股票解禁前夜，跟快手几位员工聊了聊：走，还是留？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

股票解禁前夜，跟快手几位员工聊了聊：走，还是留？

开柒2021-08-04

话说，最近好多互联网大厂都处于风口浪尖，股价震荡，员工们也都有些心有戚戚然。而其中，快手的童鞋们估计也是纠结的代表——眼看着禁售期马上结束了，但当前的快手股价却远不及预期。当然，快手的下跌也不是个例，大环境如此嘛。环顾互联网行业整体，从二级市场的反馈来看并不平静。7月27日，恒生指数下跌超过4%，互联网股集中的恒生科技指数大跌7.97%，创出该指数发布以来史上最大单日跌幅。八姐恰好有几个在...

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红楼秋雨
·2021-08-05
智障！
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5
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- 友谅投行:
  哈哈哈，还有个感叹号
  2021-08-05
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qkwdcyy2020
·2021-08-05
500亿美元还低了？50亿差不多了
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6
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niubikele
·2021-08-05
匹配更好的市值？凭啥呢？因为老铁卖货？
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4
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愿仗剑走天涯
·2021-08-05
快手不太可能做起来，这个公司终究是个过渡阶段的昙花一现。
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5
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xyzrb
·2021-08-05
快手真不值他的股价，50还差不多，80不能再多了。
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4
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- 朱时:
  打算49抄底呢
  2021-08-05
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早起的虫儿
·2021-08-05
小米涨回来是因为业务好了，快手看不到头的
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9
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- 我要吃大块肉:
  涨一点跌落三四倍 [喷血]
  2021-08-05
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糖卜甜
·2021-08-05
海外都要关闭了，你还嘟嘟嘟嘟嘟嘟的，🤣🤣
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2
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smallflash
·2021-08-05
长期也不看好亏损严重电商投入太高战线很长不是那么容易的
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一跌二苟三抄底
·2021-08-05
快别扯了。我认识20多个跳槽过去的从40到80不等的授予价，加起来怎么也有5000万人民币市值了。都是去快手赌上市的，解禁肯定抛售现在就是囚徒困境，谁傻谁不抛。而且吃着现金这么低打工几年，就等着股票呢，还捏手里呢
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- Tony0001:
  如果过几天股价翻倍，你还抛吗？最讨厌买空的人，都抛了，你赚的朋满钵满，还让跟着你的虎友，把内裤都赔了
  2021-08-06
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- 快乐的小五:
  快手也是命运多舛
  2021-08-06
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- 友谅投行:
  打几年工？快手就归零了
  2021-08-05
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查看更多 1 条评论
图拉夫
·2021-08-05
快手现在这个情况还是先别碰比较好。
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2
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小脑斧大王
·2021-08-05
此文一发必然是要大跌了，软文！心里有鬼
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6
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柠七007
·2021-08-05
600亿市值是合理的，考虑和字节的营收差距、增速差距都在拉大，股价会承压。再加上国家整治互联网、知识产权等，估计短期还要跌不少，不差钱的就留着，过去风暴肯定涨
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1
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songambition
·2021-08-05
走
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点赞
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Li_Zonghao
·2021-08-04
实在是有意思
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点赞
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Ngungu
·2021-08-04
走
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2
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MINH
·2021-08-04
走
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4
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- LNM888:
  Ok
  2021-08-04
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Doubleli
·2021-08-04
走
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3
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stay?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66b3f580a1646cf9dd4de2b8d5cbd7df","symbols_score_info":{"01024":0.9},"content_text":"话说，最近好多互联网大厂都处于风口浪尖，股价震荡，员工们也都有些心有戚戚然。而其中，快手的童鞋们估计也是纠结的代表——眼看着禁售期马上结束了，但当前的快手股价却远不及预期。\n当然，快手的下跌也不是个例，大环境如此嘛。环顾互联网行业整体，从二级市场的反馈来看并不平静。7月27日，恒生指数下跌超过4%，互联网股集中的恒生科技指数大跌7.97%，创出该指数发布以来史上最大单日跌幅。\n\n八姐恰好有几个在快手的盆友，俺也趁机安慰了一下他们。有的快手盆友说，说不郁闷是假的。毕竟，在业务基本面稳定的情况下，总觉得快手应该匹配更好的市值，万万没想到市场的降温来得这么快。\n不过，几乎八姐询问的所有童鞋都说，他们并不着急卖股票，毕竟，现在快手的股价低得超过了他们心理预期，基于对公司中长期发展的预判，可以再等等。\n当然，也有快手的盆友过来纠结的问八姐：你说，公司股价不会一路再向下吧？八姐也不是神仙，不过，俺觉得吧，正常来说，所有的美股和港股上市公司都会有“解禁低迷期”，也就是说，在180天的解禁前后，会出现股价的低迷，甚至这种低迷会持续到解禁后的半年。但只要公司基本面向好，长期来看，公司股价仍有上涨空间。\n\n以同样在港股上市的小米为例，小米是2018年7月9日上市的，当时发行价18港元，而到了半年后的解禁日，小米股价创下上市以来新低，以11.1港元收盘，解禁次日，盘中触及上市以来股价最低点9.44港币。甚至，在随后的整个2019年一整年，股价继续低迷。八姐记得，当时俺跟小米的童鞋吃饭，一大揶揄的话题就是，你看看，你拼死拼活的好几年996，拿到的股票还不够在北五环买个房子的。\n但小米在去年开始了猛涨，一度较发行价涨了一倍多，即便近期股价调整后，也较发行价高出50%。所以，八姐觉得，不要郁闷，只要拿得住股票，做价值投资，没准哪天你又赚大了。\n\n（小米股价走势图）\n而且就快手的员工股票而言，参照IPO时的招股书信息来看（除高管外的普通员工）约有7015名普通员工，获得4.23亿股购股权，平均下来每人约可获得6万股的回报，即便是按照现在的股价，那平均每人也是超过500万元。考虑到归属时间、离职等因素导致的未完全归属情形，解禁后并不意味着这些股票马上就能变现，但长期来看，仍是一笔比较可观的回报。所以，别着急。\n从外界对快手二季度的业绩预期来看，当前快手处在用户增长淡季，  营销费用预计仍会维持在较高水平。但与此同时，八姐觉得，还应当拉长时间线向后看。\n比如，在用户增长方面，快手二季度活跃用户增长放缓可能与一季度春节拉新增长高强相关，但在第三季度，快手在奥运方面的投入可能令其获得更多的新增用户。\n\n再比如，快手的电商、广告业务发展的巨大增长潜力。投行杰富瑞（Jeffries）就在研报中指出，从长期发展来看，公域的扩容十分关键。受益于线上营销及电商业务的强劲增长动力，预计快手二季度总收入同比将增长44%至186亿元人民币。今年一季度，快手财报数据显示，线上营销服务收入为86亿元，对总收入的贡献占比首次超过50%。这一趋势有望在二季度延续。\n另外，快手的海外增长也值得关注，尽管快手在海外部分的投入，被不少分析者认为令快手亏损扩大，但在对快手整体价值进行预估的时候，不少人却忽略了海外的成长空间。中金等机构分析认为，当前海外短视频渗透率不及国内，面临相对宽松的竞争环境，快手将因地制宜，通过特定内容矩阵吸引目标用户，并基于内容实现“破圈”。\n总之，八姐觉得吧，解禁后怎么处理股票，既要对现实回报进行考量，也要个人对公司发展趋势做出预判。\n不久前，QM刚刚发布了半年报告，截止2021年6月，短视频APP行业月活跃用户规模排名中，抖音、快手、快手极速版、抖音极速版分别占据前四。在一个非“赢家通吃”的竞争市场，快手的机会还是很大的。\n受到市场传言等各种因素影响，快手当前的市值仅为580亿美元上下，八姐认为，这个价格真心不算高啊。对于快手的童鞋来说，说不定一年后再来看，把股票留着才是一个正确的决定。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":899025054,"gmtCreate":1628144451078,"gmtModify":1628144451078,"author":{"id":"3570616634579231","authorId":"3570616634579231","name":"红楼秋雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f466da855caf32d0b4fb9b240535b5e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570616634579231","authorIdStr":"3570616634579231"},"htmlText":"智障！","listText":"智障！","text":"智障！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899025054","repostId":1189214910,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435875,"gmtCreate":1628162690270,"gmtModify":1628162690270,"authorId":3557008405269629,"author":{"id":3557008405269629,"idStr":"3557008405269629","authorId":3557008405269629,"name":"友谅投行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee45f8e6b08c07c4b25e4dcfd8131709","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899025054,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"哈哈哈，还有个感叹号","text":"哈哈哈，还有个感叹号","html":"哈哈哈，还有个感叹号"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":899064484,"gmtCreate":1628143759148,"gmtModify":1628143759148,"author":{"id":"3570761678462259","authorId":"3570761678462259","name":"qkwdcyy2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45201f6182b0d94257b5a3a91e9c34db","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570761678462259","authorIdStr":"3570761678462259"},"htmlText":"500亿美元还低了？50亿差不多了","listText":"500亿美元还低了？50亿差不多了","text":"500亿美元还低了？50亿差不多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899064484","repostId":1189214910,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":899080201,"gmtCreate":1628142267403,"gmtModify":1628142267403,"author":{"id":"3492670886328492","authorId":"3492670886328492","name":"niubikele","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd736aeb5a5b7663de30873c38e87758","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02aa29c2dc9ef542378534f87cda3558","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3492670886328492","authorIdStr":"3492670886328492"},"htmlText":"匹配更好的市值？凭啥呢？因为老铁卖货？","listText":"匹配更好的市值？凭啥呢？因为老铁卖货？","text":"匹配更好的市值？凭啥呢？因为老铁卖货？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899080201","repostId":1189214910,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":899034454,"gmtCreate":1628141401578,"gmtModify":1628141401578,"author":{"id":"3504005467262804","authorId":"3504005467262804","name":"愿仗剑走天涯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955252145e76f8af604658ce25b7a84a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3504005467262804","authorIdStr"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