美团财报前瞻：监管趋紧令短期股价承压，看好长期前景_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美团财报前瞻：监管趋紧令短期股价承压，看好长期前景

美港电讯2021-08-30

美团将于8月30日（周一）公布Q2业绩，预期公司外卖业务及到店酒旅收入稳健，但利润会受到社区团购业务投资增加的影响。在监管趋严、社区团购竞争加剧下，市场将关注监管政策对数据平台所带来影响、以及美团旗下新业务未来数季营运策略、骑手相关社保费用等指引。美团过往季度财报公布后股价变动情况及原因投行预期：外卖业务改善社区团购致亏损扩大综合券商预测，美团上半年收入在776.02-807.61亿元...

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云里梦里飞
·2021-08-30
任务互评
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- 赞我的今年账户翻十倍:
  哇
  2021-08-30
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Moonchj
·2021-08-30
厉害
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AdelineLing
·2021-08-30
很好
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CalvinChong
·2021-08-30
不错
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- 云里梦里飞:
  [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
  2021-08-30
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Samchong
·2021-08-30
Good
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社区团购致亏损扩大\n综合券商预测，美团上半年收入在776.02-807.61亿元之间，同比升87.1%-94.8%。预计2021年上半年非GAAP经调整净亏损在66.29-86.92亿元之间，较2020年同期经调整净利润250.2亿元，同比扭盈转亏。不少投行都对美团新业务亏损作出预测：\n交银国际估计美团今年上半年非GAAP经调整净亏损85.35亿元，估计今年上半年新业务和其他经调整运营亏损184.26亿元(2020年同期为亏损28.24亿元)；料餐饮外卖业务经调整运营利润31.31亿元，同比升1.6倍，估计到店酒旅业务经调整运营利润61.44亿元，同比升1.39倍。单看第二季度，预计美团新业务和其他经调整运营亏损达103.82亿元(今年Q1为亏损80.44亿元)。\n摩根士丹利上月中报告预测，美团上半年净亏损非GAAP经调整净亏损86.33亿元，亏损净额较今年首季扩大，受累于社区团购投资及其他零售相关新业务，尤其是冷冻链基建投资。大摩指出，美团Q2外卖业务受惠于季节性因素，经调整经营溢利率料环比改善3.8个百分点9.2%。预测美团Q2新业务收入环比升6%至104亿元，该业务季度亏损较Q1的80亿元扩大至105亿元。\n市场也将关注美团旗下新业务未来数季营运策略指引。海通国际料美团今年Q2旗下新业务和其他营运亏损扩大至102亿元、料Q3及Q4营运亏损各为117.3亿元及164.22亿元，估计相关业务2021年至2023年营运亏损各为463.96亿、455.61亿及253.84亿元。\n虽然新业务会令短期盈利承压，但招银国际认为美团长期逻辑稳定。郑州洪水和近期新增疫情或短期影响Q3业绩，但不改长期内生增长逻辑。新业务投资将持续加大(如：夏季加强冷链建设)，但市场预期已反应。预测Q2新业务收入同比增长98%，经营亏损为108亿元，其中美团优选亏损78亿元。根据第三方数据和专家观点，尽管监管趋严、竞争加剧，但美团优选日均单量在Q2保持相对稳定（5月略降，但6月企稳回升），优于大盘(下降趋势)。\n机遇&风险\n不利因素\n市场已经开始讨论潜在的反垄断罚款所带来的财务影响，美团骑手的社会保险福利可能会增加，或会导致盈利摊薄，社区团购业务扩张放缓，公司可能无法维持过去几个季度用户的强劲增长，而且来自社区团购的长期潜在目标市场现在变得不那么清晰。\n利好因素\n虽然短期股价或因政策趋严承压，不少投行仍看好美团的长期增长潜力及高壁垒。同时，考虑到估值下行空间有限及潜在催化剂（反垄断罚款落地等），市场对反垄断罚款、二选一整改相应消化，且社保已部分纳入预测，逢低买入是个不错的策略。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":811991849,"gmtCreate":1630282207481,"gmtModify":1704957685885,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568431359478653","idStr":"3568431359478653"},"htmlText":"任务 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