看空声音此起彼伏，但美股还将迎来大涨？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

看空声音此起彼伏，但美股还将迎来大涨？

腾讯美股2021-10-26

当几乎所有市场参与者都估计市场已经形成泡沫，随时可能崩盘的时候，关于崩盘和泡沫的论断就反而变得无法成立了。再加上，所谓“错失恐惧症”（FOMO）依然广泛存在着，这一切很可能意味着，美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势，之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。从市盈率来看，美股市场当前的价位已经来到了历史级的超高水平，让过去许多泡沫的顶点都相形见绌。正因为如此，近期以来，关于美股形成泡沫，必然破灭的风险的警告声...

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没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活
·2021-10-27
搞笑，很多人不看文章就瞎吹，9月份悲观，现在都快十月底了，还悲观，现在都觉得还会涨，你觉得还会涨吗
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心灵gg
·2021-10-27
看看大盘的表演
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- HC1979:
  [财迷]
  2021-10-27
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T20211211790
·2021-10-27
道指到39000会给诸位表演绝活的别着急
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2
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恒跌
·2021-10-27
看空的是癌股好不好，各路圈钱资金搞癌股，两天三只新股破发，没有卖空制度的癌股定是奇葩多
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6
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Huan娱
·2021-10-27
放心不会崩盘
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1
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浴缸潜水员
·2021-10-26
确实，大众不可信。否则就不存在韭菜一说了。[傲娇] $道琼斯(.DJI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$标普500(.SPX)$
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- 滚股怪:
  Wop
  2021-10-27
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- 浴缸潜水员:
  [开心]
  2021-10-27
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- 金融难民:
  说说而已，指数才是真金白银的选择
  2021-10-27
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查看更多 1 条评论
老郭头2020
·2021-10-26
总听蝲蝲蛄叫唤还不用种地了呢
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389
·2021-10-26
本质还是在美联储…
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coming one after another, but US stocks will still usher in a big rise?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66039da382f55566b2a5c709ef2cd1e0","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"当几乎所有市场参与者都估计市场已经形成泡沫，随时可能崩盘的时候，关于崩盘和泡沫的论断就反而变得无法成立了。再加上，所谓“错失恐惧症”（FOMO）依然广泛存在着，这一切很可能意味着，美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势，之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。\n\n\n从市盈率来看，美股市场当前的价位已经来到了历史级的超高水平，让过去许多泡沫的顶点都相形见绌。正因为如此，近期以来，关于美股形成泡沫，必然破灭的风险的警告声也日益高涨起来。\n毋庸赘言，这巨大的风险已经形成了整个市场所面临的严峻挑战。只不过，这些警告虽然就大方向而言是正确的，但是投资者现在可能还没有到必须按照其行事的时机。这里最微妙的地方就在于，当几乎所有市场参与者都估计市场已经形成泡沫，随时可能崩盘的时候，关于崩盘和泡沫的论断就反而变得无法成立了。\n再加上，所谓“错失恐惧症”（FOMO）依然广泛存在着，这一切很可能意味着，美股市场还将迎来一轮重大涨势，之后才可能走向不可避免的结局。\n缺失的关键指标\n极端化的债务，高保证金债务，高估值，再加上低收益率，这些成分几乎已经快要配全了一副崩盘的药方。很多个月以来，保证金债务的高企已经成为了越来越多市场观察家的心头之患。事实就是，保证金债务水平很久前就已经达到了历史性的高位，超过了之前若干周期的峰值。比如，早在去年11月，美股市场的保证金债务规模就已经可以和1999年与2008年相提并论了。可是，从那之后，保证金债务水平又猛增了30%。现在，保证金债务总额已经来到了9115亿美元。\n哪怕以相对于国内生产总值的比例来衡量，保证金债务水平现在也相当于美国全部经济体量的大约4%，较之2000年和2008年的高点高出一半左右。当然，许多牛派会强调，相对于标普500指数的总市值，则保证金债务的水平还算不上特别高。这个结论也许是正确的，麻烦在于，产生这个结论的逻辑本身是荒唐的——在泡沫时期当中，标普500指数的市值当然会自动上涨。更何况，保证金债务对市值的比率现在虽然不在历史最高点，但是至少已经和世纪之交的互联网泡沫时期大致相当了。\n总而言之，投资者采取相对倾向于看空的立场，无疑是有充分根据的。事实上，大家近期也在不断听到越来越多关于市值高企和行情过热的警告。问题在于，虽然这些警告都揭示了很多问题，但是现在，市场依然缺少一个泡沫必不可少的要件，即FOMO，或者说错失恐惧症。目前，美股市场上的牛派和熊派还大约是一比一，势均力敌。只不过，缺失的FOMO未来几个月乃至几个季度却可能最终到来。如果结合上述这些因素进行考虑，结论则是短期之内，市场可能上演一波可观的涨势。\nFOMO是重中之重\n如果市场上的几乎所有参与者都相信，随时都可能会发生崩盘，那么任何关于泡沫的论断就将变得无法成立。归根结底，泡沫的叙事当中，其要素正是贪婪、欣快症和乐观。至少目前，美股市场的情绪还没有走到那一步。比如说，目前看涨投资者在市场当中的占比还不到40%，与此同时，看空投资者的占比也有30%以上。\n\n与8月相比，可以发现市场情绪在9月间明显更加倾向于悲观——8月间，看空投资者的比例只有24%，而看涨投资者所占的比例却与9月大致相当。\n市场历史显示，当持悲观立场的投资者数量增加，往往都是买进机会出现的时候。因此，从情绪指标来看，这就意味着和几个月前相比，现在更适合买进美股。\n事实就是，那些真正的泡沫前夜，欣快症严重程度都达到了历史级的水平，比如在2000年，看涨投资者的占比超过了70%，几乎相当于目前的两倍。\n\n与此同时，货币市场基金资产规模的变化轨迹，也清楚地体现出了投资者的这种更倾向于消极，而非积极的立场。目前，货币市场基金的总规模大约是4.52万亿美元，只是略低于2020年疫情大崩盘后的水平而已。\n这一数据为何重要？答案是，货币市场基金的设定，是一种高度稳定，且富于流动性的投资。这些基金的投资对象主要包括现金和期限不足十二个月的债券等。虽然私营投资者也可以买卖货币市场基金，但是在这一领域当中，他们只是小玩家，整个市场主要是由机构投资者，比如银行、保险公司和政府等主导的。\n总而言之，货币市场基金的资产情况可以说明有多少现金正在作壁上观，能够在短期之内投入使用。此外，从这一数据当中，还可以清楚地窥见机构投资者，即所谓“聪明钱”依然在犹豫之中，不愿意全身心投入股票，因此才选择大量持有现金或者流动性资产。\nFOMO燃料充足\n因此，一方面看来，当下的美股市场依然缺乏欣快症，相反，许多投资者依然站在相对悲观的立场上。不然的话，也就无法解释大家会持有如此规模的短期流动性的一幕。此外，美股市场的投资者也必须密切关注债券市场。数据显示，这一市场上，投资者目前也在大举撤资。\n\n抛售的原因，就是即将到来的加息。诚然，利率的上涨意味着即将到来的新债券将提供更高的票息，但是问题在于，那些已经发行的债券，其票息却不会再变化了。结果就是，大家纷纷售出债券，导致价格下跌。\n美国银行最近的全球基金经理人调查也发现，更多资产配置专家选择了减持债券，其减持力度达到了调查二十多年前开始以来所仅见的水平。\n\n总之，现在已经有大量资金在作壁上观了，但是在与此同时，资本还在从其他领域不断撤出。\n这些都意味着，这些资金未来有很大概率流入美股市场，最终在投资者当中触发全面的FOMO。在具体构成上，这一方面是来自于各大央行继续犹豫不决等待观望的态度，一方面也是股价越涨就会带动越多投资者参与的雪球效应使然。事实上，这一大趋势向回可以一直追溯到全球金融危机的时代。2009年以来，股票在投资者总资产当中的占比一直在稳步走高，现在已经达到了和2000年类似的高度。\n\n在这样的大背景下，一种新的叙事已经兴起——TINA RIF，意思是，投资者除开股票之外别无选择，因此任何抵抗都是徒劳的。如果这样的叙事继续铺开，则短期乃至中期之内的猛烈涨势便被人为赋予了合理性。因为到了最后关头，所有人都会冲进舞池，希望在派对结束前狂舞一番。到那时，也就进入了属于FOMO的时期，后者自我滚起雪球，而股价上涨再上涨也就不可避免了。\n最后涨势或已开始\n最近几天的标普500指数表现已经开始传达出一种有趣的信息，即上行趋势正在变得越来越强势。从这个角度看，之前几周的下跌似乎已经形成了一种完美的空头陷阱。下一个阶段，这一切大概率会被最终确定为一场双底反转。站在图表分析师的立场上，这都是相对看涨的指标。因此，也许这一长期大牛市的最后一波涨势，现在已经宣告开始。\n\n结论\n虽然对于基本面研究者而言，说美股还有全盘大涨的潜力，这种判断缺失是难以接受的，但是事实就是事实，是不以人的意志为转移的。现在最显而易见的是，投资者缺失缺乏其他的选项，股票又是他们很容易获得的。更不必说，在牛派和熊派如此势均力敌的时候，就下定泡沫的结论显然是为时太早。\n不过，如果市场能够结束FOMO缺失的时期，股票价格就将在未来几个月当中大涨。显然，并不是所有人都愿意参加派对，而且大家都知道，当每一个派对参加者都在舞池当中没有明天一样地狂舞时，派对的结束也就开始了倒计时。总之，无论如何，现在肯定还不是做空美股市场的时候。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":855032907,"gmtCreate":1635311773839,"gmtModify":1635311773839,"author":{"id":"3451008041626229","authorId":"3451008041626229","name":"没有金刚钻别揽瓷器活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c968c28c6902568ed606452e3f4e6997","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3451008041626229","authorIdStr":"3451008041626229"},"htmlText":"搞笑，很多人不看文章就瞎吹，9月份悲观，现在都快十月底了，还悲观，现在都觉得还会涨，你觉得还会涨吗","listText":"搞笑，很多人不看文章就瞎吹，9月份悲观，现在都快十月底了，还悲观，现在都觉得还会涨，你觉得还会涨吗","text":"搞笑，很多人不看文章就瞎吹，9月份悲观，现在都快十月底了，还悲观，现在都觉得还会涨，你觉得还会涨吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855032907","repostId":1197756765,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":852267276,"gmtCreate":1635284986607,"gmtModify":1635284986607,"author":{"id":"3583668911828878","authorId":"3583668911828878","name":"心灵gg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b3fa0744509cf45f2e0b088a521e5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583668911828878","authorIdStr":"3583668911828878"},"htmlText":"看看大盘的表演","listText":"看看大盘的表演","text":"看看大盘的表演","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852267276","repostId":1197756765,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6340339,"gmtCreate":1635301201753,"gmtModify":1635301201792,"authorId":3581588708983165,"author":{"id":3581588708983165,"idStr":"3581588708983165","authorId":3581588708983165,"name":"HC1979","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":852267276,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","html":"[财迷]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":852204393,"gmtCreate":1635267624384,"gmtModify":1635267624384,"author":{"id":"3513515210222460","authorId":"3513515210222460","name":"T20211211790","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57bce6f86981401031c0467630300ddc","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3513515210222460","authorIdStr":"3513515210222460"},"htmlText":"道指到39000会给诸位表演绝活的别着急","listText":"道指到39000会给诸位表演绝活的别着急","text":"道指到39000会给诸位表演绝活的别着急","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852204393","repostId":1197756765,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":852208589,"gmtCreate":1635267208315,"gmtModify":1635267208315,"author":{"id":"3464587978783849","authorId":"3464587978783849","name":"恒跌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1979ed439107058a8ba67c3a90477ff6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464587978783849","authorIdStr":"3464587978783849"},"htmlText":"看空的是癌股好不好，各路圈钱资金搞癌股，两天三只新股破发，没有卖空制度的癌股定是奇葩多","listText":"看空的是癌股好不好，各路圈钱资金搞癌股，两天三只新股破发，没有卖空制度的癌股定是奇葩多","text":"看空的是癌股好不好，各路圈钱资金搞癌股，两天三只新股破发，没有卖空制度的癌股定是奇葩多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852208589","repostId":1197756765,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":852648542,"gmtCreate":1635264940234,"gmtModify":1635264940234,"author":{"id":"3561649565466203","authorId":"3561649565466203","name":"Huan娱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f0e6d86680b202c05ed56a4c11e9bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561649565466203","authorIdStr":"3561649565466203"},"htmlText":"放心 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