冰火两重天，A股涨美股跌会成为新常态吗？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

冰火两重天，A股涨美股跌会成为新常态吗？

格隆汇2022-06-21

冰火两重天，是股民对近一个月来中外股市表现最直接的感受。另一个感受，是有点似梦似幻般的不真实。来看一张图，从4月27日到今天的近1个月来，A股走出了与外围市场巨大背离的行情。截至目前，A股期间反弹接近15%，而美股纳指期间大跌超15%，当然还有很多其他市场也大跌了不少。一直以来，A股与美股市场从来都是跟涨不跟跌的尿性。然而自从两国货币政策开始背离之后，一切也都开始背离了。这种情况以前其实也没少出现...

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马甲
·2022-06-21
吹跌了吧。
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行天下639800
·2022-06-21
先别吹！3300点都没站牢
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璇玑_6970
·2022-06-21
还618刺激，今年618数据贴出来看看
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真的英雄
·2022-06-21
利好房价，感恩
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抢菜抢菜抢菜
·2022-06-21
A股暴涨美股暴跌之后是平衡状态
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iAm22
·2022-06-21
不能骄傲哦会被打脸的！[无语] [得意]
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- iAm22:
  [得意]那白等和美联储更紧张才对啊要更卖力啦
  2022-06-22
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- 在妖风阵阵中冷静:
  我这几天看过几大平台，几乎所有新闻都是说美国要衰退了
  2022-06-21
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旷世猛男
·2022-06-21
厉害了我的国。赶英超美已经是是昨天的事了
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1237chou
·2022-06-21
A股只用看大盘就行了，2800-3700，逢跌买入，稍微高点抛出就这样，没什么好讨论的，其他的策略无异于诈骗
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- 赵大侠赵大侠:
  哈哈哈哈哈红红火火恍恍惚惚
  2022-06-22
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- 章家卫:
  哈哈
  2022-06-21
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- 奉旨赚钱:
  对
  2022-06-21
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查看更多 2 条评论
一路往北
·2022-06-21
A股逆势上涨，有没有另一种可能🤔
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傻傻分不清楚的虎虎
·2022-06-21
别吹啦，再吹a股又要飘了
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flying100
·2022-06-21
厉害了我的国
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T20211211647
·2022-06-21
**吧？
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href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/534170><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>冰火两重天，是股民对近一个月来中外股市表现最直接的感受。另一个感受，是有点似梦似幻般的不真实。来看一张图，从4月27日到今天的近1个月来，A股走出了与外围市场巨大背离的行情。截至目前，A股期间反弹接近15%，而美股纳指期间大跌超15%，当然还有很多其他市场也大跌了不少。一直以来，A股与美股市场从来都是跟涨不跟跌的尿性。然而自从两国货币政策开始背离之后，一切也都开始背离了。这种情况以前其实也没少出现...</p>\n\n<a 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normal?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad465a64e2d7edeb2f6a146ff74b48ae","symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"冰火两重天，是股民对近一个月来中外股市表现最直接的感受。另一个感受，是有点似梦似幻般的不真实。来看一张图，从4月27日到今天的近1个月来，A股走出了与外围市场巨大背离的行情。截至目前，A股期间反弹接近15%，而美股纳指期间大跌超15%，当然还有很多其他市场也大跌了不少。一直以来，A股与美股市场从来都是跟涨不跟跌的尿性。然而自从两国货币政策开始背离之后，一切也都开始背离了。这种情况以前其实也没少出现过，但这一次在疫情和全球格局大变化之下，两者政策背离的决心，以及政策对市场的影响，似乎都比以前要大很多。中国身处经济全球化时代并且占据重要地位，即使外围大利空对我们直接影响不大，但冲击的力量是会逐渐累积的。尤其是在A股现在单边行情涨得越来越飘，与外围市场越来越背离，不免让人担心后劲不足的问题。所以现在的问题是，如果未来中外市场趋势融合回归，会是以哪种情况出现？01或进入中场短期调整时刻自从上周大金融开始接棒赛道股大涨以来，板块轮动就明显有加快趋势。今天的A股盘面，有两大重要特征需要关注。一是板块的大面积冷热转化。最大的变化特征是大消费转热，上游材料和中游的工业制造转冷。这段时间鼓励消费政策密集出来，叠加618消费数据刺激，消费板块上涨存在明确驱动力。同时，房子和汽车两大领域的数据，也给市场打了两针鸡血。尤其地产，6月的房子销售在大量政策扶持和疫后意向订单堰塞湖泄洪下，数据靓丽得惊人，刺激地产、家电、建筑装修等板块大涨。但另一方面，上游原料集体大跌，黑色系期货跌幅夸张且令人意外。尽管在政策上有一些监管措施影响，比如对煤炭价格和钢铁产能限制政策，但它们作为能直接反应经济复苏的因子，这种大跌也实质反映市场对未来需求收缩的担忧。这种担忧，有内在的，也有由外及内的。消费对应需求，原料对应供应，供需行情大幅分化，并不是一个健康的经济状态。在外围市场较差的环境下，如果没有持续的利好驱动，这种不健康状态就跟容易向弱方调整。二是资金的快进快出、战略撤退。A股从4月27日的低点至今，一个月都不到，已经有接近1/3的细分行业累计涨幅超过30%，有8成行业涨幅超过15%。其中，光伏、汽车、锂电、金融、电力、教育和部分消费龙头等热门赛道板块涨幅甚至让人闻到了牛市的疯狂味道。北上资金从近两周的大幅流入，大量买入的也都是这些，基本把赛道板块都买过了一遍。接下来，A股的下一个“15%”，靠什么来支撑？或许在机构层面，心里面也没有底。毕竟现在外围市场一直在跌跌不休，经济面也一塌糊涂。既然看不清，选择观望是最稳妥的策略。尤其这一个月来的单边行情导致积压的获利盘越来越大，资金要么大幅换仓或获利离场的诉求力度是极大的。今天北向资金全天净卖出97.03亿元，结束连续4日净买入，说明市场进入博弈阶段。02关注外部市场的潜在冲击现在欧洲、美国、日本等主要国家因为普遍陷入能源紧缺、物价通胀、经济滞涨、尤其是美国启动超强加息周期引发的流动性紧张等危机问题，导致金融市场也遭到重大打击，是这些市场不断大跌的根本原因。从经济和金融市场整体感观看，就像是一团糟。美国现在陷入通胀高烧不退带来的各种压力，最终被迫大幅加息试图压制通胀，但这样下来，通胀没下来，股市倒是先崩为敬了，搞得民众怨声载道，很多资本家纷纷跳脚。但一些原料商，尤其石油厂商这一波真赚大发了。他们发现，美国启动加息周期让人担心未来经济会受冲击，同时现在油气能源等大宗商品在大涨，对他们来说，不扩投资进行增产竟然才是最优的策略，（与其担心现在巨额投资在未来油价下跌导致亏损的风险，还不如躺赚让油气供应维持紧张从而维持高价的红利）。拜登上周急的当众大骂石油厂商“赚的钱比上帝还多”，但除了扬言加税来嘴炮一下，实际只能无可奈何。上周拜登放开委内瑞拉的制裁，允许其重新向欧洲卖油缓解压力，其实跟松口对华贸易征税一样，都是无奈妥协。不知道拜登有没有后悔拱火俄乌局势，但一些欧盟国家的领导人心里，可能肯定是有的。现在的欧盟情况甚至被美国还糟糕，不但深陷在能源危机当中，还要面对由此引发的其他供应链危机带来的通胀危机。昨天英国伦敦的民众大规模上街，抗议生活成本飙升。把两百年来尊贵生活形成的贵族绅士气抛弃，被迫思考柴米油盐的苟且，已经足够反映形势挺严峻了。再过几个月就是寒冬期来了，这些缺电少汽的欧洲国家，到时候还要应对激增的用能需求，如果乌俄局势还未能缓解，那么这将是一个很大的考验。对资本市场来说，就是能源的易涨难跌，是经济的不稳定。还有日本，现在的债务/GDP杠杆高到了266%，经济长期萎靡下，利息都难平账，庞氏游戏玩不下去，干脆明确躺平摆烂了。还有很多其他新兴国家，多少都面临巨大通胀和资本换回美元流出引发流动性危机的双重压力，显然就是处在以前轮回过的美元收割周期。这些国家都是货币自由流通，同时以美国经济主导及美元唯首是瞻的经济体，除了美国，几乎没有独立的货币主权。结果就是，它们很难一荣俱荣，但一损俱损是逃不掉的，尤其是祸起的是它们的带头大哥——美国的时候。无论是能源供应局势，还是加息周期，还是地缘政治导致的逆全球化，都是由这位带头大哥在背后操刀，并且还远未到收尾阶段。所以这些因素带来的负面冲击，还将持续。目前市场对7月份美国继续加息75基点的预期极高，接下来这些国家的经济压力甚至会越来越大。接下来，我们需要认真考虑两个问题：一是国外金融市场对此的预期消化是充分？二是对国内市场的传导力度如何？（对此两问题，笔者也没有答案）但有些是可以说的，其他国家不用说了，未来下跌的概率肯定大于上涨。但美股可能不大一样。大通胀及加息大周期虽然对美国经济的冲击可能很大，但加息也会导致全球资金回流美国，进而流入美债和美股市场，起到一定托底作用。同时，现在美股从高位跌下来幅度挺大，纳斯达克甚至从高点至今跌近30%，在经济收缩压力下，可能会继续面临业绩下行带来的二次冲击。客观来讲，很多美股头部巨头，真不失为为全球最好的企业（有竞争优势、有全球市场、有美元铸币税赋能），掌握很多定价权，长期依然有高确定性的发展潜力。现在美股头部权重股市盈率并不算高。十多倍、二十多倍算是标配，并不算贵。如果未来美股再大跌一波，这些巨头肯定是会跌出长期价值的机会来。03尾声回到中国市场。我们是一直存在很强的货币政策独立性，经济逆周期调整力度也非常大，现在内循环战略越来越发挥重要作用，同时一季度A股跌幅明显过大反而美股没什么跌为A股逆势走强带来底层支撑，所以才有A股的独立行情。但作为全球经贸和制造业中心，外部的需求变化也尤值得密切关注。总的来说，现在的股市行情，短期谨慎看待，多看少动，朝着合理估值水平高抛低吸，是比较稳妥的策略。但一些确定性较高的投资机会还是有的。首先是政策的红利，前两月的政策重心，是纾困企业，复工复产，如今疫情消退之后，政策重心自然就落在了促消费层面。所以我们看这段时间各省市各行业对消费补贴的力度是非常大的。这意味着未来一段时间，大消费都值得高看一眼。其次是政策红利的兑现预期。这方面将集中在新老大基建工程、先进制造业、出口贸易（纺织、家电、中低端机电设备等），因为政策优惠的力度、资金支持力度都是最大，下半年或最早二季度，就会迎来它们的业绩验证期，也会是机构关注埋伏的下一个重点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":689461622,"gmtCreate":1655795501370,"gmtModify":1704863185438,"author":{"id":"3492666186842287","authorId":"3492666186842287","name":"马甲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0313a49e0eab3259826c3cbaa473b1c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3492666186842287","idStr":"3492666186842287"},"htmlText":"吹跌了吧。","listText":"吹跌了吧。","text":"吹跌了吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689461622","repostId":1197040344,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689482423,"gmtCreate":1655793189766,"gmtModify":1704863174090,"author":{"id":"3444732750101190","authorId":"3444732750101190","name":"行天下639800","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/7a9872d82227fdf805e09770cb2961a8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3444732750101190","idStr":"3444732750101190"},"htmlText":"先别吹！3300点都没站牢","listText":"先别吹！3300点都没站牢","text":"先别吹！3300点都没站牢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689482423","repostId":1197040344,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689486436,"gmtCreate":1655792859726,"gmtModify":1704863172379,"author":{"id":"4115895343433780","authorId":"4115895343433780","name":"璇玑_6970","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d640b16f09482edf9a3e4de28933e684","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4115895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