Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts

MarketWatch2021-10-12

It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market AFP via Getty Images It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...

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257

JeremyKok
·2021-10-14
Yesterday another seesaw day of trading. Up and down. Please do not play with borrowed money, unless you have very clear strategy.
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Liuliusg
·2021-10-13
There is no right or wrong, buy and sell at your own comfortable price.
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3
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embraceit
·2021-10-13
Buy at your comfort price. Hold and sell at your right price. [看涨]
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LimLS
·2021-10-13
Buy the strongest of the strongest companies. Companies that you know that will survive and grow even bigger during bear. Then there will be no need to worry about bull or bear. You might even hope for a bear so you can buy more for cheap.
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- 12330aa5:
  That's why have to do own homework to understand the company and business before investing
  2021-10-13
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- fishinglo:
  Nice. This is a long-term strategy.
  2021-10-13
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AlvinCWC
·2021-10-13
Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion
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- LimLS:
  yes. we might be lucky and get the timing right once or twice or even more. but getting it wrong might make us lose big. stick to other strategy like DCA or value investing might be more prudent
  2021-10-13
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DragonKC
·2021-10-13
When u are in the stock markets, whether bull or bear it's not important. There is always money to be made. It's how you made it. There will always be winners n losers. That the beautiful of stock markets. Happy investing.
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- EdwardHughes:
  Yes, keep a good mood, frequent operation will make your mind unconscious.🙏🏻
  2021-10-13
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tchaikovskia
·2021-10-13
Sweet nuts
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4
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Sew
·2021-10-13
Dilemma now to go in averaging down or cut lost...
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ming22
·2021-10-13
Always have some silver bullet
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PickleT68
·2021-10-13
Thanks
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4
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FannyNg
·2021-10-13
Timely advice and importantly to invest with money that you have to be in better control even when the bear market comes
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Alan_Goh
·2021-10-13
Very well written article .. thanks for the reminder to all of us
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Abbas99m
·2021-10-13
Angry hungry bear😃
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- adonis123:
  Slowly bleed to death
  2021-10-13
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- 滚股怪:
  Yaya
  2021-10-13
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MNCoffee
·2021-10-13
🐻
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- vivo8787:
  Ok
  2021-10-17
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JoelLee
·2021-10-13
Re alllylylylyl
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- JoelLee:
  Ahahajajjauaiaja
  2021-10-13
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jingsheng
·2021-10-13
cool
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6
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- jingsheng:
  cool
  2021-10-13
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moneymaker1
·2021-10-13
Comment and like thanks
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7
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- Newbie_21:
  Done
  2021-10-13
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- PSYCHO82:
  Ok
  2021-10-13
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- JeremyKok:
  hi. please like and comment back. thank you.
  2021-10-14
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replaygoh
·2021-10-13
noted
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Sunny_Bee
·2021-10-13
The author has pointed it out that it is important to strike a balance between borrowed money and self funded capital. Use them at your advantage at different situation.
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happymoney
·2021-10-13
Polar
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- happymoney:
  Brown
  2021-10-13
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","article_id":"1198930462","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"为什么当熊市开始时你不会知道","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":822462932,"gmtCreate":1634166949346,"gmtModify":1634166950599,"author":{"id":"3567307840510045","authorId":"3567307840510045","name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yesterday another seesaw day of trading. Up and down. Please do not play with borrowed money, unless you have very clear strategy.","listText":"Yesterday another seesaw day of trading. Up and down. Please do not play with borrowed money, unless you have very clear strategy.","text":"Yesterday another seesaw day of trading. Up and down. Please do not play with borrowed money, unless you have very clear strategy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822462932","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822290150,"gmtCreate":1634132780761,"gmtModify":1634132787238,"author":{"id":"3571112889855060","authorId":"3571112889855060","name":"Liuliusg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86e7691637ffe866f31f181dbe2ede72","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"There is no right or wrong, buy and sell at your own comfortable price.","listText":"There is no right or wrong, buy and sell at your own comfortable price.","text":"There is no right or wrong, buy and sell at your own comfortable price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822290150","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822888539,"gmtCreate":1634114318233,"gmtModify":1634114328690,"author":{"id":"4087110108494710","authorId":"4087110108494710","name":"embraceit","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Buy at your comfort price. Hold and sell at your right price.&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"Buy at your comfort price. Hold and sell at your right price.&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"Buy at your comfort price. Hold and sell at your right price. [看涨]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822888539","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822120301,"gmtCreate":1634103293572,"gmtModify":1634103776017,"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Buy the strongest of the strongest companies. Companies that you know that will survive and grow even bigger during bear. Then there will be no need to worry about bull or bear. You might even hope for a bear so you can buy more for cheap.","listText":"Buy the strongest of the strongest companies. Companies that you know that will survive and grow even bigger during bear. Then there will be no need to worry about bull or bear. You might even hope for a bear so you can buy more for cheap.","text":"Buy the strongest of the strongest companies. Companies that you know that will survive and grow even bigger during bear. Then there will be no need to worry about bull or bear. You might even hope for a bear so you can buy more for cheap.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822120301","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6187035,"gmtCreate":1634139508272,"gmtModify":1634636690937,"authorId":3571792373977202,"author":{"id":3571792373977202,"authorId":3571792373977202,"name":"12330aa5","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822120301,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"That's why have to do own homework to understand the company and business before investing","text":"That's why have to do own homework to understand the company and business before investing","html":"That's why have to do own homework to understand the company and business before investing"},{"id":6186758,"gmtCreate":1634138185871,"gmtModify":1634138185871,"authorId":3479274725915373,"author":{"id":3479274725915373,"authorId":3479274725915373,"name":"fishinglo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture56","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822120301,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice. This is a long-term strategy.","text":"Nice. This is a long-term strategy.","html":"Nice. This is a long-term strategy."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822181638,"gmtCreate":1634101467192,"gmtModify":1634106317148,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion&nbsp;","listText":"Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion&nbsp;","text":"Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822181638","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6182702,"gmtCreate":1634103130714,"gmtModify":1634637023531,"authorId":3572923586954779,"author":{"id":3572923586954779,"authorId":3572923586954779,"name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822181638,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes. we might be lucky and get the timing right once or twice or even more. but getting it wrong might make us lose big. stick to other strategy like DCA or value investing might be more prudent","text":"yes. we might be lucky and get the timing right once or twice or even more. but getting it wrong might make us lose big. stick to other strategy like DCA or value investing might be more prudent","html":"yes. we might be lucky and get the timing right once or twice or even more. but getting it wrong might make us lose big. stick to other strategy like DCA or value investing might be more prudent"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822190840,"gmtCreate":1634098175282,"gmtModify":1634098176459,"author":{"id":"3577178099298017","authorId":"3577178099298017","name":"DragonKC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90c63c67a4e5f91e9dc0159f5b853ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"When u are in the stock markets, whether bull or bear it's not important.&nbsp; There is always money to be made. It's how you made it. There will always be winners n losers.&nbsp; That the beautiful of stock markets. Happy investing.&nbsp;","listText":"When u are in the stock markets, whether bull or bear it's not important.&nbsp; There is always money to be made. It's how you made it. There will always be winners n losers.&nbsp; That the beautiful of stock markets. Happy investing.&nbsp;","text":"When u are in the stock markets, whether bull or bear it's not important. There is always money to be made. It's how you made it. There will always be winners n losers. That the beautiful of stock markets. Happy investing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822190840","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6186832,"gmtCreate":1634138695893,"gmtModify":1634138695893,"authorId":9000000000000137,"author":{"id":9000000000000137,"authorId":9000000000000137,"name":"EdwardHughes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e92bc2beb2bc66553161dcca70a314","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822190840,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes, keep a good mood, frequent operation will make your mind unconscious.🙏🏻","text":"Yes, keep a good mood, frequent operation will make your mind unconscious.🙏🏻","html":"Yes, keep a good mood, frequent operation will make your mind unconscious.🙏🏻"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822190110,"gmtCreate":1634098166054,"gmtModify":1634099001883,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822190110","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822363446,"gmtCreate":1634092136308,"gmtModify":1634092171653,"author":{"id":"3584610636880639","authorId":"3584610636880639","name":"Sew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c8b2d3d13fc62e657695ed1e8b5e8a","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Dilemma now to go in averaging down or cut lost...","listText":"Dilemma now to go in averaging down or cut lost...","text":"Dilemma now to go in averaging down or cut lost...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822363446","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822369810,"gmtCreate":1634092034767,"gmtModify":1634092052358,"author":{"id":"3571044771112848","authorId":"3571044771112848","name":"ming22","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Always have some silver bullet&nbsp;","listText":"Always have some silver bullet&nbsp;","text":"Always have some silver bullet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822369810","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822397031,"gmtCreate":1634089744423,"gmtModify":1634089744576,"author":{"id":"3581915827887523","authorId":"3581915827887523","name":"PickleT68","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fce28b8d12bdeb2997c5098f8b8e413","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822397031","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822300107,"gmtCreate":1634088437842,"gmtModify":1634088590288,"author":{"id":"3570078045081862","authorId":"3570078045081862","name":"FannyNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26a7e220cf6527fe231925dee915cd17","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Timely advice and importantly to invest with money that you have to be in better control even when the bear&nbsp;market comes","listText":"Timely advice and importantly to invest with money that you have to be in better control even when the bear&nbsp;market comes","text":"Timely advice and importantly to invest with money that you have to be in better control even when the bear market comes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822300107","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822947573,"gmtCreate":1634087776456,"gmtModify":1634088054981,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Very well written article .. thanks for the reminder to all of us","listText":"Very well written article .. thanks for the reminder to all of us","text":"Very well written article .. thanks for the reminder to all of us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822947573","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822968816,"gmtCreate":1634085599995,"gmtModify":1634085601638,"author":{"id":"4091932914422900","authorId":"4091932914422900","name":"Abbas99m","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a026254fe4800d31971dee7f5e269073","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Angry hungry bear😃","listText":"Angry hungry bear😃","text":"Angry hungry bear😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822968816","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6179848,"gmtCreate":1634086530965,"gmtModify":1634637240870,"authorId":4087116753605820,"author":{"id":4087116753605820,"authorId":4087116753605820,"name":"adonis123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822968816,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Slowly bleed to <u>death</u>","text":"Slowly bleed to <u>death</u>","html":"Slowly bleed to <u>death</u>"},{"id":6182686,"gmtCreate":1634103010063,"gmtModify":1634637024943,"authorId":4091089381144950,"author":{"id":4091089381144950,"authorId":4091089381144950,"name":"滚股怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67621b4133ca0db91bff9766152a448","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822968816,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yaya","text":"Yaya","html":"Yaya"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822968907,"gmtCreate":1634085587131,"gmtModify":1634085587782,"author":{"id":"3578437374431441","authorId":"3578437374431441","name":"MNCoffee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1574b98e81022d53dfe703d67f405d4e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"🐻","listText":"🐻","text":"🐻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822968907","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6224334,"gmtCreate":1634428862968,"gmtModify":1634633751815,"authorId":3581711485322302,"author":{"id":3581711485322302,"authorId":3581711485322302,"name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822968907,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ok</u>","text":"<u>Ok</u>","html":"<u>Ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822982095,"gmtCreate":1634085080646,"gmtModify":1634085082443,"author":{"id":"3579882572140125","authorId":"3579882572140125","name":"JoelLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f6c92b13d94cba61906c07dbbb2ab6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Re alllylylylyl","listText":"Re alllylylylyl","text":"Re alllylylylyl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822982095","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6179444,"gmtCreate":1634085092154,"gmtModify":1634637275783,"authorId":3579882572140125,"author":{"id":3579882572140125,"authorId":3579882572140125,"name":"JoelLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f6c92b13d94cba61906c07dbbb2ab6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822982095,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ahahajajjauaiaja","text":"Ahahajajjauaiaja","html":"Ahahajajjauaiaja"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822931949,"gmtCreate":1634083791750,"gmtModify":1634083792377,"author":{"id":"3581677245508986","authorId":"3581677245508986","name":"jingsheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8033cad6345c7bb7d312f5a8020404a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822931949","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6178955,"gmtCreate":1634083798059,"gmtModify":1634637317267,"authorId":3581677245508986,"author":{"id":3581677245508986,"authorId":3581677245508986,"name":"jingsheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8033cad6345c7bb7d312f5a8020404a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822931949,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"cool","text":"cool","html":"cool"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822992872,"gmtCreate":1634083464897,"gmtModify":1634083466217,"author":{"id":"3579776933147795","authorId":"3579776933147795","name":"moneymaker1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f8d20b96172e32c5470b98d70479a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Comment and like thanks","listText":"Comment and like thanks","text":"Comment and like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822992872","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6178899,"gmtCreate":1634083612964,"gmtModify":1634637323052,"authorId":3581562486795328,"author":{"id":3581562486795328,"authorId":3581562486795328,"name":"Newbie_21","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822992872,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Done</u>","text":"<u>Done</u>","html":"<u>Done</u>"},{"id":6178912,"gmtCreate":1634083651613,"gmtModify":1634637321742,"authorId":3584840087767846,"author":{"id":3584840087767846,"authorId":3584840087767846,"name":"PSYCHO82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ab6b697c630c3b99e18227fdd119f4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822992872,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":6188852,"gmtCreate":1634166744028,"gmtModify":1634636539865,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822992872,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822902228,"gmtCreate":1634083004324,"gmtModify":1634083005344,"author":{"id":"3582963095283492","authorId":"3582963095283492","name":"replaygoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47b21291424a3d55039334a8de5cdb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"noted","listText":"noted","text":"noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822902228","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822022523,"gmtCreate":1634080880693,"gmtModify":1634080881518,"author":{"id":"4094200026092470","authorId":"4094200026092470","name":"Sunny_Bee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a82fcc3056cf5e54f42c722e19a7c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"The author has pointed it out that it is important to strike a balance between borrowed money and self funded capital. Use them at your advantage at different situation.","listText":"The author has pointed it out that it is important to strike a balance between borrowed money and self funded capital. Use them at your advantage at different situation.","text":"The author has pointed it out that it is important to strike a balance between borrowed money and self funded capital. Use them at your advantage at different situation.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822022523","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":822026670,"gmtCreate":1634080838822,"gmtModify":1634080839339,"author":{"id":"3569807126010989","authorId":"3569807126010989","name":"happymoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b835f693b89bd9b980cc013a40c669","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Polar","listText":"Polar","text":"Polar","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822026670","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p>\n<p>I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p>\n<p>And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p>\n<p>This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p>\n<p>Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p>\n<p>But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p>\n<p>If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p>\n<p>This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p>\n<p><b>Comments of market timers</b></p>\n<p>I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>\n <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>\n <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>\n <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>\n <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>\n <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p>\n<p><b>Investment lesson</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p>\n<p>This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p>\n<p>The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p>\n<p>For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p>\n<p>But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6178120,"gmtCreate":1634080849071,"gmtModify":1634637396976,"authorId":3569807126010989,"author":{"id":3569807126010989,"authorId":3569807126010989,"name":"happymoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b835f693b89bd9b980cc013a40c669","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":822026670,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Brown","text":"Brown","html":"Brown"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":257,"commentSize":44,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}