YOLO Bets, Deconstructed_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

YOLO Bets, Deconstructed

The Wall Street Journal2021-12-17

Meme stock and crypto investors don’t pay much attention to traditional Wall Street advice. Maybe they should. Bitcoin proponents talk about the cryptocurrency hitting $1 million or even its total ...

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peakaboo
·2021-12-17
Wow okay
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sfleong1
·2021-12-17
Like n comment
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- L1324:
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Maybe they should.\n\nBitcoin proponents talk about the cryptocurrency hitting $1 million or even its total ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/yolo-bets-deconstructed-11639667218?mod=rss_markets_main\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GME","symbol_name":"游戏驿站","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/yolo-bets-deconstructed-11639667218?mod=rss_markets_main","article_id":"1196473478","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196473478","pubTimestamp":1639698172,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Meme stock and crypto investors don’t pay much attention to traditional Wall Street advice. Maybe th","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wsj.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"translate_title":"YOLO Bets，解构","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"DWAC":0.9,"GME":0.9},"content_text":"Meme stock and crypto investors don’t pay much attention to traditional Wall Street advice. Maybe they should.\n\nBitcoin proponents talk about the cryptocurrency hitting $1 million or even its total value reaching $300 trillion. The most enthusiastic “apes” claim to have much of their savings in AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC -0.85% shares and post the #AMC500K hashtag—indicating their belief that the movie chain’s shares will hit $500,000 in the “mother of all short squeezes.”\n\nLeaving aside the obvious problem that these aspirational values for bitcoin and AMC are 15 and 12 times the size of the entire U.S. economy, respectively, even those with more modest targets and big personal bets are ignoring a classic wealth-building formula used by investing legends like Warren Buffett and Bill Gross.\n\nThe Kelly criterion, developed by Bell Labs scientist John L. Kelly Jr. in the 1950s, tells you how much to bet for the highest rate of wealth growth without losing everything.\n\nInvestors very convinced in their analysis will make seemingly racy bets when using Kelly—so much so that some investors use a “half-Kelly” formula. After all, big losses on what seemed almost like a sure thing carries professional risk too, like losing clients.\n\nEven though crypto and meme stock investors often answer to nobody but themselves and have huge expectations, they shouldn’t bet the farm either. They actually should invest less as their expected value increases according to a counterintuitive paper on Kelly betting published by Victor Haghani and James White of Elm Wealth, a research-driven wealth adviser and manager.\n\nThey start out with a person who is faced with a 50/50 coin flip. Heads would mean losing everything and tails would mean some level of return. As the payoff rises, the percentage of wealth optimally wagered would too, but only at first. The expected outcome is the average of 50% of zero and 50% of their target. Should they bet more, though, if their “target upside payoff” is 15,000 times their investment instead of just 15 times?\n\n\nNo. A truly gigantic return would make us rich even if we own only a tiny bit of the investment. We would be needlessly risking money by buying any more. In Haghani and White’s intentionally simplified example, the highest share of one’s wealth to bet is about 17% once the upside payoff is between four and eight times your starting investment. From there it declines.\n\nAMC investors might not put the odds of bankruptcy at half, but it also isn’t zero. If some truly believe that AMC stock will be worth half a million dollars then 20 shares costing around $500 at today’s price will be worth a fortune of $10 million. Yet social media is full of people using the hashtag who say they have wagered tens of thousands—much of their wealth—on the stock, and that they won’t sell. Big bets are rarely wise, but especially not if you believe in an astronomically high price target.\n\nHighly-paid executives make the same error. Michael Saylor, chief executive officer of software firm Microstrategy, has had the company borrow money to buy bitcoin—a stash now worth about $5 billion. The entire company’s market value was never that high before it began to accumulate the cryptocurrency.\n\nIts net worth would be sharply negative if bitcoin went to zero, or even back down to what it fetched five years ago. 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