美债收益率曲线陡峭化，对投资者意味者什么？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美债收益率曲线陡峭化，对投资者意味者什么？

华尔街见闻2021-02-06

目前，10年期美债收益率非常迅速回升，这对市场意味着什么呢？美国财经媒体巴伦周刊认为，长期国债收益率的增长速度比短期国债收益率的增长快得多，这表明投资者押注美国经济复苏将进一步加速。收益率曲线的陡峭度（或平坦度）常常被视为经济增长的指标。当曲线“反转”或长期收益率低于短期收益率时，经济学家通常认为，这可能是经济衰退警告。现在曲线越来越陡峭，这表明投资者预期，未来几十年美国经济增长和...

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十帕先生
·2021-02-07
暂时买债券几乎无利可图。
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曹环球
·2021-02-07
收益率上升，债券价格下降，买买买
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云里梦里飞
·2021-02-07
买债券比存定期划算吧
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c63
·2021-02-07
可以
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Johnrambo
·2021-02-06
是好是坏呢
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开始你的表演
·2021-02-06
好
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investors?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9},"content_text":"目前，10年期美债收益率非常迅速回升，这对市场意味着什么呢？\n美国财经媒体巴伦周刊认为，长期国债收益率的增长速度比短期国债收益率的增长快得多，这表明投资者押注美国经济复苏将进一步加速。\n\n\n收益率曲线的陡峭度（或平坦度）常常被视为经济增长的指标。\n当曲线“反转”或长期收益率低于短期收益率时，经济学家通常认为，这可能是经济衰退警告。\n现在曲线越来越陡峭，这表明投资者预期，未来几十年美国经济增长和通货膨胀会增强。\n长短期美债利差走阔\n自8月以来，30年期美国国债收益率攀升了73个基点，达到1.92％。 20年期国债收益率攀升了77个基点，至0.96％；10年期国债收益率攀升了63个基点，至1.15％。与短期国债的收益相比，这些美国长期国债的收益率上涨更加明显。\n另外，最受市场关注的美债指标之一就是2年期和10年期国债收益率之间的差距，目前，这一指标达到了2017年以来的最大值。\n此外，5年期美债和30年期美债的收益率差值也达到了2015年以来的最高水平。\n华尔街的策略师们预计这一趋势将继续下去，原因很简单：美国的经济增长预期。\n巴伦周刊认为，尽管所有美国国债收益率都反映了未来的利率预期和通胀风险，但股市的长期表现对利率和债券收益率上升更为敏感，其价值更容易受到通胀的侵蚀。\n因此，随着美国经济的重新开放，疫苗的广泛接种以及政府刺激措施的讨论，投资者正在对经济增长和通货膨胀寄予更高的期望。\n美联储会很快撤回宽松政策吗？\n尽管如此，市场普遍预计美联储不会很快开始收紧政策。\n德意志银行认为，美联储直到2022年中，才可能开始缩减量化宽松，而加息要至少得等到2023年。\n由于美联储处理通货膨胀的方式发生了变化，即便在经济增长和通胀复苏之后，美联储也可能在未来数年采取谨慎而缓慢的退出宽松政策，这可能是5年期国债收益率仍然较低的原因。\n美债收益率走高对市场有什么影响？\n长期利率走高、短期和长期收益率之间的差距不断扩大，对市场和投资者产生了一些影响。\n首先，收益率的稳定上升可能有助于防止像2013年那样长期国债遭受抛售的情况。\n德意志银行的策略师预测，美联储将在今年开始讨论降低购债速度，但要到2022年年中才开始缩减。在本周早些时候的一份报告中，他们指出，投资者对美国国债的看好已经比2013年时要乐观得多，这使得破坏稳定的急剧逆转的可能性较小。\n第二，银行股可能继续表现强劲。\n当收益率曲线变陡时，银行的净利息收益率将得到提高，因为银行通常会短期借款并长期贷款。标普500银行ETF今年以来已经上涨了近11％。\n但是，对美股整体而言，高收益率则可能对股票估值产生影响。不过，从另一个层面来看，推动收益率上行的经济复苏也将推动企业盈利增长。\n第三，国债收益率最终将攀升至足以吸引投资者重返市场的水平。\n华尔街的共识是，到年中，十年期国债收益率将攀升至约1.5％。尽管这远低于投资者过去几十年中见到的国债收益率平均水平，但仍比去年八月的低点0.5％有了明显改善。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":389334814,"gmtCreate":1612683558538,"gmtModify":1703764284873,"author":{"id":"3562370007741008","authorId":"3562370007741008","name":"十帕先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e5623c01916878f1c6d65ffa7006588","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562370007741008","authorIdStr":"3562370007741008"},"htmlText":"暂时买债券几乎无利可图。","listText":"暂时买债券几乎无利可图。","text":"暂时买债券几乎无利可图。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389334814","repostId":2109776100,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":389946368,"gmtCreate":1612672675354,"gmtModify":1703764224087,"author":{"id":"3572831909828511","authorId":"3572831909828511","name":"曹环球","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce307788b7898a4fbe10c5f18c696846","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572831909828511","authorIdStr":"3572831909828511"},"htmlText":"收益率上升，债券价格下降，买买买","listText":"收益率上升，债券价格下降，买买买","text":"收益率上升，债券价格下降，买买买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389946368","repostId":2109776100,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":389994296,"gmtCreate":1612660043615,"gmtModify":1703764136428,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568431359478653","authorIdStr":"3568431359478653"},"htmlText":"买债券比存定期划算吧","listText":"买债券比存定期划算吧","text":"买债券比存定期划算吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389994296","repostId":2109776100,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":389077394,"gmtCreate":1612655138318,"gmtModify":1703764109180,"author":{"id":"3467405583834690","authorId":"3467405583834690","name":"c63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9ba7100a9987de389fd5e262128bea0","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3467405583834690","authorIdStr":"3467405583834690"},"htmlText":"可以","listText":"可以","text":"可以","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389077394","repostId":2109776100,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":389069947,"gmtCreate":1612623734189,"gmtModify":1703764042843,"author":{"id":"3567739381250453","authorId":"3567739381250453","name":"Johnrambo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590c80752521b1a0ec6c1a94d760c7c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567739381250453","authorIdStr":"3567739381250453"},"htmlText":"是好是坏呢","listText":"是好是坏呢","text":"是好是坏呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389069947","repostId":2109776100,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":380721834,"gmtCreate":1612595578928,"gmtModify":1703763921754,"author":{"id":"3558180888833278","authorId":"3558180888833278","name":"开始你的表演","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460cbdf90e5a9a66113bcd576b4ddd73","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558180888833278","authorIdStr":"3558180888833278"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"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