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造车新势力3月成绩单公布，暗藏这些隐忧

腾讯新闻2021-04-04

4月伊始，小鹏、理想以及蔚来三家造车新势力陆续公布了2021年3月以及一季度新车整体交付数据。从整体来看，三家车企的同比增速均超过了220%，其中小鹏、蔚来两家的增速甚至超过了370%。回顾2020年全年，即便受到了疫情的影响，蔚来、理想和小鹏还分别交付了43728、32624和27041辆车，同时三家车企的毛利率全部转正，这对于新能源车企来说，都是非常正向的。今年一季度，蔚来还首次达成单季...

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YSLiu
·2021-04-05
Believe in Elon
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- wenjin:
  Good!
  2021-04-05
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YSLiu
·2021-04-05
Below in Elon
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健安_1832
·2021-04-05
🤙🤙
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开始动
·2021-04-05
加油
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求金
·2021-04-05
[暗中观察]
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hhyw
·2021-04-05
太多公司造车了🤨🤨🤨
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- 一茗王:
  真的供不应求吗？
  2021-04-05
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高明兴_8399
·2021-04-05
加油
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KT1535
·2021-04-05
电动车势力分成两类，特斯拉和其他
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3
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老子退休金
·2021-04-05
特斯拉呢
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ruiping88
·2021-04-04
[难过] [难过]
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- Json22:
  [无语]
  2021-04-04
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瀚妈
·2021-04-04
Okay
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- Qwer1234:
  Cool
  2021-04-04
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Kiong715
·2021-04-04
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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- 瀚妈:
  Ok
  2021-04-04
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Miaw
·2021-04-04
Positive competition [强]
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- AliciaLing:
  👍🏼
  2021-04-04
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- jianguang:
  任务
  2021-04-05
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都爸
·2021-04-04
[微笑]
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JINGYI0001
·2021-04-04
.
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- JINGYI0001:
  .
  2021-04-04
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- chanel28:
  👍
  2021-04-04
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- JINGYI0001:
  👍🏻
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href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-04-04/doc-ikmyaawa6074206.shtml><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月伊始，小鹏、理想以及蔚来三家造车新势力陆续公布了2021年3月以及一季度新车整体交付数据。从整体来看，三家车企的同比增速均超过了220%，其中小鹏、蔚来两家的增速甚至超过了370%。\n\n回顾2020年全年，即便受到了疫情的影响，蔚来、理想和小鹏还分别交付了43728、32624和27041辆车，同时三家车企的毛利率全部转正，这对于新能源车企来说，都是非常正向的。今年一季度，蔚来还首次达成单季...</p>\n\n<a 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transcripts of the new car-making forces were announced in March, hiding these hidden concerns","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb63ceeeb31c458949d17608efbd6bf0","symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9},"content_text":"4月伊始，小鹏、理想以及蔚来三家造车新势力陆续公布了2021年3月以及一季度新车整体交付数据。从整体来看，三家车企的同比增速均超过了220%，其中小鹏、蔚来两家的增速甚至超过了370%。\n\n回顾2020年全年，即便受到了疫情的影响，蔚来、理想和小鹏还分别交付了43728、32624和27041辆车，同时三家车企的毛利率全部转正，这对于新能源车企来说，都是非常正向的。今年一季度，蔚来还首次达成单季交付超2万辆的里程碑，也是三家造车新势力中唯一达成这一目标的。\n此外，从月交付环比走势来看，三家车企三月一扫上月\"春节寒冬\"的阴霾，走出“深V”反弹。此前环比数据连跌两个月的理想终于回到了近5000辆的月交付水平，而作为“带头大哥”的蔚来，在三月再次刷新了自己的月交付纪录。\n定价越高，卖的越好的蔚来\n2020年3月，小鹏、理想、蔚来三家分别给出了1055、1447和1533辆的交付数据。但谁曾想到，这也是一年之内，三家车企交付量最为接近的一次。在之后的一年，蔚来就开始了它的交付量激增模式。\n在过去的一年时间里，蔚来几乎在每个月的交付量上都领先其他两个竞争对手近1000辆车。\n到了今年2月整车销售低谷的时候，蔚来更是以“最小跌幅”的姿态，单月交付量超过了小鹏和理想的交付总和。\n\n如果我们将小鹏、理想和蔚来看做是“一家车企”的话，你会发现这个“车企”跟其他所有的车企都不一样，它卖的最贵的车型，反而是销量最好的。\n以今年三月交付量为例：小鹏交付了5102辆车，按照车型标准售价计算，小鹏出货的均价只有19.46万元，理想只有单车型，均价32.8万元，而蔚来是三家车企中单车均价最高的，达到了38.47万元。\n是什么导致了“蔚来车价高销量高”的现象？这和蔚来精准的市场定位不无关系。\n蔚来到目前为止量产三款车型，定价最低的EC6，起售价也要36.8万元，最高的ES8签名版，定价高达55.8万元。仔细分析这个定价区间，你会发现蔚来实际上站在了一个竞争对手相对空白的区间内。\n小鹏主攻25万以下的电动车市场，理想因为车型的限制，也仅能在部分城市抢占EC6的市场。而其最大的竞争对手特斯拉，下有25-35万的Model3和Y，上有70-100万的S和X，独缺40-70万这个区间档位。\n同时小鹏理想和蔚来三家新型电动车企崛起于互联网，他们的潜在对应消费群体主要以互联网认知程度更高的一二线城市用户为主，这些用户选择理想、蔚来们的电动车，或许价格并不是他们考虑的主要因素。\n理想在稳步增长中开始掉队\n今年2月的销售低谷中，理想和小鹏走出了一条“深V”行情线，引发不少人对于这两家车企市场销售的担忧。但在3月，三家车企都用一个大大的拉升回击质疑。但在亮眼交付量数据的背后，我们还是看到了理想在整体的竞争中“掉队”的趋势。\n\n如果我们从去年1月计算交付量增长数据的话，三家车企截至今年3月的增长率分别为：小鹏384%、理想315%、蔚来354%。\n从增长率来看，理想掉队了。\n实际的情况也反映在交付曲线上，截至去年7月之前，理想都是强压小鹏一头的，但在7月过后，小鹏逐渐追平并赶超了理想。\n在三家车企公布的2021年一季度交付数据中，小鹏以13340辆的数据，超越了理想的12579辆，尽管差距不大，但对于理想来说，它确实已经三家车企中出货量最少的一家了。\n\n单一车型、混动在部分城市无法算作新能源等问题，在越发成熟的电动车销售市场被逐渐放大。同时市场的定位和单车型的定价，也让它直接面临这和特斯拉Model Y的直接竞争。\n显然理想也意识到了这样的问题，在今年2月下旬2020年第四季度业绩电话会上，CEO李想明确表态：从2022年开始，理想汽车每年至少会发布2款新的产品交付市场，并且在2023年会交付纯电系列产品，价格区间也会由现在的30-35万向15-50万进行扩大覆盖。\n“缺芯”问题或影响三家车企下季度交付情况\n不管是卖得比较好的蔚来，还是稍逊色的小鹏、理想，摆在它们交付量面前的还有另一座“大山”——芯片短缺。\n就在蔚来公布3月交付数据的前一周，蔚来方面突发公告称，因“缺芯”暂时停产5个工作日，同时还下调了一季度交付预期，由之前的2~2.5万辆调整至1.95万辆。\n虽然最后公布的交付数据超过了1.95万辆，但也只是刚刚过线。由此可见，“缺芯”问题依然有待更好地解决。目前，小鹏和理想还没听说因“缺芯”停工减产的消息，但车企毕竟是此次“缺芯”的重灾区，不能掉以轻心。\n特斯拉仍是三家车企不可忽视的强劲对手\n此外，三家造车新势力还需要面对另一个强劲的对手——特斯拉。根据特斯拉日前公布的2021年一季度交付量数据显示，特斯拉在全球共交付184800辆，继续刷新季度交付纪录。\n而这一交付数字，基本上可以比肩比亚迪2020年所有新能源车（包括纯电和混动）的销量总和18.97万辆了。特斯拉一个季度的交付量快赶得上比亚迪忙活一年的......不比不知道一比吓一跳。\n\n即便特斯拉官方没有单独公布其在中国市场的具体交付数字，但我们可以拿今年2月中国乘联会公布的特斯拉国内销量数据稍作参考。\n特斯拉2月份在中国的销量为18318辆，与去年同期相比达到470%，较今年1月增长15.47%。仅凭一己之力，特斯拉就拿下了国内电动车市场超过2成的市场份额，而且这还是受到2月份春节假期影响的情况之下。\n\n与整个国内车市大盘相比，2021年2月乘用车市场零售量环比下降45.5%，新能源汽车零售量整体环比下降37.9%。特斯拉却成为国内少数环比销量不降反增的少数车企之一。\n2020年特斯拉的全球交付总量约为50万辆（只差450辆），如果按照今年一季度交付水平（约18.5万辆）来计算，特斯拉今年要达成50万辆的交付目标用不了三个季度。\n而马斯克的野心不止于此。前几天就有国外媒体爆料称，马斯克在公司内部电话会议上把今年的目标放在了100万，直接翻一番。\n敢说这样的“大话”，马斯克是非常有底气的，其背后的上海超级工厂就扮演了重要角色。据最新的研究报告显示，2021年特斯拉上海工厂的产能有望突破50万辆，这对特斯拉百万辆新车生产目标的实现至关重要。\n此外，特斯拉还在继续扩大产能，两座新的超级工厂也在加紧建设，美国本土的德州工厂或于今年5月建成投产，德国柏林工厂最早于今年7月开始投产，预计年底前开始交付。\n如此强势的特斯拉成为新造车企的“劲敌”。在特斯拉猛攻下，也倒逼中国造车新势力们要不断修炼内功。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":349808564,"gmtCreate":1617584888458,"gmtModify":1634520454434,"author":{"id":"3561795991086251","authorId":"3561795991086251","name":"YSLiu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21065765af1058975e81cd4662b5e69a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561795991086251","authorIdStr":"3561795991086251"},"htmlText":"Believe 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