The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?

MarketWatch2021-04-25

These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) "Death Watch," is under way."A huge collapse is ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

Wow_Wow
·2021-04-28
I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!
回复
点赞
举报
收起
- Wow_Wow:
  Their customer service responded but I still cannot withdraw all my balance cos they reserve some balance that cannot be withdraw.
  2021-04-30
  回复
  举报
- Wow_Wow:
  I tried to close account as per email advice also cannot...cos got balance...😪
  2021-04-30
  回复
  举报
- Wow_Wow:
  Please think twice before opening account with tiger broker.
  2021-04-30
  回复
  举报
AlphaKK
·2021-04-25
There is always many people trying to predict the future. Just get prepared.Comment and like please.
回复
点赞
举报
HH浩
·2021-04-25
Keep saying and one day it will happen...
回复
2
举报
收起
- AlphaKK:
  Good.
  Comment and like please.
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报
JoeK
·2021-04-25
Not a chance. Prepare bullets to buy into dip
回复
1
举报
Stingers
·2021-04-25
Like and comment pls. Thanks
回复
点赞
举报
Wow_Wow
·2021-04-25
😪
回复
点赞
举报
BKZH
·2021-04-25
No no
回复
1
举报
deneee
·2021-04-25
ok
回复
点赞
举报
MichelleTSL
·2021-04-25
Like and comment pls
回复
2
举报
收起
- deneee:
  ok
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报
- 林癸源:
  [微笑] drop me some response, anyone.
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报
- Wow_Wow:
  Hope it does not happen...
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报
Leo_T
·2021-04-25
Really
回复
1
举报
收起
- Dirui:
  Nope
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报
lyoshen
·2021-04-25
like and comment
回复
2
举报
JenneyJJ
·2021-04-25
Just invest with cautions....not all in.
回复
7
举报
收起
- Limth:
  yup sometimes too greedy
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报
PYGoh
·2021-04-25
All the hard earned money
回复
2
举报
danger21
·2021-04-25
Like and comment please
回复
2
举报
Mrpowe
·2021-04-25
ok
回复
1
举报
收起
- Mrpowe:
  Hi
  2021-04-29
  回复
  举报
NadiaBB
·2021-04-25
Really??
回复
2
举报
收起
- Big__Boss:
  nice
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报
ZhiLing
·2021-04-25
good for us
回复
3
举报
Ailuros
·2021-04-25
Like and comment
回复
5
举报
收起
- AS78:
  Please help to like and comment, thanks ‌[开心] ‌‌[龇牙] ‌‌[鬼脸] ‌
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报
- PYGoh:
  Done
  2021-04-25
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

关于我们·老虎社区守则·老虎社区账号管理规范·老虎社区服务协议·老虎社区隐私政策

公司名称：北京至简风宜信息技术有限公司

违法和不良信息投诉：010-5681-3562（工作时间9:30-18:30）

邮箱：service@laohu8.com

营业执照：91110105MA01A4U55R

ICP备：京ICP备18016422号

网安备：京公网安备11010502036490

关注我们

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2129631283","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","media":"MarketWatch","content":"<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"UPRO","symbol_name":"三倍做多标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","article_id":"2129631283","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"市场将在“6月底”崩溃？真的吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9},"content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":100653054,"gmtCreate":1619611675778,"gmtModify":1634211361154,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorIdStr":"3581725184130382"},"htmlText":"I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","listText":"I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","text":"I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100653054","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4182485,"gmtCreate":1619785605021,"gmtModify":1635507126771,"authorId":3581725184130382,"author":{"id":3581725184130382,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorId":3581725184130382,"name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":100653054,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Their customer service responded but I still cannot withdraw all my balance cos they reserve some balance that cannot be withdraw.","text":"Their customer service responded but I still cannot withdraw all my balance cos they reserve some balance that cannot be withdraw.","html":"Their customer service responded but I still cannot withdraw all my balance cos they reserve some balance that cannot be withdraw."},{"id":4182500,"gmtCreate":1619785654783,"gmtModify":1635507125652,"authorId":3581725184130382,"author":{"id":3581725184130382,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorId":3581725184130382,"name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":100653054,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I tried to close account as per email advice also cannot...cos got balance...😪","text":"I tried to close account as per email advice also cannot...cos got balance...😪","html":"I tried to close account as per email advice also cannot...cos got balance...😪"},{"id":4182505,"gmtCreate":1619785685546,"gmtModify":1635507125155,"authorId":3581725184130382,"author":{"id":3581725184130382,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorId":3581725184130382,"name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":100653054,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Please think twice before opening account with tiger broker.","text":"Please think twice before opening account with tiger broker.","html":"Please think twice before opening account with tiger broker."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375179954,"gmtCreate":1619319135678,"gmtModify":1631884223275,"author":{"id":"3572817570586604","authorId":"3572817570586604","name":"AlphaKK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31614816d2f82318ead2a8b020b02b0f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572817570586604","authorIdStr":"3572817570586604"},"htmlText":"There is always many people trying to predict the future. Just get prepared.Comment and like please.","listText":"There is always many people trying to predict the future. Just get prepared.Comment and like please.","text":"There is always many people trying to predict the future. Just get prepared.Comment and like please.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375179954","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375179009,"gmtCreate":1619319124301,"gmtModify":1631883991905,"author":{"id":"3582015516749888","authorId":"3582015516749888","name":"HH浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2639351c97027c6f71c4d9729ef216d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582015516749888","authorIdStr":"3582015516749888"},"htmlText":"Keep saying and one day it will happen...&nbsp;","listText":"Keep saying and one day it will happen...&nbsp;","text":"Keep saying and one day it will happen...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375179009","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4126383,"gmtCreate":1619319169741,"gmtModify":1635511976045,"authorId":3572817570586604,"author":{"id":3572817570586604,"idStr":"3572817570586604","authorId":3572817570586604,"name":"AlphaKK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31614816d2f82318ead2a8b020b02b0f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375179009,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good. <br>\nComment and like please.","text":"Good. <br>\nComment and like please.","html":"Good. <br>\nComment and like please."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375142500,"gmtCreate":1619318686500,"gmtModify":1634274279828,"author":{"id":"3575261937306050","authorId":"3575261937306050","name":"JoeK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162445e8b6a553bd412b8a06e3f44c9e","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575261937306050","authorIdStr":"3575261937306050"},"htmlText":"Not a chance.&nbsp; Prepare bullets to buy into dip&nbsp;","listText":"Not a chance.&nbsp; Prepare bullets to buy into dip&nbsp;","text":"Not a chance. Prepare bullets to buy into dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375142500","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375146622,"gmtCreate":1619318553266,"gmtModify":1634274280874,"author":{"id":"3562475148249558","authorId":"3562475148249558","name":"Stingers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99c07f753850d085aa23040bff2acf8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562475148249558","authorIdStr":"3562475148249558"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls. Thanks","listText":"Like and comment pls. Thanks","text":"Like and comment pls. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375146622","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375141963,"gmtCreate":1619318381652,"gmtModify":1634274282286,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorIdStr":"3581725184130382"},"htmlText":"😪","listText":"😪","text":"😪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375141963","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375149429,"gmtCreate":1619318329361,"gmtModify":1634274283135,"author":{"id":"3572945992604664","authorId":"3572945992604664","name":"BKZH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e399456296d456e84f8cea78347bf08","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572945992604664","authorIdStr":"3572945992604664"},"htmlText":"No no","listText":"No no","text":"No no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375149429","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375157267,"gmtCreate":1619318204859,"gmtModify":1634274284180,"author":{"id":"3577450174855100","authorId":"3577450174855100","name":"deneee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f703e6fb26f06667065153b01ab5cdfe","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577450174855100","authorIdStr":"3577450174855100"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375157267","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375154479,"gmtCreate":1619318121791,"gmtModify":1634274284886,"author":{"id":"3579336469415958","authorId":"3579336469415958","name":"MichelleTSL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7537e3235320b6f7a9fcc83362e0d004","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579336469415958","authorIdStr":"3579336469415958"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375154479","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4126225,"gmtCreate":1619318173574,"gmtModify":1635511987847,"authorId":3577450174855100,"author":{"id":3577450174855100,"idStr":"3577450174855100","authorId":3577450174855100,"name":"deneee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f703e6fb26f06667065153b01ab5cdfe","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375154479,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":4126241,"gmtCreate":1619318302149,"gmtModify":1635511986262,"authorId":3581608528633395,"author":{"id":3581608528633395,"idStr":"3581608528633395","authorId":3581608528633395,"name":"林癸源","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375154479,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑] drop me some response, anyone.","text":"[微笑] drop me some response, anyone.","html":"[微笑] drop me some response, anyone."},{"id":4126295,"gmtCreate":1619318519479,"gmtModify":1635511980793,"authorId":3581725184130382,"author":{"id":3581725184130382,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorId":3581725184130382,"name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375154479,"type":1,"supId":4126225,"prevId":0,"content":"Hope it does not happen...","text":"Hope it does not happen...","html":"Hope it does not happen..."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375152877,"gmtCreate":1619317943499,"gmtModify":1634274287243,"author":{"id":"3577164655493669","authorId":"3577164655493669","name":"Leo_T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4639e7c3fcdc38b65d6833798171bf2d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577164655493669","authorIdStr":"3577164655493669"},"htmlText":"Really","listText":"Really","text":"Really","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375152877","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4127333,"gmtCreate":1619326347761,"gmtModify":1635511882388,"authorId":3576728357666184,"author":{"id":3576728357666184,"idStr":"3576728357666184","authorId":3576728357666184,"name":"Dirui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028fdb43f6018331c0e01e03918d42c9","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375152877,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nope","text":"Nope","html":"Nope"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375151910,"gmtCreate":1619317757130,"gmtModify":1634274290101,"author":{"id":"3581805290358618","authorId":"3581805290358618","name":"lyoshen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5fa40ff8caa5b33f004516d4326fe2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581805290358618","authorIdStr":"3581805290358618"},"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375151910","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375153590,"gmtCreate":1619317717810,"gmtModify":1631884223274,"author":{"id":"3573203718015318","authorId":"3573203718015318","name":"JenneyJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8886c72f606e31ed1eacbf1e0fb36fef","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573203718015318","authorIdStr":"3573203718015318"},"htmlText":"Just invest with cautions....not all in.","listText":"Just invest with cautions....not all in.","text":"Just invest with cautions....not all in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375153590","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4127740,"gmtCreate":1619328542457,"gmtModify":1635511837940,"authorId":3565147372726492,"author":{"id":3565147372726492,"idStr":"3565147372726492","authorId":3565147372726492,"name":"Limth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e8250fe16c4e0e90561c3755568eae","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375153590,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yup sometimes too greedy","text":"yup sometimes too greedy","html":"yup sometimes too greedy"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375124516,"gmtCreate":1619317434235,"gmtModify":1634274294283,"author":{"id":"3575275014729377","authorId":"3575275014729377","name":"PYGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3708471dd4107e4cdad0807f0af3ac99","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575275014729377","authorIdStr":"3575275014729377"},"htmlText":"All the hard earned money","listText":"All the hard earned money","text":"All the hard earned money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375124516","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375124325,"gmtCreate":1619317420167,"gmtModify":1634274294525,"author":{"id":"3581503226009791","authorId":"3581503226009791","name":"danger21","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c371e6f289c649c97c76129da9539e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581503226009791","authorIdStr":"3581503226009791"},"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375124325","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375122363,"gmtCreate":1619317255652,"gmtModify":1634274295593,"author":{"id":"3582272850132613","authorId":"3582272850132613","name":"Mrpowe","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582272850132613","authorIdStr":"3582272850132613"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375122363","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4166760,"gmtCreate":1619659117294,"gmtModify":1635508465715,"authorId":3582272850132613,"author":{"id":3582272850132613,"idStr":"3582272850132613","authorId":3582272850132613,"name":"Mrpowe","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375122363,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375121400,"gmtCreate":1619317146200,"gmtModify":1631889695790,"author":{"id":"3577396027099621","authorId":"3577396027099621","name":"NadiaBB","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577396027099621","authorIdStr":"3577396027099621"},"htmlText":"Really??","listText":"Really??","text":"Really??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375121400","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4126066,"gmtCreate":1619317304652,"gmtModify":1635512003195,"authorId":3570517865216539,"author":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375121400,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375129184,"gmtCreate":1619316944648,"gmtModify":1634274299130,"author":{"id":"3557823792637532","authorId":"3557823792637532","name":"ZhiLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40d052b9f7db59b50f72a3cbcbc99234","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557823792637532","authorIdStr":"3557823792637532"},"htmlText":"good for us","listText":"good for us","text":"good for us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375129184","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375120434,"gmtCreate":1619316897428,"gmtModify":1634274299489,"author":{"id":"3574935505074782","authorId":"3574935505074782","name":"Ailuros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7896e74e0a34781e49dc0c310e473e2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574935505074782","authorIdStr":"3574935505074782"},"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375120434","repostId":2129631283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4126031,"gmtCreate":1619317114909,"gmtModify":1635512006401,"authorId":3554958921608603,"author":{"id":3554958921608603,"idStr":"3554958921608603","authorId":3554958921608603,"name":"AS78","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375120434,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Please help to like and comment, thanks ‌[开心] ‌‌[龇牙] ‌‌[鬼脸]<u> ‌</u>","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks ‌[开心] ‌‌[龇牙] ‌‌[鬼脸]<u> ‌</u>","html":"Please help to like and comment, thanks ‌[开心] ‌‌[龇牙] ‌‌[鬼脸]<u> ‌</u>"},{"id":4126097,"gmtCreate":1619317455235,"gmtModify":1635512000493,"authorId":3575275014729377,"author":{"id":3575275014729377,"idStr":"3575275014729377","authorId":3575275014729377,"name":"PYGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3708471dd4107e4cdad0807f0af3ac99","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375120434,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":34,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}