美股暴跌，只剩6个月？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美股暴跌，只剩6个月？

财主家的余粮2020-12-29

在2017年9月份的时候，顶级投行高盛出了一份报告，报告的题目，叫做：熊市的必要条件（Bear Necessities）。具体的内容呢，就是分析了美股过去200年来的30次股票市场大跌的情况，找出他们之间最大的共同点。报告分析了40个宏观指标、市场指标和技术指标，结果发现，并没有任何一个指标能包打天下，每一次都准确指示股市即将大跌，但的确有一些指标还是非常有指示性——例如，从宏观经济来看，熊市基本...

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101

Nisnivlek
·2020-12-30
Noted. Thanks
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-30
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hengzhao
·2020-12-30
你的意思高盛应该预测到新冠？
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-30
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桑秀娟
·2020-12-30
说的有道理
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仁者无敌的猪猪
·2020-12-30
高盛**$乐视网(300104)$
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-30
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
·2020-12-29
这是打算做空忽悠韭菜？？
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-30
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2024lllygz
·2020-12-29
“高盛回顾过去”我tm回顾高盛说的基本上就没有几次对的，不晓得是真蠢还是故意害人
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- 2024lllygz:
  它就是吓唬散户抛它在下面收几个大行就它每次说反话
  2020-12-29
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- __AGate:
  继续涨半年，反着来
  2020-12-29
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- skyteeth:
  怎么可能是蠢呢
  2020-12-29
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渔火
·2020-12-29
这也能算
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Juliusdk
·2020-12-29
前面分析得不错，至于结论说了等于没说。
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阿呆宝
·2020-12-29
高盛的报告，还将美股暴跌分为突发事件类熊市（半年即可恢复）、经济衰退类熊市（2年左右才能恢复）、结构错位类熊市（超预期的经济深度衰退，恢复时间可长达10年），而高盛所发明的这个美股风险指标，除个别突发事件类熊市之外，对于所有类型的美股暴跌，都具有良好的指示作用。
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多财
·2020-12-29
哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈
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煮蟹公
·2020-12-29
这种唱衰美股的文章从几年前开始年年年末都要来一次，像极了大姨妈，可是暴跌却从来没看见。
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- 唯物主义:
  当你今年没来过美股
  2020-12-29
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乐口福
·2020-12-29
股灾估计在拜登上台的一年内发生…
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无尽空虚
·2020-12-29
厉害了，我自己做股票6年也有自己的预判，但是你的这个推算和我的预判差不多，不过2021年11月左右，美股崩盘，下跌2年半左右
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- 唯物主义:
  多谢我记住你说的过两天回来找你
  2020-12-29
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- 无尽空虚:
  2月底，3月初有一波回调，不过距离崩盘还1年，老美不把很贪，这波才用熔断洗完，不吃回本不会崩的
  2020-12-29
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- 唯物主义:
  比如今天就可能是
  2020-12-29
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查看更多 2 条评论
Clumsypig
·2020-12-29
跌呗，正好加仓，又不是世界末日
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谁家小白菜
·2020-12-29
高盛说的话什么时候算数过
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启程巴芒阁
·2020-12-29
关注一下美国股市的风险
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牛大叔_Eugene
·2020-12-29
这份报告不知道是哪位算命先生写的[疑问]
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- 牛大叔_Eugene:
  神预测[龇牙]
  2020-12-29
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- 哦买噶啦:
  中信证券，[开心]
  2020-12-29
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敏敏猪__
·2020-12-29
[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] 继续暴涨半年，足矣
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skyteeth
·2020-12-29
最垃圾的高盛
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Freshpie
·2020-12-29
……我还以为是高盛预测的。这是公众号自己预测？
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Left?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10093308d4b45153206045042b4aa6de","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"在2017年9月份的时候，顶级投行高盛出了一份报告，报告的题目，叫做：熊市的必要条件（Bear Necessities）。具体的内容呢，就是分析了美股过去200年来的30次股票市场大跌的情况，找出他们之间最大的共同点。报告分析了40个宏观指标、市场指标和技术指标，结果发现，并没有任何一个指标能包打天下，每一次都准确指示股市即将大跌，但的确有一些指标还是非常有指示性——例如，从宏观经济来看，熊市基本都发生在经济增长变缓、股市高估值且央行即将升息的环境中。为此，该报告提出了5个股市即将大跌的必要指标异常：1）估值水平（一般用Shiller PE表示）如果股市本身在低位，跌也跌不了多少，所以股市估值高位是大跌的一个必要条件，但，反过来并不成立——股市估值高，并不一定马上引发大跌，高估值可以持续很久。2）失业率如果经济遭遇衰退，企业利润受到打击，一定会造成失业率大幅度上升，所以，在股市大跌之前，失业率一定有一个不断走低的过程，然后才会出现上升。3）通胀率通货膨胀上升，通常是经济繁荣周期末的信号，而且可能促使央行收紧货币政策，引发经济融资成本上升，造成经济衰退和熊市——不过，由于央行对利率的操纵，导致利率变化滞后于经济中的自然利率，通货膨胀在走高的时候，股市通常就已经先跌为敬，通胀高点是大跌的滞后指标。4）ISM指数ISM的全称是“美国供应管理协会（Instituteof Supply Management）”，其每月公布的采购经理人指数（PMI）及制造业指数（通常被简称为ISM指数），代表着着美国乃至全球经济在生产领域的状态，当这两个指标由高点开始回落的时候，通常意味着经济开始变差，公司的盈利减少，是非常明显的经济领先指标。5）收益率曲线“收益率曲线（YC）”概念，我以往曾多次普及过，而在股市大跌之前，通常都会出现收益率曲线扁平化的现象——长期利率（通常用10年期国债收益率）与短期利率（2年或3个月国债收益率）趋同甚至倒挂，通常是短期的国债收益率上升（央行加息），而长期的国债收益率下降（避险资金涌入抬高国债价格），收益率扁平化会让商业银行丧失向经济体投放信贷的动力，所以预示着经济短期内的回落，股市可能面临大跌。到了2019年，高盛又对这个报告进行了补充，特意补充了一个指标：6）私营部门的收支平衡，通过计算居民及企业收入与支出差额，衡量金融过热风险。 然后，对上述6项指标所处的历史百分位数取平均值，就可以得到美股的“风险指数”了。下图，就是1955-2019年底65年的美股风险指数（灰色竖条为美股暴跌期）。一般而言，这个风险指数高于60%，那么回撤的风险会明显加大，风险指数越高，回撤幅度通常也越大，如果到达顶点（通常在70%以上），基本意味着大跌在即；当风险指数低于40%时，股市上涨的可能性更大，而且其值越低，股市的上涨的空间也越大。高盛的报告，还将美股暴跌分为突发事件类熊市（半年即可恢复）、经济衰退类熊市（2年左右才能恢复）、结构错位类熊市（超预期的经济深度衰退，恢复时间可长达10年），而高盛所发明的这个美股风险指标，除个别突发事件类熊市之外，对于所有类型的美股暴跌，都具有良好的指示作用。2000年、2008年和2018年，这个风险指数都分别达到了10年来的最高水平，美股随后都遭遇了暴跌。2018年大跌之后，由于2019年该指数持续下降，所以，高盛2019年底大胆预测，2020年美国不会遭遇经济衰退，美股牛市将延续……结果，就是疫情袭击之下，2020年3月份的暴跌，高盛惨遭打脸。但是，我并不想说这个指标无效——恰恰相反的是，我认为这个指数非常有效，2020年的疫情袭击叠加沙特原油价格战叠加美国公司债危机，才使得2020年3月份的暴跌如此迅猛。然而，就在美股暴跌至最低点的时候，根据上述模型，高盛又发出了明确的预测，声称2020年结束的时候，美股标普500的点位将恢复到3200点左右，我特意还将那张图保留下来（见下图）。现在，2020年即将过去，美股不仅反弹至前高，还远超出前高，高盛这个“美股风险模型”的高度预见性，由此可略见一斑。目前，高盛并没有公布，最新的美股风险值到底是多少，但我们可以通过分解指标来测算一下。1）美股当前的估值水平，按照席勒市盈率，仅次于2000年科技股泡沫，在Shiller PE所处的历史百分位为95%。2）美国失业率：处于疫情爆发以来的低点，约处于近10年40%分位的水平。3）美元通货膨胀率：目前正在抬升，处于过去10年40%历史分位水平。4）ISM指数：受益于美国疫情救助法案，美国的中小企业和居民收入暴增，美国人民有了钱，当然是买买买了，企业生产自然要迎合这种消费，所以目前美国的PMI，基本已经抬升到了近10年来的最高点，处于过去10年历史93%分位的水平。5）收益率曲线扁平程度，用10年期-2年期国债收益率表示，其扁平程度在2019年底到达顶点，在美联储将基准利率降至0之后，基差有所恢复，目前的长短利率差，约处于70%的历史低位。6）私营部门收支平衡：这个指标我无法获取历史数据，暂且放弃。就用美股估值、失业率、通胀率、ISM指数和收益率曲线扁平程度这5个指标来进行平均，目前的美股风险指数大约是68%。68%的指标值，已经明显高于2019年底的61%，接近2018年底69%的水平。就在这两天，美国又推出了9000亿美元的财政刺激计划，这必将进一步推升美国的通胀率，而美国的PMI已经处于高位下滑中，而长短债利差在美联储购买国债的操纵之下，也很难有效抬升，如果美国的失业率开始稳定，那么——美股的大跌时刻，很快就会来临。跳一次大神的话，我个人判断，如果美股在未来半年内继续上涨，并且上半年标普指数就涨至4000点左右的话，暴跌发生的时段，很可能在2021年年中前后。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":333274960,"gmtCreate":1609301753950,"gmtModify":1703738677480,"author":{"id":"3571992769878529","authorId":"3571992769878529","name":"Nisnivlek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7e63ae933a3a94693af3ca8b29c972","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Noted. Thanks","listText":"Noted. Thanks","text":"Noted. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333274960","repostId":2095573820,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3252709,"gmtCreate":1609304249005,"gmtModify":1609304249005,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":333274960,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":333252813,"gmtCreate":1609295339632,"gmtModify":1703738646038,"author":{"id":"3570655237956764","authorId":"3570655237956764","name":"hengzhao","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"你的意思 高盛应该预测到新冠？","listText":"你的意思 高盛应该预测到新冠？","text":"你的意思 高盛应该预测到新冠？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333252813","repostId":2095573820,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3252284,"gmtCreate":1609295648779,"gmtModify":1609295648779,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":333252813,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":333212408,"gmtCreate":1609285872604,"gmtModify":1703738590097,"author":{"id":"3558221200259849","authorId":"3558221200259849","name":"桑秀娟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f21f850d39dc227c692b95e106f4265c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"说的有道理","listText":"说的有道理","text":"说的有道理","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333212408","repostId":2095573820,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":333641562,"gmtCreate":1609258318956,"gmtModify":1703738518091,"author":{"id":"3570143283514457","authorId":"3570143283514457","name":"仁者无敌的猪猪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"高盛**<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300104\">$乐视网(300104)$</a>","listText":"高盛**<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300104\">$乐视网(300104)$</a>","text":"高盛**$乐视网(300104)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333641562","repostId":2095573820,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3252118,"gmtCreate":1609294028500,"gmtModify":1609294028500,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":333641562,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":333685757,"gmtCreate":1609254148579,"gmtModify":1703738466937,"author":{"id":"3568099945700012","authorId":"3568099945700012","name":"没有人比我更懂韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15391474b6bf8712ad5c17ea6bad5690","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1f49570794979e009a5efdeb6f4789","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"这是打算做空忽悠韭菜？？","listText":"这是打算做空忽悠韭菜？？","text":"这是打算做空忽悠韭菜？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333685757","repostId":2095573820,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3252064,"gmtCreate":1609293304007,"gmtModify":1609293304007,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":333685757,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a 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