Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For "Fire And Ice" Correction_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For "Fire And Ice" Correction

zerohedge2021-10-08

Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...

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315

DragonKC
·2021-10-09
Nobody or institutions can predict which directions the market heading. Morgan Stanley just trying it's luck to get it desperately accurate. Flip or flop . What a joke. Haha.
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Gunners80
·2021-10-09
Really??
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- HUATkueh:
  Ok
  2021-10-09
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Gunners80
·2021-10-09
Fud
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- stardice:
  Liked and commented
  2021-10-09
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Jenjorjack
·2021-10-09
A destructive 20% of Fire and Ice in the mid cycle. I think could be more. Think about how to antifragile your holdings
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AnthonyC
·2021-10-09
Like please
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1
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- WBT13:
  done
  2021-10-09
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Hannaqing
·2021-10-09
like ple
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3
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- AnthonyC:
  Done
  2021-10-09
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- TJW1991:
  k
  2021-10-09
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roaringlion
·2021-10-09
Oooo
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天天有錢賺
·2021-10-09
Like
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7
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- 天天有錢賺:
  Latest
  2021-10-09
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Kevin92
·2021-10-09
Like and comment
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3
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- AnthonyC:
  Done
  2021-10-09
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claratan
·2021-10-09
Wow 👏 😮 👌
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4
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- Kevin92:
  Like and comment
  2021-10-09
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EHG
·2021-10-09
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- 土金水木火:
  Done
  2021-10-09
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evauoz
·2021-10-09
Sell ?
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5
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- suetyee:
  noo
  2021-10-09
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koolgal
·2021-10-09
Fire and Ice sounds like something out of Game of Thrones! But it is up to investors to decide what is best for them, for no matter what the outcome maybe, the quality stocks like Apple, Microsoft and Facebook will continue their growth trajectory far into the future! 👍😊🚀🚀🚀🌛🌛🌛
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- koolgal:
  Yes they are mine too. Buy and hold long term. 👍😊
  2021-10-09
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- a9032:
  Apple, Microsoft ,Facebook and AMZN are also my favorite stocks!They are all long term games!
  2021-10-09
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- koolgal:
  Thanks 👍😊
  2021-10-09
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查看更多 1 条评论
HuatKueh313
·2021-10-09
Like pls
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8
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- HuatKueh313:
  huat
  2021-10-09
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- 2e480c32:
  Yes
  2021-10-09
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- evauoz:
  liked
  2021-10-09
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DoreamonGo
·2021-10-09
Like
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3
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- DoreamonGo:
  Like
  2021-10-09
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小白添祥
·2021-10-09
like & comment please, thank you very much
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4
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- J288:
  pls like back. Thanks
  2021-10-09
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Joashua
·2021-10-09
Like
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4
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- 小白添祥:
  like & comment please, thank you very much
  2021-10-09
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Jl123456
·2021-10-09
no good
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- Jaymand:
  Ok
  2021-10-09
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- 小白添祥:
  like & comment please, thank you very much
  2021-10-09
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ML808
·2021-10-09
Why market responded is very different from the past?
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Pplymm
·2021-10-09
Like
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However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":821221878,"gmtCreate":1633749419522,"gmtModify":1633749420639,"author":{"id":"3577178099298017","authorId":"3577178099298017","name":"DragonKC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90c63c67a4e5f91e9dc0159f5b853ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nobody or institutions can predict which directions the market heading. Morgan Stanley just trying it's luck to get it desperately accurate. &nbsp;Flip or flop . What a joke. Haha.&nbsp;","listText":"Nobody or institutions can predict which directions the market heading. Morgan Stanley just trying it's luck to get it desperately accurate. &nbsp;Flip or flop . What a joke. Haha.&nbsp;","text":"Nobody or institutions can predict which directions the market heading. Morgan Stanley just trying it's luck to get it desperately accurate. Flip or flop . What a joke. Haha.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821221878","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821672635,"gmtCreate":1633744174509,"gmtModify":1633744174896,"author":{"id":"3568161254291931","authorId":"3568161254291931","name":"Gunners80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b631d2d208e0248c96ed1117c4db37e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Really??","listText":"Really??","text":"Really??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821672635","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6139752,"gmtCreate":1633747315518,"gmtModify":1634718058875,"authorId":3572312712757258,"author":{"id":3572312712757258,"authorId":3572312712757258,"name":"HUATkueh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/936c7c3c568dece3e2a6ae1a4510ab73","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821672635,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821672045,"gmtCreate":1633744144938,"gmtModify":1633745282871,"author":{"id":"3568161254291931","authorId":"3568161254291931","name":"Gunners80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b631d2d208e0248c96ed1117c4db37e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Fud","listText":"Fud","text":"Fud","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821672045","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6139872,"gmtCreate":1633747813655,"gmtModify":1634718048784,"authorId":3569374298664989,"author":{"id":3569374298664989,"authorId":3569374298664989,"name":"stardice","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821672045,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Liked and commented","text":"Liked and commented","html":"Liked and commented"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821640087,"gmtCreate":1633743038053,"gmtModify":1633743039298,"author":{"id":"3554873215379647","authorId":"3554873215379647","name":"Jenjorjack","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d4687aa5519f0d2fb1b18f916be861","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"A destructive 20% of Fire and Ice in the mid cycle. I think could be more. Think about how to antifragile your holdings","listText":"A destructive 20% of Fire and Ice in the mid cycle. I think could be more. Think about how to antifragile your holdings","text":"A destructive 20% of Fire and Ice in the mid cycle. I think could be more. Think about how to antifragile your holdings","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821640087","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821635909,"gmtCreate":1633738997269,"gmtModify":1633738997688,"author":{"id":"3571137160288122","authorId":"3571137160288122","name":"AnthonyC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821635909","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6137464,"gmtCreate":1633739007160,"gmtModify":1634718260217,"authorId":3573351657200487,"author":{"id":3573351657200487,"authorId":3573351657200487,"name":"WBT13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32eff74d0ce173f7e10df861c0ee416","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821635909,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821608693,"gmtCreate":1633737060871,"gmtModify":1633737061123,"author":{"id":"3586505171134311","authorId":"3586505171134311","name":"Hannaqing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f6e295b445101f45f6feb5b45e37a8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"like ple","listText":"like ple","text":"like ple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821608693","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6137427,"gmtCreate":1633738866636,"gmtModify":1634718263822,"authorId":3571137160288122,"author":{"id":3571137160288122,"authorId":3571137160288122,"name":"AnthonyC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821608693,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":6137543,"gmtCreate":1633739367951,"gmtModify":1634718252888,"authorId":3578904826776116,"author":{"id":3578904826776116,"authorId":3578904826776116,"name":"TJW1991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d13fbb3feb6459408472fb351d6fe0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821608693,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"k","text":"k","html":"k"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821609011,"gmtCreate":1633736739859,"gmtModify":1633736739963,"author":{"id":"3579156843305069","authorId":"3579156843305069","name":"roaringlion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26db20564bd7a68a6aec3cbf973dc88","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Oooo","listText":"Oooo","text":"Oooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821609011","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821845696,"gmtCreate":1633735580442,"gmtModify":1633735581028,"author":{"id":"3569157961325264","authorId":"3569157961325264","name":"天天有錢賺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87d6821c87a3f5345fd3b39e87a3710","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821845696","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136737,"gmtCreate":1633735587497,"gmtModify":1634718329466,"authorId":3569157961325264,"author":{"id":3569157961325264,"authorId":3569157961325264,"name":"天天有錢賺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87d6821c87a3f5345fd3b39e87a3710","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821845696,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Latest</u>","text":"<u>Latest</u>","html":"<u>Latest</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821842101,"gmtCreate":1633735386708,"gmtModify":1633735387858,"author":{"id":"3576274545052910","authorId":"3576274545052910","name":"Kevin92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ff4addbbdb8d9d15fec29f9709b0c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821842101","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6137430,"gmtCreate":1633738874975,"gmtModify":1634718263492,"authorId":3571137160288122,"author":{"id":3571137160288122,"authorId":3571137160288122,"name":"AnthonyC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821842101,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821848258,"gmtCreate":1633735288104,"gmtModify":1633735289045,"author":{"id":"3573731928321338","authorId":"3573731928321338","name":"claratan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6bbdac9048ff2e4b740f272576e2be","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Wow 👏 😮 👌&nbsp;","listText":"Wow 👏 😮 👌&nbsp;","text":"Wow 👏 😮 👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821848258","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136709,"gmtCreate":1633735380762,"gmtModify":1634718331980,"authorId":3576274545052910,"author":{"id":3576274545052910,"authorId":3576274545052910,"name":"Kevin92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ff4addbbdb8d9d15fec29f9709b0c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821848258,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","html":"Like and comment"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821841225,"gmtCreate":1633735173082,"gmtModify":1633735173870,"author":{"id":"3586941861951066","authorId":"3586941861951066","name":"EHG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e4734e50f795c3218330cbb6c3e9a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821841225","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136694,"gmtCreate":1633735264324,"gmtModify":1634718333178,"authorId":4087537231786360,"author":{"id":4087537231786360,"authorId":4087537231786360,"name":"土金水木火","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b569dff568eac68113202875c896b710","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821841225,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Done</u>","text":"<u>Done</u>","html":"<u>Done</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821854881,"gmtCreate":1633734668204,"gmtModify":1633734668406,"author":{"id":"4087513826666000","authorId":"4087513826666000","name":"evauoz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/280532533b0476328d845887d7308f4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Sell ?","listText":"Sell ?","text":"Sell ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821854881","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136704,"gmtCreate":1633735349877,"gmtModify":1634718332414,"authorId":4087554958389370,"author":{"id":4087554958389370,"authorId":4087554958389370,"name":"suetyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd19cd2dd51b79773e0fab6bfd14cd60","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821854881,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>noo</u>","text":"<u>noo</u>","html":"<u>noo</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821821192,"gmtCreate":1633733469585,"gmtModify":1633744768280,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Fire and Ice sounds like something out of Game of Thrones!&nbsp; But it is up to investors to decide what is best for them, for no matter what the outcome maybe, the quality stocks like Apple, Microsoft and Facebook will continue their growth trajectory far into the future! 👍😊🚀🚀🚀🌛🌛🌛","listText":"Fire and Ice sounds like something out of Game of Thrones!&nbsp; But it is up to investors to decide what is best for them, for no matter what the outcome maybe, the quality stocks like Apple, Microsoft and Facebook will continue their growth trajectory far into the future! 👍😊🚀🚀🚀🌛🌛🌛","text":"Fire and Ice sounds like something out of Game of Thrones! But it is up to investors to decide what is best for them, for no matter what the outcome maybe, the quality stocks like Apple, Microsoft and Facebook will continue their growth trajectory far into the future! 👍😊🚀🚀🚀🌛🌛🌛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821821192","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6142483,"gmtCreate":1633770949880,"gmtModify":1633770949880,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821821192,"type":1,"supId":6142436,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes they are mine too.&nbsp; Buy and hold long term. 👍😊","text":"Yes they are mine too.&nbsp; Buy and hold long term. 👍😊","html":"Yes they are mine too.&nbsp; Buy and hold long term. 👍😊"},{"id":6142436,"gmtCreate":1633770486823,"gmtModify":1633770486823,"authorId":3479274721693455,"author":{"id":3479274721693455,"authorId":3479274721693455,"name":"a9032","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture53","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821821192,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Apple, Microsoft ,Facebook and AMZN are also my favorite stocks!They are all long term games!","text":"Apple, Microsoft ,Facebook and AMZN are also my favorite stocks!They are all long term games!","html":"Apple, Microsoft ,Facebook and AMZN are also my favorite stocks!They are all long term games!"},{"id":6142263,"gmtCreate":1633769085002,"gmtModify":1633769085002,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821821192,"type":1,"supId":6142223,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks 👍😊","text":"Thanks 👍😊","html":"Thanks 👍😊"},{"id":6142223,"gmtCreate":1633768695826,"gmtModify":1633768695826,"authorId":3479274725915373,"author":{"id":3479274725915373,"authorId":3479274725915373,"name":"fishinglo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture56","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821821192,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Indeed, the stocks of large companies are very stable","text":"Indeed, the stocks of large companies are very stable","html":"Indeed, the stocks of large companies are very stable"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821829852,"gmtCreate":1633733297005,"gmtModify":1633733297181,"author":{"id":"3565832091209909","authorId":"3565832091209909","name":"HuatKueh313","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fbe827eb784eecc8d7e3bf6018cb01","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821829852","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136402,"gmtCreate":1633733305266,"gmtModify":1634718356903,"authorId":3565832091209909,"author":{"id":3565832091209909,"authorId":3565832091209909,"name":"HuatKueh313","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fbe827eb784eecc8d7e3bf6018cb01","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821829852,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>huat</u>","text":"<u>huat</u>","html":"<u>huat</u>"},{"id":6136548,"gmtCreate":1633734398041,"gmtModify":1634718345524,"authorId":3571813255314396,"author":{"id":3571813255314396,"authorId":3571813255314396,"name":"2e480c32","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821829852,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"},{"id":6136597,"gmtCreate":1633734677786,"gmtModify":1634718341268,"authorId":4087513826666000,"author":{"id":4087513826666000,"authorId":4087513826666000,"name":"evauoz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/280532533b0476328d845887d7308f4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821829852,"type":1,"supId":6136548,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>liked</u>","text":"<u>liked</u>","html":"<u>liked</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821829017,"gmtCreate":1633733274265,"gmtModify":1633733274571,"author":{"id":"3582861990340625","authorId":"3582861990340625","name":"DoreamonGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d4f385b944dff84d0471865dd8be34","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821829017","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136399,"gmtCreate":1633733282465,"gmtModify":1634718357232,"authorId":3582861990340625,"author":{"id":3582861990340625,"authorId":3582861990340625,"name":"DoreamonGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d4f385b944dff84d0471865dd8be34","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821829017,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821820672,"gmtCreate":1633733222360,"gmtModify":1633733224193,"author":{"id":"3571345352614779","authorId":"3571345352614779","name":"小白添祥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"like &amp; comment please, thank you very much&nbsp;","listText":"like &amp; comment please, thank you very much&nbsp;","text":"like & comment please, thank you very much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821820672","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136403,"gmtCreate":1633733315248,"gmtModify":1634718356794,"authorId":3581761980405366,"author":{"id":3581761980405366,"authorId":3581761980405366,"name":"J288","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f139ffb0e1f3cec014732c0986adcded","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821820672,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"pls like back. Thanks","text":"pls like back. Thanks","html":"pls like back. Thanks"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821865048,"gmtCreate":1633732769237,"gmtModify":1633732769421,"author":{"id":"3582067983152427","authorId":"3582067983152427","name":"Joashua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6f4e525ab6ab8dd733a6c2aca77dbad","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821865048","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136394,"gmtCreate":1633733229101,"gmtModify":1634718357777,"authorId":3571345352614779,"author":{"id":3571345352614779,"authorId":3571345352614779,"name":"小白添祥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821865048,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like &amp; comment please, thank you very much ","text":"like &amp; comment please, thank you very much ","html":"like &amp; comment please, thank you very much "}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821861636,"gmtCreate":1633732323848,"gmtModify":1633732324186,"author":{"id":"3581507104335566","authorId":"3581507104335566","name":"Jl123456","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33617eb88bce300e61abe733e239b98","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"no good&nbsp;","listText":"no good&nbsp;","text":"no good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821861636","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6136302,"gmtCreate":1633732357521,"gmtModify":1634718365752,"authorId":3564142991914856,"author":{"id":3564142991914856,"authorId":3564142991914856,"name":"Jaymand","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ef74d005aec91c36d540483cb5d0f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821861636,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":6136395,"gmtCreate":1633733235201,"gmtModify":1634718357668,"authorId":3571345352614779,"author":{"id":3571345352614779,"authorId":3571345352614779,"name":"小白添祥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821861636,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like &amp; comment please, thank you very much ","text":"like &amp; comment please, thank you very much ","html":"like &amp; comment please, thank you very much "}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821817145,"gmtCreate":1633729214627,"gmtModify":1633729215110,"author":{"id":"3582359360248748","authorId":"3582359360248748","name":"ML808","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f601c68849ffbac8b7679f40f1471368","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Why market responded is very different from the past?&nbsp;","listText":"Why market responded is very different from the past?&nbsp;","text":"Why market responded is very different from the past?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821817145","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821813686,"gmtCreate":1633727714303,"gmtModify":1633727714549,"author":{"id":"3582681835792049","authorId":"3582681835792049","name":"Pplymm","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821813686","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>\n <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p>\n<p>And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p>\n<p>Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":315,"commentSize":43,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}