高盛：旧经济的“复仇”_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

高盛：旧经济的“复仇”

华尔街见闻2021-10-22

在各国努力从化石燃料转向更清洁能源之际，全球能源供应的脆弱性通过这次疫情暴露了出来。高盛全球大宗商品研究主管Jeffff Currie周四在英国金融时报撰文称：人们很容易将当前“旧经济”中的供应短缺——从能源到其他基础材料，甚至农产品，归咎于主要由疫情造成的一系列暂时中断，但除了少数劳动力短缺之外，这些供应瓶颈与疫情几乎没有关系。相反，今天大宗商品危机的根源可以追溯到金融危机...

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RyanYe
·2021-10-23
所以商品不是疫情恢复好的国家生产的。瞎说
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不善言辞的凯
·2021-10-23
化石燃料当前还是主流啊
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1
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Lydia758
·2021-10-23
阅
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云里梦里飞
·2021-10-23
板块轮动？
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神话者
·2021-10-23
[微笑]
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4
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Youn7276
·2021-10-23
阅了
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5
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Tummy
·2021-10-23
赞👍
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5
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收起
- Tummy:
  赞👍
  2021-10-26
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- 神话者:
  [微笑]
  2021-10-23
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Fattkhong
·2021-10-22
[得意]
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4
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- Fattkhong:
  [害羞]
  2021-10-22
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人们很容易将当前“旧经济”中的供","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"translate_title":"Goldman Sachs: Revenge of the Old Economy","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32766b9e3d38f4612d8f9fd9a26c2778","symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9},"content_text":"在各国努力从化石燃料转向更清洁能源之际，全球能源供应的脆弱性通过这次疫情暴露了出来。\n高盛全球大宗商品研究主管Jeffff Currie周四在英国金融时报撰文称：\n\n 人们很容易将当前“旧经济”中的供应短缺——从能源到其他基础材料，甚至农产品，归咎于主要由疫情造成的一系列暂时中断，但除了少数劳动力短缺之外，这些供应瓶颈与疫情几乎没有关系。\n\n\n 相反， \n 今天大宗商品危机的根源可以追溯到金融危机的余波，以及随后十年的回报率下降和旧经济的长期投资不足。\n\n旧经济的“复仇”\nJeffff Currie在文章中写道：\n为应对2008年后的经济停滞，政策制定者通过央行量化宽松来支持复苏。结果是：收入较低的家庭面临着实际工资增长缓慢、经济不安全、信贷限制收紧以及越来越难以负担的昂贵实物资产。另一方面，高收入家庭则受益于量化宽松带来的金融资产通胀。\n这种结果上的差异严重打击了旧经济。高收入家庭可能掌握着美元，但低收入家庭决定着商品需求量，因为他们的数量更为庞大，且更倾向于消费实物商品而不是服务。\n随着大宗商品需求的减少，旧经济部门的回报也随之减少。较低的回报导致长周期的旧经济资本支出减少（传统上需要有5-10年的充足需求），而有利于技术等短周期“新经济”领域的投资。\n事实上，旧经济已经是过度建设、负债累累和污染过度。虽然旧经济仅占全球GDP的35%左右，但至少占到企业总损失的70%，非金融债务的90%，以及碳排放的80%。这也难怪投资者更喜欢大型科技公司，而不是石油和铜。\n尤其是2015年油价暴跌后，市场受够了财富的毁灭，对旧经济的投资大幅下降。\n根据Rystad Energy的数据，2010年至2015年，全球石油和天然气勘探支出（不包括页岩气）平均每年约为1000亿美元，但在原油价格暴跌后的几年里，该数据平均下降至500亿美元左右。\n与此同时，随着气候变化成为人们最关心的问题，投资者更加关注ESG（环境、社会和治理问题），进一步限制了对旧经济的投资。\n由此阻碍了大宗商品产能的增长。特别是在油气行业，投资者出于ESG的原因进行剥离，加剧了本已日益严重的投资不足问题。\n随着各国从疫情后进入复苏，这些供应限制的严重性得到突显，暴露出旧经济有多么捉襟见肘。\n新经济的增长速度不足以填补缺口\n在过去20年里，风力、太阳能发电厂和其他可再生能源的发展速度加快，因为规模经济降低了技术成本，与基于化石燃料的发电相比更具竞争力。\n国际可再生能源署(IRENA)的数据显示，2020年，不包括水力发电和抽水蓄能在内的全球可再生能源装机容量超过了150万兆瓦，而2000年还不到5.5万兆瓦。\n在美国和欧洲，在政府补贴和其他旨在减少煤炭使用的政策的帮助下，可再生能源获得了一定的市场份额。2019年疫情爆发前，美国可再生能源消费量自1885年以来首次超过煤炭消费量。这种增长预计将继续下去。\n国际能源署的数据显示，2020年全球可再生能源发电量增加了28万兆瓦，较2019年增长了45%。该机构将这一增长率称为“新常态”，并预计今明两年将保持类似的增长率。\n尽管如此，化石燃料仍占全球发电的大部分。根据IRENA的数据，2019年可再生能源仍只占全球发电量的26%。\n某种程度上，风能和水力发电等可再生资源的供应低于预期，进一步推高了对化石燃料的需求。\n而这其中的困难在于：试图加快向清洁能源过渡的政府发现，这需要大量投资，并可能遇到意想不到的障碍。\n在美国，加州正按照州法律的要求，让大量化石燃料发电厂退出市场，以帮助其在 2045 年之前实现电网脱碳。\n加州公共事业委员会已下令各公用事业公司购买数量空前的可再生能源、电池存储和其他无碳资源，以填补这一缺口，并跟上未来几年的增长：超过14000兆瓦，约为该州夏季峰值需求的三分之一。\n尽管两家公司目前都在正轨上，但加州能源委员会和该州电网运营商最近表示，他们担心这些收购可能不足以防止未来夏季的电力短缺。该州还计划在2025年前淘汰最后一座核电站 Diablo Canyon，该核电站提供该州近10%的电力。\n今年夏天，森林大火中断了电力传输，严重的干旱减少了整个西部的水力发电，包括胡佛大坝。该州电网运营商多次呼吁居民节约用电，并采取紧急措施购买额外供应，该州最近还在发电厂增加了四台临时天然气发电机，这才勉强避免了轮流限电。\n新的大宗商品超级周期即将到来\n由于疫情后市场对商品的需求仍在激增，而随着基础设施老化和投资减少，旧经济供应和交付大宗商品及其制成品的能力也随之下降，与此同时，新经济的增长速度不足以填补缺口。\n在这种背景下，正如Jeffff 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