滞胀之下无牛市？复盘美国滞涨时期的金融市场_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

滞胀之下无牛市？复盘美国滞涨时期的金融市场

格隆汇2021-10-21

随着商品处于开采周期末端、即将进入投资周期，高通胀可能并非暂时性现象。本文旨在通过复盘历史上美国滞涨时期的资产表现给未来提供一定参考。我们区分了严格意义上的“滞涨”和“类滞涨”两种情景复盘行情。二战后共有八段滞涨时期，我们进一步将其拆分为通胀上行期、滞涨期和通胀下行期，并复盘各阶段资产表现。此外还有五段类滞涨时期，我们也对其加以分析。 2021年4月后我们已经处于类滞涨阶段。根据历史经验，类滞涨...

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107

hhyw
·2021-10-22
熊来了，快跑🙃🙃🙃
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1
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哈喽神
·2021-10-22
[开心]
回复
点赞
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tanvstan
·2021-10-22
胡说八道，美国的经济数据显示出经济增长停滞了？最近银行业的财报都出来了都在增长，睁着眼睛说瞎话也是项技能呢……
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点赞
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EricBong
·2021-10-22
好
回复
1
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Youn7276
·2021-10-22
阅
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1
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我是歌手
·2021-10-21
呃不一定吧
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1
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天下事
·2021-10-21
恕我愚钝，在此滞涨时期，股市将向何方?
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2
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康康的
·2021-10-21
好
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2
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收起
- Paulyang:
  赞一个
  2021-10-21
  回复
  举报
- 康康的:
  好
  2021-10-21
  回复
  举报
zh2021
·2021-10-21
[开心]
回复
1
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收起
- 天下事:
  恕我愚钝，在此滞涨时期，股市将向何方?
  2021-10-21
  回复
  举报
- zh2021:
  [财迷]
  2021-10-21
  回复
  举报
aiorbits
·2021-10-21
比特币有机会
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3
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- Youn7276:
  好
  2021-10-22
  回复
  举报
- Paulyang:
  同意
  2021-10-21
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- ccssyy:
  ok
  2021-10-21
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States","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71bfc318d104829d07e2a5da45f29717","symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"518880":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"FXA":0.9,"FXC":0.9,"FXF":0.9,"FXY":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"USO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"YCS":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"EUO":0.9,"AUDmain":0.9,"CADmain":0.9,"CHFmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"HGmain":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"MAUDmain":0.9,"MEURmain":0.9,"MGBPmain":0.9,"NZDmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9},"content_text":"随着商品处于开采周期末端、即将进入投资周期，高通胀可能并非暂时性现象。本文旨在通过复盘历史上美国滞涨时期的资产表现给未来提供一定参考。我们区分了严格意义上的“滞涨”和“类滞涨”两种情景复盘行情。\n二战后共有八段滞涨时期，我们进一步将其拆分为通胀上行期、滞涨期和通胀下行期，并复盘各阶段资产表现。此外还有五段类滞涨时期，我们也对其加以分析。\n2021年4月后我们已经处于类滞涨阶段。根据历史经验，类滞涨情境下，联储很可能于2022年加息。表现最好的资产仍是商品类，美债期限利差下行的确定性也较高，其他资产走势的不确定性较大。\n2021年以来，全球主要经济体通胀数据居高不下，与此同时第二季度后经济复苏边际减弱。考虑到大宗商品进入开采周期后端、即将进入投资周期，通胀可能并非暂时性现象。此外，目前我们正在经历库存周期下行，而下一轮库存周期（短周期）下行，可能会叠加经济的投资周期（中周期）以及地产周期（长周期）共振下行，形成“深度衰退”。此外，目前全球的高债务率又使得货币政策在应对通胀问题时瞻前顾后。站在当下，我们需要认真探讨滞涨现象以及其造成的系列影响。那么如何定义滞涨？滞涨时期资产表现存在怎样的特征？我们希望通过复盘历史资产表现，给未来提供一定参考。\n一、定义“滞涨”\n“滞涨（Stagflation）”是停滞（Stagnation）与通胀（Inflation）的组合词，最早由英国保守党政治家IainMacleod在1965年的国会演讲中提出，他用“滞涨”描述当时英国的高失业率和高通胀并存。1970年开始《经济学人》等刊物也开始使用“滞涨”一词。现在通常认为滞涨是指高通胀、高失业率、经济增长放缓同时出现的经济环境。传统凯恩斯理论认为通胀与经济衰退（高失业）相互排斥，即菲利普斯曲线。因而以高利率打压通胀将加剧失业，滞涨使得货币政策面对两难选择。\n金融市场实践中并无定量的滞涨标准，为了便于研究，我们定义严格意义上的滞涨需要同时符合高通胀、高失业率和经济增长放缓；定义高通胀、经济增长放缓，但失业率未明显抬升的情景为“类滞涨”。\n本文研究对象为美国，以下数据频率为月度。考虑到数据可得性，我们以美国CPI同比代表通胀，以10年均值为临界值，高于10年均值便进入“高通胀”区间。失业率使用美国U3失业率，主要观察失业率快速上升的拐点是否与高通胀重合。以美国工业产出同比代表经济增长，同比增速下降即认定为经济增长放缓。二战后符合严格滞涨标准的时期主要有八段，1950年代、1970至1980经历了四段较长的滞涨时期，1990年后的滞涨持续时间都较为短暂。此外我们也对几段类滞涨时期进行了研究。\n\n二、复盘滞涨与类滞胀时期资产表现\n为了更好地复盘市场走势，我们将滞涨时期拆分为三个阶段：（1）通胀上行期，此时CPI同比高于10年均值，但失业率尚未进入快速上升的拐点。（2）滞涨期，此时CPI同比继续走高或稳定于高增速，失业率开始飙升，经济衰退。（3）通胀下行期，CPI同比见顶回落，失业率逐渐下降，经济触底复苏。\n我们复盘的资产主要包括标普500指数，美元指数、WTI原油、黄金现货、COMEX期铜、美国10Y国债、美债10Y-1Y期限利差（1Y日度数据长度与10Y匹配）。同时我们也追踪美国政策利率变化的情况，但由于1972年之前并未设定联邦基金目标利率，因而我们以银行最优贷款利率作为替代性指标。1972年后二者趋势完全同步。数据频率为日度。\n\n\n进入通胀上行期后，标普500往往陷入宽幅震荡，难以出现趋势性上涨，主要原因可能是短期限利率在这一时期开始快速抬升。美元指数在这一时期全面走弱：尽管进入加息周期，但1972年美元尚处于“尼克松冲击”的负面影响之中，1977年美元下跌主要由于美国国际收支与财政赤字迅速恶化。2007年和2011年则已经处于次贷危机后的降息周期。美元指数的走弱似乎存在一定偶然性。毫无意外地，原油、黄金、铜均有良好表现。从上涨持续性而言，原油>黄金>铜。利率方面，除了2007年和2010年处于次贷危机而降息，其他时期短期政策利率均快速抬升。除2007年，长端收益率均趋于上行，但由于短端利率上行更快，期限利差下行。2007年由于快速降息、2010年由于经济见底复苏而出现期限利差上行。\n\n除了上文通胀上行期演化的六段滞涨期，在1990年、2001年也曾出现短暂的滞涨（没有明显的三阶段特征）。这两段时间我们也纳入统计。标普500在滞涨时期会出现震荡下跌行情，1979年沃尔克上台之初带来的情绪利好也只是昙花一现，很快完全回吐了涨幅。美元指数表现与利率周期有较大关系，若处于加息周期中则倾向于上涨，若处于降息周期则倾向于横盘震荡或下跌。随着利率攀升抑制通胀预期和经济降温，原油、黄金、铜在这一时期开始完成筑顶，并可能在滞涨后期开始回落。利率方面，除1979年沃尔克上台持续大幅加息外，通常滞涨时期对应着加息周期的尾声，政策利率趋于平稳。长端收益率筑顶或略有回落，期限利差基本处于横盘。\n\n进入通胀下行期，经济走出滞涨阴霾开始复苏。标普500在这一时期会出现持续性的上涨行情，1970年、2008年则在这一时期完成筑底上涨。比较特殊的是1980年后，由于高利率一直保持到1982年引发经济二次衰退，标普500也经历了上涨、下跌、再上涨的过程。美元指数随着基本面的好转表现较好，普遍趋于上行。原油、黄金、铜在这一时期均呈现出回落态势，唯一例外的是1971年后“尼克松冲击”带来的黄金价格飙升。利率方面，除沃尔克时期继续维持高利率，其他时期政策利率均出现下降。长端收益率继续维持高位盘整，期限利差则趋于上行。\n\n最后，我们盘点历史上的五段“类滞涨”时期资产表现。标普500在这一时期往往出现阶段性的筑顶和回调行情，主要原因还是在于持续性的货币政策收紧。美元指数主要表现为震荡上行。原油、黄金、铜在这一时期表现较好，但要出现大幅上涨需要产能周期的配合。利率方面，美联储基本都会采取持续加息应对，长端收益率逐渐见顶回落，期限利差趋于下行。\n\n三、总结及展望\n回顾历史上的八段滞涨时期，标普500在通胀上行期和滞涨期均承压，在通胀下行期完成筑底并展开反弹。美元指数在通胀上行期和滞涨期均表现不佳，通胀下行期倾向于走强；不过应当考虑到几段通胀上行期具有特殊性。原油、黄金、铜在通胀上行期和滞涨期表现强势，在滞涨后期和通胀下行期筑顶回落。上涨持续性原油>黄金>铜。美联储在通胀上行期和滞涨期加息应对，长端收益率在这一时期也趋于上行，期限利差则会阶段性下行；在通胀下行期进入降息周期，长端收益率筑顶回落，期限利差上行。\n2021年4月后我们已经处于类滞涨阶段，即CPI高于10年均值、增长同比增速放缓，但失业率未见明显抬升。历史上类似情境下，美联储均以持续加息应对，因此2022年美联储较市场预期更早加息的风险不容忽视。类滞涨情境下，表现最好的资产仍是商品类，美债期限利差下行的确定性也较高，其他资产走势的不确定性较大。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":851065851,"gmtCreate":1634859936287,"gmtModify":1634860007653,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"熊来了，快跑🙃🙃🙃","listText":"熊来了，快跑🙃🙃🙃","text":"熊来了，快跑🙃🙃🙃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851065851","repostId":2177372824,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":851062404,"gmtCreate":1634859906255,"gmtModify":1634859906255,"author":{"id":"3569643701206332","authorId":"3569643701206332","name":"哈喽神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7d95e51f52763b03c658192cabacbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569643701206332","idStr":"3569643701206332"},"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"li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