4680的到来意味着磷酸铁锂热潮的落幕？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

4680的到来意味着磷酸铁锂热潮的落幕？

华尔街见闻2021-11-08

紧张刺激的三季度财报季才刚刚过去，上周末各大电池厂商就再次用一波密集的动力电池产能扩产规划迎来四季度的到来。今年不愧是“电池扩产年”，几乎每个季度都有一次电池厂商大规模扩产的计划传出。而这次不仅龙头宁德时代又抛出两大扩产项目（在厦门、贵州建设电池生产基地项目，总投资分别不超过80和70亿元），亿纬锂能也分别投资305.21亿元和62亿元在荆门建设152.61GWh的锂电池及系统研发生产基地，以及...

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mjng
·2021-11-09
Great
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BRAVERY
·2021-11-09
早安，來學習
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Youn7276
·2021-11-09
阅
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BP小林
·2021-11-09
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
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- BP小林:
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  2021-11-09
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Sam Ang
·2021-11-09
阅
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杂烩饭大人
·2021-11-09
逻辑清晰能自洽。
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- Youn7276:
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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644353><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>紧张刺激的三季度财报季才刚刚过去，上周末各大电池厂商就再次用一波密集的动力电池产能扩产规划迎来四季度的到来。今年不愧是“电池扩产年”，几乎每个季度都有一次电池厂商大规模扩产的计划传出。\n而这次不仅龙头宁德时代又抛出两大扩产项目（在厦门、贵州建设电池生产基地项目，总投资分别不超过80和70亿元），亿纬锂能也分别投资305.21亿元和62亿元在荆门建设152.61GWh的锂电池及系统研发生产基地，以及...</p>\n\n<a 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boom?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df4c76414c2ee16dfca8aff2f27e3d9","symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9,"002594":0.9,"01211":0.9},"content_text":"紧张刺激的三季度财报季才刚刚过去，上周末各大电池厂商就再次用一波密集的动力电池产能扩产规划迎来四季度的到来。今年不愧是“电池扩产年”，几乎每个季度都有一次电池厂商大规模扩产的计划传出。\n而这次不仅龙头宁德时代又抛出两大扩产项目（在厦门、贵州建设电池生产基地项目，总投资分别不超过80和70亿元），亿纬锂能也分别投资305.21亿元和62亿元在荆门建设152.61GWh的锂电池及系统研发生产基地，以及20GWh乘用车用大圆柱电池生产线及辅助设施项目、16GWh方形磷酸铁锂电池生产线及辅助设施项目；此外锂电巨头松下也官宣4680电池接近商用成熟，拟对其墨西哥产能进行进一步扩产。\n电池厂商的“扩产潮”的深远影响在此前的文章中已有详细概述，这次华尔街见闻·见智研究将会把重心集中在4680电池这个特斯拉寄有厚望的新型电池上，有些重点内容和误区也为各位投资者指出。\n4680究竟强在哪？\n首先，圆柱动力电池全球范围来看大规模使用的也就是特斯拉，欧洲车企如戴姆勒、日产、雷诺、大众、现代等主要使用软包电池，国内车企多使用方形电池，车企电池的选择和规划并不是短时间就能进行更改的，所以即使4680电池顺利推出并且效果良好，其他车企或将跟进尝试使用圆柱电池，但短时间来看主要的客户也是集中在特斯拉身上。而特斯拉去年电池日推出的新型电池4680电池，数字46指的是圆柱电池的直径46mm，80则是表示电池的高度为80mm。\n而相比起此前特斯拉使用的圆柱锂电池的尺寸18650和21700，4680电池的优势体现在电池容量、生产成本和效率。电池容量的提升原因就在于尺寸的变大，这也不是4680本身的特例，此前的21700电池也比18650的电池容量多50%，4680则是2170的电池容量的5倍（不是能量密度提升5倍），而电池容量的提升也会导致续航里程有所提升（提高16%）。\n而生产效率的提升和成本的降低（下降14%）则体现在大电芯上，同样用于75KWh的电动车里面，老版的18650需要7100个电芯左右，2170圆柱需要4400+个电芯，而新型电池4680仅需要950个电芯组成，更少的单体数量意味着PACK时空间利用率提高，同时生产组装需要的时间减少，所以成组效率大大提升。\n4680主打高镍，但并未唯一\n在华尔街见闻·见智研究此前的前瞻文章《4680电池势在必行，潜在合作方谁会是最后赢家？ | 见智研究所》中就提到过松下、宁德时代、LG新能源和亿纬锂能等都将是特斯拉4680电池的未来潜在合作方。目前从各自的公告情况来看，最接近商业化程度的还是松下，采用的正极也是高镍三元，这点和特斯拉月初与赣锋锂业签订了3年的氢氧化锂合约，加码高镍三元也是相符合，但是这并不代表着高镍三元就是4680电池的唯一选择。\n首先，今年以来特斯拉已经多次在高调宣布在未来将逐渐采用磷酸铁锂电池，甚至提出了特斯拉的标准续航升级版Model 3和标准续航版Model Y都将使用磷酸铁锂电池，来取代之前的三元锂电池，所以特斯拉是不会轻易就放弃磷酸铁锂电池。\n其次，4680电池之所以有先入为主的认为将完全使用三元电池，是因为4680电池所替代的是原本的21700和18650尺寸的三元电池，而在此之前，特斯拉的三元锂电池是由松下和LG新能源提供，在中国的车型的磷酸铁锂电池则是由宁德时代供应，而早在2008年就为特斯拉的Roadster提18650钴酸锂电池的松下也是目前目前全球TOP5（宁德时代、LG新能源、松下、比亚迪、SKI）的动力电池企业中，唯一一个未宣布进军磷酸铁锂电池的电池厂商，所以他家的4680电池采用高镍三元合情合理。\n但是这并不是表示4680电池就不能使用磷酸铁锂电池，4680本身只是一种电池尺寸，并不是一种三元锂电池的独有技术，就像比亚迪的刀片电池，虽然使用的是磷酸铁锂正极材料，但是采用三元正极材料也是可以的。只是因为此前两代电池21700和18650都是三元锂电池，同时又都是老牌电池厂商松下提供，所以才认为是三元锂电池。但是随着我国优秀的电池厂商有望入局4680电池的竞争，生产磷酸铁锂版本的4680电池也是极有可能的。\n至于部分市场观点认为高端车使用高镍三元4680，中低端车使用普通磷酸铁锂电池，华尔街见闻·见智研究认为可能性不大，今年来看，1-9月特斯拉的车型总销量为627350辆，其中高端车型Model S和Model X销量总计才13185辆（同比下滑-65.3%），而Model 3和Model Y的销量总计614165辆（同比增长2.2倍左右）。\n可见仅靠Model S和Model X是撑不起来整体销量的，Model 3和Model 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