“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌

华尔街见闻2021-03-10

今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。美元短暂反弹后将下跌。纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶...

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一颗成长中的韭菜
·2021-03-11
有本事就做空，把空单放出来，瞎BB有什么用
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十八顺
·2021-03-11
乱说一通
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3
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- 晚安美梦:
  哈哈
  2021-03-11
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hihiday
·2021-03-11
翻来覆去割韭菜吗
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1
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獅城扛把子
·2021-03-11
可以不要吗
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1
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- 米米西谷:
  可以
  2021-03-11
  回复
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- 獅城扛把子:
  竟然开始跌了
  2021-03-25
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HiMoney
·2021-03-11
[汗颜]
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hhyw
·2021-03-11
今天不跌明天跌，明天不跌后天跌，总之跌了我就是大师了😁😁
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dkpoh
·2021-03-11
真的假的？😱
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howieyang123
·2021-03-11
语不惊人死不休
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1
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- Derick的日间:
  不怕
  2021-03-11
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铅笔芯Nanjing
·2021-03-11
每个人说话都是站在自己的利益出发的，如此危言耸听不过是想达成自己的目的而已
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一个胖子
·2021-03-11
这就是个🐶逼骗子，18年我信了这货的话做空了一年美股，幸亏19年抄底了蔚来，要不现在也翻不了身
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11
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- 温斌ALEX:
  别人BB又不费钱。华尔街一堆分析师分析特斯拉，脸都要被打肿。
  2021-03-11
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- sleepmoney:
  2020也是他
  2021-03-11
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AnnieQ1988
·2021-03-11
还没有抵够吗
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2
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哥们
·2021-03-10
喝太多了
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空头军事
·2021-03-10
这个家伙18年就出来说过，结果呢，反正说话又不用钱
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4
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仁者无敌的猪猪
·2021-03-10
哪里都有华尔街见闻这个**媒体
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3
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乐在极致
·2021-03-10
这种言论最好别发
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猪龙七
·2021-03-10
也许，可能，或许，一推模棱两口的话，蒙上就是神预言，不对也可以不要脸的说猜测[摊手]
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1
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tom33
·2021-03-10
又打脸，又暴涨了
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1
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xyzrb
·2021-03-10
空投就是砸场子赚钱的，跌了也不要卖，不要做韭菜
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1
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Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。美元短暂反弹后将下跌。纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶。下次金融市场危机到来VIX会超过100。黄金经过昨日跌至每盎司1680美元应该已经见底。目前最便宜的资产是农场。具体来看：人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的Gundlach指出，在美国居民个人收入构成中，来自政府的补贴收入占比已经达到27%，而刺激计划还需要继续进行。这也使得美国的预算赤字已经达到创纪录的GDP的16.2%。对于给年收入15万美元的人一堆钱的美国刺激计划，Gundlach将其批评扩大到更广泛的债务货币化。同时警告说人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。最大的问题是我们已经完全沉迷于这些刺激计划。尽管人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的，但我担心我们会看到对无休止刺激的一些实际需求。美元反弹后将下跌接下来，在谈到美元时，Gundlach表示，尽管他最近几个月一直看涨美元，但他预计美元在短暂反弹后将下跌。VIX指数在下一次经济低迷期间将超过100对于股市，Gundlach提到了“超级六大”科技股，并表示这些股票的估值与疫情前的水平相比，高得惊人。他展示了飙升的市盈率，称这些科技股的远期市盈率升至19倍，但没有1999年那么高。Gundlach表示，在美国总统乔•拜登谈论提高企业税率的问题上，一旦该法案纳入估值，市盈率可能会更高。Gundlach警告说，纳斯达克指数可能会出现2000- 2003年那样的下跌，可能已经见顶。另外，Gundlach还做出了一个令人震惊的预测:“VIX指数在下一次衰退中将超过100。”通货膨胀造成“崩盘”的原因是什么？Gundlach指出，也许是通货膨胀。在基数效应和刺激措施的支撑下，他预计今年夏天的几个月整体通货膨胀率将超过3%。Gundlach认为情况可能会变得更糟: 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