'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears

MarketWatch2021-12-03

As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high. Nearly every ...

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125

CS2
·2021-12-05
Ok
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3
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andrew123
·2021-12-05
Like
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- CS2:
  Ok
  2021-12-05
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carroll
·2021-12-03
Hallo
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- LYNETTELIM:
  ok
  2021-12-04
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Kevin92
·2021-12-03
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- andrew123:
  done.like back
  2021-12-05
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- carroll:
  Hi
  2021-12-03
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Vincentttt
·2021-12-03
Yes oil is going up
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458b6d98
·2021-12-03
Maybe
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- Jloh:
  Yes
  2021-12-03
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Qwer1234
·2021-12-03
Ok
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- galaxymoon:
  ok
  2021-12-03
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NGKH
·2021-12-03
👍🏻
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- YaocH:
  A
  2021-12-03
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Universe宇宙
·2021-12-03
[惊吓]
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- Universe宇宙:
  😉
  2021-12-03
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- 小虎投资123:
  ok
  2021-12-03
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- Universe宇宙:
  buy more covid stocks to huat?
  2021-12-03
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That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608198281,"gmtCreate":1638660743534,"gmtModify":1638660744078,"author":{"id":"3576260758860416","authorId":"3576260758860416","name":"andrew123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576260758860416","authorIdStr":"3576260758860416"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608198281","repostId":2188854525,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188854525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638536261,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188854525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188854525","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked n","content":"<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p>\n<p>Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6851128,"gmtCreate":1638671600288,"gmtModify":1638671600321,"authorId":3563688986414344,"author":{"id":3563688986414344,"idStr":"3563688986414344","authorId":3563688986414344,"name":"CS2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615455e55d5ee6d62d6d1fbcbfa4e02a","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608198281,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":601502383,"gmtCreate":1638541430407,"gmtModify":1638541430565,"author":{"id":"3581250367192554","authorId":"3581250367192554","name":"carroll","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581250367192554","authorIdStr":"3581250367192554"},"htmlText":"Hallo","listText":"Hallo","text":"Hallo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601502383","repostId":2188854525,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188854525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638536261,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188854525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188854525","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked n","content":"<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p>\n<p>Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6846847,"gmtCreate":1638633314748,"gmtModify":1638633314781,"authorId":3578823206180116,"author":{"id":3578823206180116,"idStr":"3578823206180116","authorId":3578823206180116,"name":"LYNETTELIM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601502383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":601278464,"gmtCreate":1638540227980,"gmtModify":1638540228471,"author":{"id":"3576274545052910","authorId":"3576274545052910","name":"Kevin92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ff4addbbdb8d9d15fec29f9709b0c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576274545052910","authorIdStr":"3576274545052910"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601278464","repostId":2188854525,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188854525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638536261,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188854525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188854525","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked n","content":"<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p>\n<p>Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6848328,"gmtCreate":1638660766345,"gmtModify":1638660766377,"authorId":3576260758860416,"author":{"id":3576260758860416,"idStr":"3576260758860416","authorId":3576260758860416,"name":"andrew123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601278464,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done.like back","text":"done.like back","html":"done.like back"},{"id":6832522,"gmtCreate":1638541424510,"gmtModify":1638541424545,"authorId":3581250367192554,"author":{"id":3581250367192554,"idStr":"3581250367192554","authorId":3581250367192554,"name":"carroll","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601278464,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":601279695,"gmtCreate":1638539968556,"gmtModify":1638539968666,"author":{"id":"4098262897368680","authorId":"4098262897368680","name":"Vincentttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916fa9e1b698fc8e8a13d835686c2534","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4098262897368680","authorIdStr":"4098262897368680"},"htmlText":"Yes oil is going up","listText":"Yes oil is going up","text":"Yes oil is going up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601279695","repostId":2188854525,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188854525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638536261,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188854525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188854525","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked n","content":"<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p>\n<p>Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":601270623,"gmtCreate":1638539863365,"gmtModify":1638539864278,"author":{"id":"3556756933727652","authorId":"3556756933727652","name":"458b6d98","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556756933727652","authorIdStr":"3556756933727652"},"htmlText":"Maybe","listText":"Maybe","text":"Maybe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601270623","repostId":2188854525,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188854525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638536261,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188854525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188854525","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked n","content":"<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p>\n<p>Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6832226,"gmtCreate":1638540104634,"gmtModify":1638540104664,"authorId":3580281864844831,"author":{"id":3580281864844831,"idStr":"3580281864844831","authorId":3580281864844831,"name":"Jloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36842799dc971e590276c5702f7f1842","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601270623,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Yes</u>","text":"<u>Yes</u>","html":"<u>Yes</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":601245885,"gmtCreate":1638539578450,"gmtModify":1638539578623,"author":{"id":"3572867061700089","authorId":"3572867061700089","name":"Qwer1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f048323098795168028c3aee02d87a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572867061700089","authorIdStr":"3572867061700089"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601245885","repostId":2188854525,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188854525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638536261,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188854525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188854525","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked n","content":"<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p>\n<p>Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6832177,"gmtCreate":1638539918545,"gmtModify":1638539918638,"authorId":3575794610880332,"author":{"id":3575794610880332,"idStr":"3575794610880332","authorId":3575794610880332,"name":"galaxymoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5ea04417249f5778d46a4e7646b145f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601245885,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":601254582,"gmtCreate":1638538774234,"gmtModify":1638538774324,"author":{"id":"3582281917582725","authorId":"3582281917582725","name":"NGKH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5199281925fe86e7eaed99d7ef560a4c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582281917582725","authorIdStr":"3582281917582725"},"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601254582","repostId":2188854525,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188854525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638536261,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188854525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188854525","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked n","content":"<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p>\n<p>Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6831947,"gmtCreate":1638538788402,"gmtModify":1638538788433,"authorId":3565606031340333,"author":{"id":3565606031340333,"idStr":"3565606031340333","authorId":3565606031340333,"name":"YaocH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67faf39ce9d0aaf7addc33d562cb19d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601254582,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"A","text":"A","html":"A"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":601265593,"gmtCreate":1638536600724,"gmtModify":1638537194521,"author":{"id":"3585001294737518","authorId":"3585001294737518","name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorIdStr":"3585001294737518"},"htmlText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","text":"[惊吓]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601265593","repostId":2188854525,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188854525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638536261,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188854525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188854525","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked n","content":"<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p>\n<p>Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p>\n<p>\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p>\n<p>LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 20:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","Z":"Zillow","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4539":"次新股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4515":"5G概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6832346,"gmtCreate":1638540641021,"gmtModify":1638540641056,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601265593,"type":1,"supId":6832337,"prevId":0,"content":"😉","text":"😉","html":"😉"},{"id":6832337,"gmtCreate":1638540605259,"gmtModify":1638540605290,"authorId":3572736965372170,"author":{"id":3572736965372170,"idStr":"3572736965372170","authorId":3572736965372170,"name":"小虎投资123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/306219307a94107db11a1de008b9af5f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601265593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":6831619,"gmtCreate":1638536962929,"gmtModify":1638540410961,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601265593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"buy more covid stocks to huat?","text":"buy more covid stocks to huat?","html":"buy more covid stocks to huat?"},{"id":6831668,"gmtCreate":1638537201475,"gmtModify":1638537201562,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601265593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"💐🎊🎉","text":"💐🎊🎉","html":"💐🎊🎉"},{"id":6831666,"gmtCreate":1638537194474,"gmtModify":1638537194550,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601265593,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"🎉🎊💐","text":"🎉🎊💐","html":"🎉🎊💐"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":125,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}