芒格错付阿里巴巴？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

芒格错付阿里巴巴？

巨潮商业评论2021-12-01

近期高盛在对中国2022年经济发展的研判中预计，明年将是中国除了危机年份之外，历史GDP增速最低的一年（4.8%）。一家以“让天下没有难做的生意”为使命的企业，遭遇了天下生意越来越难做的局面，显然不会是什么好事情。阿里巴巴近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判：2020年下半年开始的股价回撤，至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。阿里巴巴股价表现经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后，阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续，于11月...

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109

Bobruan
·2021-12-02
阿里的云计算还是可以的，就算阿里的所有业务归零，单凭云计算也可以估值3000亿美金
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- 一罐寡言:
  阿里云本质上还是依靠淘宝的流量的，淘宝完蛋，阿里云立刻失去盈利能力，还有其技术是先进，但抵不住同行都不用啊，现在那个互联网公司不在开发自己的云业务。
  唯一能独善其身的估计也就蚂蚁金服吧
  2021-12-02
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让子弹再飞一会
·2021-12-02
阿里错付芒格吧
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蓝湖
·2021-12-02
二三月的持仓有什么好说的，也许人家早就出掉了
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KARRER
·2021-12-02
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
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studentwho
·2021-12-02
看好国运昌隆，那不买阿里腾讯蔚来小米买什么呢？
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- 曹大侠:
  韭菜成精了吗
  2021-12-02
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Youn7276
·2021-12-02
阅
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嘞撸虎7
·2021-12-02
阅
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jakbs
·2021-12-01
芒格投资那天消息出来，我直接惊了，阿里明显还要继续跌，为何此时买？为何是我的偶像芒格来买？我不理解且大受震撼，阿里从公司文化到市场竞争都很烂，这种公司怎么能被评价为优秀公司优秀管理层？虽然我知道互联网公司今年故意卖惨，但为何买入阿里？明年的数据只会更惨。
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- 一罐寡言:
  阿里整体还是有能力的，不过不得不说这笔交易确实不算特别好。但是这只不过是一个小账户而已
  2021-12-02
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- 响亮名字好回复jakbs:
  起码现阶段是错误的[微笑]
  2021-12-02
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- 股市嗦粉哥:
  涨的时候很少听到这样的言论。市场充斥着对阿里爸爸的跪舔之声。现在说这个没意思的。论股价，这票背后的资本主吃相不好。
  2021-12-02
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浮罗交怡小学生
·2021-12-01
赞阅
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斗战胜佛巴菲特
·2021-12-01
OK
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美港股韭菜
·2021-12-01
芒格也有关灯吃面的时候[开心]
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日牙湖小小凡
·2021-12-01
能说什么呢？大家都明白为什么。
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Kiddqd
·2021-12-01
错不错得过段时间看，媒体每次都幸灾乐祸，每次后面都拍大腿
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萝卜八头切
·2021-12-01
1.阿里巴巴是否能够在激烈的市场竞争中，给消费者以必选的理由？不一定要必选前三也能成事儿2.阿里巴巴是否能够实现估值的提升——从硬件（基础设施）升维到更高层次的、能够被投资者认可并给出高估值的产品？云计算芯片当然还是不确定3.阿里巴巴是否能够在经营层面、管理层面实现顺利平稳的过渡？不确定4.阿里巴巴是否能够在竞争对手的挑战中越战越勇？比较虚的问题没有意义5.阿里巴巴是否能够构筑起被广泛认同的品牌与产品文化？本身品牌就硬继续就行
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- 玉米地里吃亏:
  如果说电商，单说电商的话，阿里算是废了，估计以后会越来愈废。
  2021-12-01
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- 灌饼高手00:
  杭州马的一张嘴成就了阿里巴巴，杭州马的一张嘴也毁了阿里巴巴。
  2021-12-01
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- 迪士尼迪斯尼:
  阿里的基本盘还是没有变化的，电商这一块面临的挑战恐怕不好化解。
  2021-12-01
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mistake?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfc825cc31981fcf7465a3ecfa496ff8","symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"近期高盛在对中国2022年经济发展的研判中预计，明年将是中国除了危机年份之外，历史GDP增速最低的一年（4.8%）。\n一家以“让天下没有难做的生意”为使命的企业，遭遇了天下生意越来越难做的局面，显然不会是什么好事情。\n阿里巴巴近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判：2020年下半年开始的股价回撤，至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。\n阿里巴巴股价表现\n经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后，阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续，于11月17日出现了跌幅11.13%的大幅单日下跌，并在随后持续下跌接近10%。\n中概互联如今的惨状不必细说，而阿里是其中受到政策、产业环境甚至是竞争对手单点狙击最严重的巨头，甚至可以不加之一。包括大量阿里巴巴内部人士在内，已经有不少人对其态度转向悲观。\n谁也没想到的是，寒冬中的阿里，最大的温暖竟来自大洋彼岸——对中国企业一直有好感的芒格，通过旗下的Daily Journal买入阿里巴巴并不断增持。\n如果从规模上看，Daily Journal的买入规模其实并不大（相比伯克希尔·哈撒韦），3月持有阿里3750万美元的股票，持仓暴增82.7%后，持仓市值也仅提升至4500万美元。\n来自投资泰斗级人物的信心，远比这4500万美元持仓更有价值。但对于芒格来说，即便是4500万美元的持仓也不会轻易买入。Daily Journal的每一笔重仓下注，都暗暗关系到自己的“一世英名”。\n更何况，芒格与巴菲特对待中国企业不同的态度由来已久。\n01 老搭档的态度差异\n\n 除2008年对比亚迪的投资，以及2003年投资了港股中国石油之外，巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。\n\n众所周知，芒格本人非常看好比亚迪并毫不吝惜对其的赞赏。今年2月，伴随着比亚迪股价的不断上涨，他再次谈起自己的爱股时，展示出了不同于以往的一面：\n\n 我其实是很少持有像比亚迪这样的股票，（估值）已经高到让你流鼻血的地步。我也是在不断的在学习。我们非常喜欢这家公司，也喜欢管理层，这就是我们的想法，所以我们还是非常忠诚于自己的想法。\n\n出于对比亚迪的认可，芒格甚至强调了自己也在不断的“学习”，这其中暗含的意味不言而喻。而经过了连续两年几乎不断的上涨之后，比亚迪已经排到了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持股市值的前列，这是此前从未出现过的事情。\n但巴菲特始终对于中国企业没有太多信任。在过去多年投资方向的拓展中，他先后开始投资科技硬件行业、云计算、新能源等领域，在国别上，介入过德国、韩国和日本等国家的企业，但在中国企业方面，除2008年对比亚迪的投资，以及2003年投资了港股中国石油之外，巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。\n\n中国石油股份股价表现\n令很多中国价值投资者意难平的是，就连他们心目中与巴菲特价值投资理念最为吻合的茅台，巴菲特也迟迟没有过任何形式的买入操作。\n反而是芒格，通过李录旗下的喜马拉雅基金，间接投资了一些中国的优秀企业，除了比亚迪之外，比较知名的案例还包括了邮储银行港股。\n巴菲特曾经表示“中国市场很大，有非常多的可能性，如果在中国能找到合适的行业、合适的时间、合适的管理团队，我们会毫不犹豫地投资。”\n但说是一回事，真正投资却又是另外一回事。对比巴菲特对中国企业的态度，更显芒格亲自买入阿里巴巴的难能可贵。\n02 好坏未定的标签\n\n 在政策层面的反垄断之外，来自“市场层面的反垄断”力量甚至更强。\n\n在投资做到一定的阶段之后，高手们的一举一动都被市场所密切关注，并积极寻求效仿的可能。\n最典型者就是高瓴资本在2021年的境遇：任何布局，不论是二级市场买入还是定增还是一级市场投资后的上市，都吸引了大批散户投资者“抄作业”。\n自身对于市场巨大的影响力，也是大佬们面对的压力与风险的一部分：放弃贴在自己身上光辉耀眼的标签是很难的事情，给自己身上贴上一个好坏未定的标签也不容易。\n买入阿里巴巴对于芒格来说，就相当于在临近100岁的时候，给自己贴了一个全新的中国互联网标签。\n芒格的投资，对于身处逆境中的阿里来说，是效果卓著的利好。其面向资本市场释放出的价值，远胜CEO张勇接受任何海外媒体的采访。而在账面的盈亏得失之外，芒格却必须为这笔投资付出更大的潜在的声誉风险。\n几乎全球的投资者几乎都已经知道了芒格对阿里巴巴的“重仓买入”（其实只是Daily Journal的重仓），但阿里巴巴所面对的困难却是实实在在的——包括了监管对企业扩张边界的限制，以拼多多、抖音、美团为代表的竞争对手的冲击，以及企业文化层面的巨大挑战。\n在芒格过去数十年的投资生涯中，他都以“买入优秀公司”闻名于世。在一个艰难不利的环境下投资阿里巴巴，是否会是好的选择？\n至少从2021年的情况来看，这些担忧是被印证的。50%的下跌并没有成为阿里巴巴股价下跌的终点。\n对于阿里来说尤其不利的一点是，在政策层面的反垄断之外，来自“市场力量的反垄断”力量甚至更强。零售行业的新一轮商业模式创新，对于传统电商在资本市场上的估值造成了不利影响。\n03 阿里巴巴重走苹果路？\n\n 如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌，但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知，并恢复上涨？\n\n伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资中国石油和比亚迪，两笔投资双双获得巨大成功。虽然对阿里巴巴的投资仅是在芒格治下不到一亿美元的小账户下进行，但也不免被搬出来比较。\n但三笔投资有着非常明显的不同，甚至可以被归类到三种完全不同的风格逻辑里面：\n对于比亚迪的投资更像是一笔风险投资。在《李录卖飞了比亚迪》一文中，巨潮分析李录在一级市场上有过从业经历，并将这些经验融入到二级市场的投资中，断定王传福是一个“韦尔奇和爱迪生的混合体”，伯克希尔·哈撒韦也因此入股约18亿港元。\n\n比亚迪股份股价表现\n如今这18亿港元已经变成了将近700亿港元。从投入过程到持股周期到回报数额，这笔投资都有着非常浓厚的早期投资味道，且芒格的介入程度非常高。\n中国石油的投资更像是一笔纯正的巴菲特式投资，买入被低估的周期股投资，当时中国石油港股的市盈率仅有三倍。\n而芒格对于阿里巴巴的投资与这两笔投资都有不同，更接近于巴菲特对苹果公司的投资。对苹果的投资发生于2016年，当时的苹果正处于被资本市场重新认知的阶段——在此之前很长时间，苹果都被认为只是一家硬件企业。\n\n苹果公司股价表现\n更类似的是，伯克希尔·哈撒韦入股苹果之后，苹果也出现了一波幅度巨大的下跌，以至于有人认为巴菲特的投资失败了。\n如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌，但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知，并恢复上涨？\n芒格的簇拥们、阿里巴巴的股东们都期待着这一天。但如果这笔投资能够最终与伯克希尔·哈撒韦对苹果的投资一样扭转局势，人们需要思考以下的前提条件：\n\n 1.阿里巴巴是否能够在激烈的市场竞争中，给消费者以必选的理由？\n\n\n 2.阿里巴巴是否能够实现估值的提升——从硬件（基础设施）升维到更高层次的、能够被投资者认可并给出高估值的产品？\n\n\n 3.阿里巴巴是否能够在经营层面、管理层面实现顺利平稳的过渡？\n\n\n 4.阿里巴巴是否能够在竞争对手的挑战中越战越勇？\n\n\n 5.阿里巴巴是否能够构筑起被广泛认同的品牌与产品文化？\n\n这些问题的回答，会直接展示出阿里巴巴在困境中是否具有足够的韧性，而这些特质要远比一两年内的财务数据是否亮丽更加重要。\n04 写在最后\n芒格本人对于零售企业的投资有很深刻的认知。\n在接受《证券市场红周刊》的采访时，芒格表示自己一生最成功的三笔投资就是巴菲特、Costco、李录。其中Costco就是全球最成功的仓储超市，这家公司及其罕见地在互联网零售企业的冲击中独善其身，2008年以来股价几乎从未下跌，市值已经逼近2500亿元。\n芒格将Costco定位为“通过天才管理成为行业内翘楚的典型”，这与他对王传福的认可有异曲同工之处。\n但芒格曾经评价马云：“我认为马云评论中国政府的做法非常傲慢。这不是马云应该做的。”\n相比之下，他对于中国经济整体的信心更足，也许这才是他选择买入阿里巴巴最核心的原因：\n\n 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