Supply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Supply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem

The Straits Times2021-10-19

The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power. Their dilemma is ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

RuyiOng
·2021-10-19
Ok
回复
2
举报
MonkeyApe
·2021-10-19
Hello
回复
2
举报
收起
- RuyiOng:
  ok
  2021-10-19
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

关于我们·老虎社区守则·老虎社区账号管理规范·老虎社区服务协议·老虎社区隐私政策

公司名称：北京至简风宜信息技术有限公司

违法和不良信息投诉：010-5681-3562（工作时间9:30-18:30）

邮箱：service@laohu8.com

营业执照：91110105MA01A4U55R

ICP备：京ICP备18016422号

网安备：京公网安备11010502036490

关注我们

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2176178021?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-10-19 15:35","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2176178021","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Supply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem","media":"The Straits Times","content":"<div>\n<p>The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Supply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSupply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-19 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem","article_id":"2176178021","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"straits_highlight","url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"","selectors":"body","filters":"","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2176178021","pubTimestamp":1634628924,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"straits_highlight","name":"Straits Times"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"straitstimes.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"供给紧缩的通货膨胀给中央银行带来了一个无法解决的问题","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is that it's hard to tell just how much of the inflation is being driven by a resurgence of demand as lockdowns end, and how much by supply strains caused by log-jammed ports and shortages of materials and workers.\nRaising interest rates now would temper the demand that lifted the world out of last year's recession, but do little to ease the supply bottlenecks. If shortages then ease as trade returns to normal, policy could end up too tight and throttle the recovery.\nBut if the central banks hold back and the supply squeeze endures, that could entrench expectations of higher inflation - prompting consumers and companies to push wages and prices up. In that scenario, central banks may later be forced to hit the brakes even harder.\n\"Trying to work out the difference between demand and supply-side drivers right now is incredibly difficult,\" Stephen King, senior economic adviser to HSBC Holdings, told Bloomberg Television. \"Most central banks would probably admit at least in private that inflation is far higher than they had initially expected. You can see why some of them are biting their nails and becoming ever more nervous.\"\n'Have to Act'\nWorldwide, consumer prices have risen more than 4 percent over the past twelve months, with inflation outside of food and energy at its highest in the past decade, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.\nIn the UK, where inflation is on course to run at twice the Bank of England's target this year, governor Andrew Bailey warned on Sunday that the central bank will \"have to act\" - even though he's repeatedly highlighted the limits to what central banks can do.\nTraders are betting the Bank of England will raise its key rate to 0.5 percent by the end of this year. That would place it alongside Norway and New Zealand among the small number of developed-economy central banks to have boosted borrowing costs during the pandemic.\nThe Federal Reserve isn't about to join that club anytime soon, but it is poised to give the go-ahead next month to taper its US$120-billion (S$169 billion)-per month asset purchase programme. While chair Jerome Powell has sought to delink that move from any hike in interest rates, other policy makers have pressed for an early end to the bond purchases so the Fed has leeway to boost rates if needed in the back half of next year.\n'Prick the Bubble'\nThe Fed is broadly sticking to its view that transitory factors are largely to blame for elevated inflation. But policy makers at the September meeting saw risks decidedly tilted to the upside. Investors are now pricing in two quarter-point rate increases next year.\nGreg Peters, head of PGIM Fixed Income's multi-sector and strategy, questioned how much the Fed could do to counter a rise in inflation stemming from a pandemic-driven disruption of supply chains.\n\"I'm not convinced that the Fed has any control around these issues,\" he said in an Oct 15 interview on Bloomberg Television. \"Pundits are talking about the Fed needs to prick the bubble, they need to raise rates. To do what, exactly? To fix the supply-chain issues? Do you really want to crush the labor market?\"\nThe European Central Bank seems set on continuing to support the recovery - influenced in part by its own history of over-reacting to signs of inflation: The ECB raised rates in 2008 and 2011 before having to turn tail as the economy slowed. President Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that the current spike in inflation is unlikely to last.\n'Buy Time'\nBusiness leaders, though, are warning of longer-lasting price pressures. On Monday (Oct 18), Royal Philips lowered its growth and earnings guidance after the shortage of semiconductors weighed on sales. Chief executive officer Frans van Houten expects staffing costs to remain high even as materials inflation subsides.\nIf the combination of strong demand and disrupted deliveries continues, it raises the risk that central banks will be forced into \"an abrupt shift in policy sometime later,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.\nOne way for monetary policy makers to thread the needle would be by using hawkish rhetoric - to keep a lid on inflation expectations - while holding back on the actual interest-rate increases that would slow the recovery, according to John Briggs, global head of desk strategy at Natwest Markets. It's a strategy \"to buy time to get to the other side,\" he wrote, \"and hope that the current supply-induced surges in both goods and energy prices eases by the time we see early 2022.\"","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":850778310,"gmtCreate":1634632635581,"gmtModify":1634632636095,"author":{"id":"3581843901915824","authorId":"3581843901915824","name":"RuyiOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0f607e2db1a857ce6e533079ad3d78","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581843901915824","authorIdStr":"3581843901915824"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850778310","repostId":2176178021,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2176178021","pubTimestamp":1634628924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2176178021?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Supply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2176178021","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers ","content":"<div>\n<p>The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Supply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSupply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-19 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2176178021","content_text":"The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is that it's hard to tell just how much of the inflation is being driven by a resurgence of demand as lockdowns end, and how much by supply strains caused by log-jammed ports and shortages of materials and workers.\nRaising interest rates now would temper the demand that lifted the world out of last year's recession, but do little to ease the supply bottlenecks. If shortages then ease as trade returns to normal, policy could end up too tight and throttle the recovery.\nBut if the central banks hold back and the supply squeeze endures, that could entrench expectations of higher inflation - prompting consumers and companies to push wages and prices up. In that scenario, central banks may later be forced to hit the brakes even harder.\n\"Trying to work out the difference between demand and supply-side drivers right now is incredibly difficult,\" Stephen King, senior economic adviser to HSBC Holdings, told Bloomberg Television. \"Most central banks would probably admit at least in private that inflation is far higher than they had initially expected. You can see why some of them are biting their nails and becoming ever more nervous.\"\n'Have to Act'\nWorldwide, consumer prices have risen more than 4 percent over the past twelve months, with inflation outside of food and energy at its highest in the past decade, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.\nIn the UK, where inflation is on course to run at twice the Bank of England's target this year, governor Andrew Bailey warned on Sunday that the central bank will \"have to act\" - even though he's repeatedly highlighted the limits to what central banks can do.\nTraders are betting the Bank of England will raise its key rate to 0.5 percent by the end of this year. That would place it alongside Norway and New Zealand among the small number of developed-economy central banks to have boosted borrowing costs during the pandemic.\nThe Federal Reserve isn't about to join that club anytime soon, but it is poised to give the go-ahead next month to taper its US$120-billion (S$169 billion)-per month asset purchase programme. While chair Jerome Powell has sought to delink that move from any hike in interest rates, other policy makers have pressed for an early end to the bond purchases so the Fed has leeway to boost rates if needed in the back half of next year.\n'Prick the Bubble'\nThe Fed is broadly sticking to its view that transitory factors are largely to blame for elevated inflation. But policy makers at the September meeting saw risks decidedly tilted to the upside. Investors are now pricing in two quarter-point rate increases next year.\nGreg Peters, head of PGIM Fixed Income's multi-sector and strategy, questioned how much the Fed could do to counter a rise in inflation stemming from a pandemic-driven disruption of supply chains.\n\"I'm not convinced that the Fed has any control around these issues,\" he said in an Oct 15 interview on Bloomberg Television. \"Pundits are talking about the Fed needs to prick the bubble, they need to raise rates. To do what, exactly? To fix the supply-chain issues? Do you really want to crush the labor market?\"\nThe European Central Bank seems set on continuing to support the recovery - influenced in part by its own history of over-reacting to signs of inflation: The ECB raised rates in 2008 and 2011 before having to turn tail as the economy slowed. President Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that the current spike in inflation is unlikely to last.\n'Buy Time'\nBusiness leaders, though, are warning of longer-lasting price pressures. On Monday (Oct 18), Royal Philips lowered its growth and earnings guidance after the shortage of semiconductors weighed on sales. Chief executive officer Frans van Houten expects staffing costs to remain high even as materials inflation subsides.\nIf the combination of strong demand and disrupted deliveries continues, it raises the risk that central banks will be forced into \"an abrupt shift in policy sometime later,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.\nOne way for monetary policy makers to thread the needle would be by using hawkish rhetoric - to keep a lid on inflation expectations - while holding back on the actual interest-rate increases that would slow the recovery, according to John Briggs, global head of desk strategy at Natwest Markets. It's a strategy \"to buy time to get to the other side,\" he wrote, \"and hope that the current supply-induced surges in both goods and energy prices eases by the time we see early 2022.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":850757017,"gmtCreate":1634631476023,"gmtModify":1634631476023,"author":{"id":"3579074574585533","authorId":"3579074574585533","name":"MonkeyApe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ccc6d2e6557cc9da952abf531f639ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579074574585533","authorIdStr":"3579074574585533"},"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850757017","repostId":2176178021,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2176178021","pubTimestamp":1634628924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2176178021?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Supply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2176178021","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers ","content":"<div>\n<p>The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Supply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSupply-crunch inflation gives central banks an unfixable problem\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-19 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/supply-crunch-inflation-gives-central-banks-an-unfixable-problem","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2176178021","content_text":"The global economy's supply crunch is propelling inflation at such a fast pace that central bankers may be forced to respond, even though fixing that imbalance is beyond their power.\nTheir dilemma is that it's hard to tell just how much of the inflation is being driven by a resurgence of demand as lockdowns end, and how much by supply strains caused by log-jammed ports and shortages of materials and workers.\nRaising interest rates now would temper the demand that lifted the world out of last year's recession, but do little to ease the supply bottlenecks. If shortages then ease as trade returns to normal, policy could end up too tight and throttle the recovery.\nBut if the central banks hold back and the supply squeeze endures, that could entrench expectations of higher inflation - prompting consumers and companies to push wages and prices up. In that scenario, central banks may later be forced to hit the brakes even harder.\n\"Trying to work out the difference between demand and supply-side drivers right now is incredibly difficult,\" Stephen King, senior economic adviser to HSBC Holdings, told Bloomberg Television. \"Most central banks would probably admit at least in private that inflation is far higher than they had initially expected. You can see why some of them are biting their nails and becoming ever more nervous.\"\n'Have to Act'\nWorldwide, consumer prices have risen more than 4 percent over the past twelve months, with inflation outside of food and energy at its highest in the past decade, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.\nIn the UK, where inflation is on course to run at twice the Bank of England's target this year, governor Andrew Bailey warned on Sunday that the central bank will \"have to act\" - even though he's repeatedly highlighted the limits to what central banks can do.\nTraders are betting the Bank of England will raise its key rate to 0.5 percent by the end of this year. That would place it alongside Norway and New Zealand among the small number of developed-economy central banks to have boosted borrowing costs during the pandemic.\nThe Federal Reserve isn't about to join that club anytime soon, but it is poised to give the go-ahead next month to taper its US$120-billion (S$169 billion)-per month asset purchase programme. While chair Jerome Powell has sought to delink that move from any hike in interest rates, other policy makers have pressed for an early end to the bond purchases so the Fed has leeway to boost rates if needed in the back half of next year.\n'Prick the Bubble'\nThe Fed is broadly sticking to its view that transitory factors are largely to blame for elevated inflation. But policy makers at the September meeting saw risks decidedly tilted to the upside. Investors are now pricing in two quarter-point rate increases next year.\nGreg Peters, head of PGIM Fixed Income's multi-sector and strategy, questioned how much the Fed could do to counter a rise in inflation stemming from a pandemic-driven disruption of supply chains.\n\"I'm not convinced that the Fed has any control around these issues,\" he said in an Oct 15 interview on Bloomberg Television. \"Pundits are talking about the Fed needs to prick the bubble, they need to raise rates. To do what, exactly? To fix the supply-chain issues? Do you really want to crush the labor market?\"\nThe European Central Bank seems set on continuing to support the recovery - influenced in part by its own history of over-reacting to signs of inflation: The ECB raised rates in 2008 and 2011 before having to turn tail as the economy slowed. President Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that the current spike in inflation is unlikely to last.\n'Buy Time'\nBusiness leaders, though, are warning of longer-lasting price pressures. On Monday (Oct 18), Royal Philips lowered its growth and earnings guidance after the shortage of semiconductors weighed on sales. Chief executive officer Frans van Houten expects staffing costs to remain high even as materials inflation subsides.\nIf the combination of strong demand and disrupted deliveries continues, it raises the risk that central banks will be forced into \"an abrupt shift in policy sometime later,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.\nOne way for monetary policy makers to thread the needle would be by using hawkish rhetoric - to keep a lid on inflation expectations - while holding back on the actual interest-rate increases that would slow the recovery, according to John Briggs, global head of desk strategy at Natwest Markets. It's a strategy \"to buy time to get to the other side,\" he wrote, \"and hope that the current supply-induced surges in both goods and energy prices eases by the time we see early 2022.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6251702,"gmtCreate":1634632643438,"gmtModify":1634632643479,"authorId":3581843901915824,"author":{"id":3581843901915824,"idStr":"3581843901915824","authorId":3581843901915824,"name":"RuyiOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0f607e2db1a857ce6e533079ad3d78","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":850757017,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":20,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}