自动驾驶需要一场泡沫_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

自动驾驶需要一场泡沫

格隆汇2021-04-21

一个行业有“钱景”，必然引发一阵“骚乱”。十年前是智能手机，现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用，自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在，除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者，连华为也进来了，并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证，但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。从产业前景看，自动驾驶是星辰大海，但是从资本投入来看，它也可能成为吞噬...

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Sunnylr
·2021-04-22
哈哈,有本事的都去老美那上市,圈了高鼻子们钱后再去挟持他们的芯片,那才叫真功夫, 躲在家里窝里横永远也不会啥出息.可以做到吗？
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bilbili
·2021-04-22
百家争鸣，最后活下来的八成也就一个手掌的个数
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hydenana
·2021-04-22
真的是了解特斯拉吗？还在这里讲激光雷达。。。
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龙腾虎乐
·2021-04-22
自动驾驶的软件和硬件平台的稳定性是一个很大的挑战。敢于把自己的生命捆绑到一台复杂的计算机上需要很大勇气[财迷] 不懂软件的人胆子可能大一点吧[捂脸] 我比较保守，还是你们先来[害羞] [害羞]
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海中霸王
·2021-04-21
华为有什么可牛逼的技术？
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- 遥望星空2050:
  它不需要技术，华为，二个字就牛逼了
  2021-04-22
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菜鸟小股民
·2021-04-21
大多数入场者都是跟风的投机者。割完韭菜就跑路。引领革命？不存在的！忽悠来钱快！
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alexsp
·2021-04-21
吊打10年以后吧！现在差太远了
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巴山新雨
·2021-04-21
讲的很精辟，也很全面。
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memphisK
·2021-04-21
华为从特斯拉那里学来技术，然后赶走特斯拉，就什么都有了
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- 张小明美股:
  赚容易赚的钱没有罪。但是华为天天爱国营销迟早砸到自己的脚。
  2021-04-22
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- 少年_2670回复Leelol:
  指望雷军研究芯片吗？他很厉害，但是他们看不到任正非看到的事吗？我是不信的，他们只是选择了容易赚的钱而已
  2021-04-22
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- Leelol:
  +1
  2021-04-22
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查看更多 1 条评论
股神大盛
·2021-04-21
自动驾驶不靠谱，又在吹泡泡，收割韭菜投入
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猛逃
·2021-04-21
这是要全方位的碰瓷呀[疑问]
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RoadToTesla
·2021-04-21
有思想！
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老王很正直
·2021-04-21
的确
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我和你娘是老乡
·2021-04-21
天下大势，分久必合，合久必分
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昨夜梦见你
·2021-04-21
皇帝的新装/**不是/自欺欺人
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我和你娘是老乡
·2021-04-21
同意
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Tenbagger168
·2021-04-21
冷静💪🏻
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新加坡的大螃蟹
·2021-04-21
好的吧
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Waymo。\n\n但是，和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是，除了特斯拉和Google，还有很多其他的参与者，软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏，百度、苹果也说要造车，软件厂商就更多了，名气大如华为，小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等，图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。\n所以，有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”，而是百家争鸣的局面。\n这种说法也不是没有道理，从理论上讲，智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架，其他的应用有待开发者去完善，之后再形成完善的生态系统。\n开发者不需要是操作系统公司，可以是第三方公司，觉得哪些功能有需求，就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP，这就类似于政府把地块整理好，把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好，然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好，建商场也行，建厂房、建写字楼都行，最终形成完善的城市设施。\n而且，手机的应用场景非常多，金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的，全都给操作系统公司做，等于城市的所有设施都让政府建，这将相当费劲和相当低效，倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者，同时让他们分享成果，一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起，就很容易形成垄断优势，新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。\n这是妥妥的三赢。\n但是，自动驾驶系统不一样，作为用户，你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”，然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧，这得是多差的用户体验？要是忘记安装哪个APP，是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了？更要命的是，忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路，万一该刹车时不刹，那不等于拿人命开玩笑？\n\n换句话说，开发商给到用户的，不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”，也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”，而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。所以，自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的，不能缺胳膊少腿，也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善，除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。\n另外，自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一，只是替代人去开车，不像手机有着太宽泛的应用，所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。\n当然，作为开发商，在开发模式上，可以先做好基础架构，然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦，事实上，百度就是这么做的，Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者，这些做法并不矛盾，因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。\n这么看来，自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大，百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争，最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司，给了他们前赴后继的勇气。\n事情果真如此吗？\n2\n百家争鸣真的可以实现？\n商业社会，质量、成本、效率是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。\n谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本，但实际情况，这是“不可能三角”，顶多只能得到其中两个。把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上，冲突就随之而来。\n不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样，都来做这个事，重复开发不说，对各种资源的消耗，以及有可能出现的恶性竞争，显然和低成本背道而驰；即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本，效率上也会有快慢，资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点，相反就有可能会慢一点；而如果既要高质量，又要高效率，那就得比拼谁的钱多，不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。\n不管从哪个角度看，都是既要又要还要的事，所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。\n只是，从开发商的角度，看法可能完全相反。\n在智能汽车最重要的应用场景，没有厂商希望自己变成局外人，如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜，那都是白花花的银子，这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲，传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力，在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动，新势力也一样，软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。\n而且，现在新兴的产业机会并不多，好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局，当然要去搏杀，一开始就作壁上观，看着大好机会白白溜走，不是件好受的事。\n何况，现在才刚开战，胜负未分，敢于入场厮杀的公司，都不是吃素的，论资金、论人才、论技术储备，虽有差异，但说不上谁一定赢，谁一定输。既然如此，早早就退出，将市场拱手让人，这不是做生意应该有的姿态，即使最后战死，也好过一开始就做逃兵。\n公说公有理，婆说婆有理，最后只有交给市场。\n展望未来，从参与者的角度看，因为云集了太多开发商，自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹；从竞争的角度看，自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀；从路径发展上看，很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫，也应该有一场泡沫。\n从资本的角度看，自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴，然后演变成一场资本泡沫，最后泡沫破灭之后，走出了真正的强者。\n对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者，这场泡沫是“白洞”，因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命；而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方，这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”，吞噬一切。\n3\n作为投资者，应该干嘛？\n言归投资，要避免掉进“黑洞”，就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西，有两个值得重点跟进。\n第一，AI芯片和算法，现在的竞争格局，基本成了巨头们的角力场，而且都是两者通吃，特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法，百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo，华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙，连小鹏也说要自研芯片，和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以，不管软件公司还是整车厂，如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法，却要声称自研自动驾驶系统，这类公司很可能掉队。\n当然，对于整车厂而言，并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统，可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统，自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节，也不失为好的策略。\n自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿，AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺，巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才，论财力，巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入，基本连汤都难喝到。\n所以，押注这个领域，除了巨头，貌似也没其他选择了。\n第二，激光雷达，“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达，自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析，这里不再赘述。\n只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑，自动驾驶是人命关天的大事，对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面，而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势，远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前，激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力，现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”，量产障碍扫除，按照中国人做生意的脾性，后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。\n如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤，也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司，比如专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商，这个领域有意思的地方在于，卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定，比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下，这些地方容易实现人车分离，在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区，人和车在空间上完全隔离，车上就没必要坐人，车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了，损失的是货物，不至于死人，因为人命才值钱。\n\n这些公司的领导人懂得，和巨头拼资金、拼人才，不一定拼得过，所以不如选择差异化路线，深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域，开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲，即使哪天巨头们后知后觉，要大举杀入的时候，自己还可以凭借长期的积累，保留被巨头收编的资格。\n4\n结语\n自动驾驶的出现，实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情，这是足够大的生意，也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。\n但是，这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西，有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西，在这些东西没有明朗化之前，投资的坑是非常多的，借信息不对称，借投资者不明就里的时间窗口，趁机割韭菜的人，多的是。\n对于投资者而言，如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑，发掘到投资机会，可以大胆押注；等到形势明朗化，出现向上拐点，或者出现爆发迹象之时，再押注，也不会晚；在狂热期，泡沫吹大之时，有能力跟随泡沫起舞的，也不失为押注时机，但如果没有能力急流勇退，还是多一份冷静好。\n现在，也正需要这样一份冷静。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":376056003,"gmtCreate":1619073116902,"gmtModify":1634288748559,"author":{"id":"3559518468531412","authorId":"3559518468531412","name":"Sunnylr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a250cc38b97995fbf03f36c63041af7f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"哈哈,有本事的都去老美那上市,圈了高鼻子们钱后再去挟持他们的芯片,那才叫真功夫, 躲在家里窝里横永远也不会啥出息.可以做到吗？","listText":"哈哈,有本事的都去老美那上市,圈了高鼻子们钱后再去挟持他们的芯片,那才叫真功夫, 躲在家里窝里横永远也不会啥出息.可以做到吗？","text":"哈哈,有本事的都去老美那上市,圈了高鼻子们钱后再去挟持他们的芯片,那才叫真功夫, 躲在家里窝里横永远也不会啥出息.可以做到吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376056003","repostId":2129871712,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378288194,"gmtCreate":1619045684818,"gmtModify":1619045684818,"author":{"id":"3547592875462099","authorId":"3547592875462099","name":"bilbili","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b6a37ad9c5c0980ccbdcb48c7bcb90","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c01e958f63198f5d9648b59135f687","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"百家争鸣，最后活下来的八成也就一个手掌的个数","listText":"百家争鸣，最后活下来的八成也就一个手掌的个数","text":"百家争鸣，最后活下来的八成也就一个手掌的个数","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378288194","repostId":2129871712,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378679230,"gmtCreate":1619036672120,"gmtModify":1634289106564,"author":{"id":"3576075383728606","authorId":"3576075383728606","name":"hydenana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aacd9962f23414b39615c2584430944","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"真的是了解特斯拉吗？还在这里讲激光雷达。。。","listText":"真的是了解特斯拉吗？还在这里讲激光雷达。。。","text":"真的是了解特斯拉吗？还在这里讲激光雷达。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378679230","repostId":2129871712,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378661947,"gmtCreate":1619023565689,"gmtModify":1619023565689,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"自动驾驶的软件和硬件平台的稳定性是一个很大的挑战。敢于把自己的生命捆绑到一台复杂的计算机上需要很大勇气[财迷]&nbsp;不懂软件的人胆子可能大一点吧[捂脸]&nbsp;我比较保守，还是你们先来[害羞]&nbsp;[害羞]&nbsp;","listText":"自动驾驶的软件和硬件平台的稳定性是一个很大的挑战。敢于把自己的生命捆绑到一台复杂的计算机上需要很大勇气[财迷]&nbsp;不懂软件的人胆子可能大一点吧[捂脸]&nbsp;我比较保守，还是你们先来[害羞]&nbsp;[害羞]&nbsp;","text":"自动驾驶的软件和硬件平台的稳定性是一个很大的挑战。敢于把自己的生命捆绑到一台复杂的计算机上需要很大勇气[财迷] 不懂软件的人胆子可能大一点吧[捂脸] 我比较保守，还是你们先来[害羞] 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