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中概股的未来

全球宏观投机2021-08-22

什么是全球宏观视角全球宏观作为一种富有特色的投资和交易类别，侧重从全球以及各国经济周期、金融条件和地缘政治的视角寻求中期的大型资产价格运动机会，这个价格变动方向，可以向上，也可以向下。全球宏观思路用于资产配置，最典型的是斯文森时代的耶鲁捐赠基金；而用于更加灵活多变的交易，最典型的是德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯共同管理时代的量子基金。金融危机以后，全球宏观交易方式受到很大的质疑，原因在于这种风格的基金...

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201

大池子
·2021-08-23
十月的会议，看两方lingdao表现了
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大池子
·2021-08-23
十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了
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大池子
·2021-08-23
十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了
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大池子
·2021-08-23
十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了
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大池子
·2021-08-23
十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了
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云里梦里飞
·2021-08-23
任务互评
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1
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Youn7276
·2021-08-23
阅！
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19
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- Jamesncm:
  👍🏻
  2021-08-23
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- KaelynGoMoon:
  Haha
  2021-08-23
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- TSLA玻璃手:
  [Grin]
  2021-08-23
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KhooB
·2021-08-23
完了吧，如无意外
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3
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- KhooB:
  镰刀揮動了
  2021-08-30
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- KhooB:
  中概股反弹
  2021-08-26
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T20211211017
·2021-08-22
关注
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3
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HC1979
·2021-08-22
[财迷]
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4
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- T20211211017:
  关注
  2021-08-22
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- PuaTongSeng:
  @TAMSOHTING [龇牙]
  2021-08-22
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反卡
·2021-08-22
中概股没有未来
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6
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- 反卡:
  哈哈
  2021-08-22
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- 云里梦里飞:
  哈哈舍不得
  2021-08-23
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安妮1022
·2021-08-22
👍
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3
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adam888888
·2021-08-22
厉害👍🏻
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4
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韭菜也能变镰刀加油
·2021-08-22
[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
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2
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mengseng
·2021-08-22
好文章👍👍👍
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3
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- Paulyang:
  好
  2021-08-22
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华美虎
·2021-08-22
三年内协商一个妥协的解决方案即可。
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2
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- 无知的自己:
  什么
  2021-08-22
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R168
·2021-08-22
[微笑]
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2
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- R168:
  [开心]
  2021-08-22
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- R168:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-24
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- R168:
  [得意]
  2021-08-25
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查看更多 2 条评论
123x13
·2021-08-22
不碰中钙，就已经跑赢了至少90%的人。做中钙，还自诩是抄底，你以为你会是那1%的侥幸的赢家，事实是你是在冒着99%亏钱的概率，几乎就是必输的游戏，赌博都比这强！$腾讯控股(00700)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$$美团-W(03690)$$京东集团-SW(09618)$$百度(BIDU)$
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烦烦躁躁
·2021-08-22
中美关系是基础变量？哈哈
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1
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- 53570b80:
  [笑哭]
  2021-08-22
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- 烦烦躁躁:
  十个美国也没法和一个政策相比
  2021-08-22
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- Jet2017:
  还是要看美国的脸色
  2021-08-22
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飞翔的企鹅_5304
·2021-08-22
永远的稳中向好，永远的3500
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4
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- kimxuan:
  好
  2021-08-22
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0zufFWNGXYzP0f-XCuVHMg><strong>全球宏观投机</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>什么是全球宏观视角\n全球宏观作为一种富有特色的投资和交易类别，侧重从全球以及各国经济周期、金融条件和地缘政治的视角寻求中期的大型资产价格运动机会，这个价格变动方向，可以向上，也可以向下。全球宏观思路用于资产配置，最典型的是斯文森时代的耶鲁捐赠基金；而用于更加灵活多变的交易，最典型的是德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯共同管理时代的量子基金。\n金融危机以后，全球宏观交易方式受到很大的质疑，原因在于这种风格的基金...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0zufFWNGXYzP0f-XCuVHMg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"QNETCN","symbol_name":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0zufFWNGXYzP0f-XCuVHMg","article_id":"1182861188","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc9de4d397ebba7835e00e3691884586"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182861188","pubTimestamp":1629595474,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"qqggdh","name":"全球宏观投机"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值。中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"The future of China Stocks","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91028ea91f0bce6e0aa7988bc08398c0","symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9},"content_text":"什么是全球宏观视角\n全球宏观作为一种富有特色的投资和交易类别，侧重从全球以及各国经济周期、金融条件和地缘政治的视角寻求中期的大型资产价格运动机会，这个价格变动方向，可以向上，也可以向下。全球宏观思路用于资产配置，最典型的是斯文森时代的耶鲁捐赠基金；而用于更加灵活多变的交易，最典型的是德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯共同管理时代的量子基金。\n金融危机以后，全球宏观交易方式受到很大的质疑，原因在于这种风格的基金近些年的表现不如人意。图一   宏观对冲基金表现不佳\n中概股的独特宏观因子\n我们把实际影响资产价格的投资者大脑中的偏见称之为宏观因子，或者价格驱动因素。略有经验的投资者都知道，影响资产价格的因素非常多，很多都是微观或者产业因素。我们命名为宏观，并不是说一定是宏观经济数据或者事件才会影响价格，而是泛指各种持续长期对价格产生真实影响的变量。比如，有人研究了北京雾霾对投资者情绪的影响，雾霾天投资者情绪总体偏低，更容易卖出而不是买进。但是这并不是我们所讲的宏观因子，因为它对资产价格的影响不是持续有效的。但是，公司盈利增速预期就是影响股票价格的宏观因子，因为几乎在任何时候，这个变量都会影响投资者对股票和市场的感知，从而促使投资者做出买卖行为。\n那么，影响中概股的宏观因子有哪些呢？\n首先考察中国经济周期、金融条件与中概股的关系。我们发现，中概股与中国经济周期关联之紧密，完全不亚于A50股票指数，而在市场表现方面，中概股与A50的相关性也略强。图二 中国经济基本面与中概股指数图三 中概股、A50与创业板\n我中概股与大股票相关性更强，说明这些公司与经济周期的关联度更高，同时，投资者对股票的评估很大程度上面依赖于经济前景的判断。\n其二、我们考察中概股与纳斯达克指数的关系。平均看，过去五年，中概股与纳指的线性相关系数达到了0.7，而最近的相关系数下降到0.44。中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值\n其三、中概股目前大跌的原因是什么？\n显然是中国最近出台的一系列监管政策，使得市场的不确定性大增。中概股这个特征跟A股完全类似，对经济政策、监管政策的变化非常敏感。但是，中概股这次大跌多了一层额外的不确定性：中美关系严重影响中概股的表现，从而成为一个真正长期影响价格的宏观因子。\n从这个角度讲，中概股未来充满颠簸，因为地缘政治的不确定性是最坏的不确定性，很难事先规划，一旦发生，市场波动的速度极快，同时，不确定性发展过程也非常曲折，比如今晚中国证监会表达对金融市场以及稳定资本市场预期的善意，这个时候市场就会猛烈的反弹。通常很难评估不确定性发展的阶段以及何时确认结束。\n那么当下的不确定性消失了吗？短期市场的紧张情绪应该得到了缓和，可能支持中概股有一波反弹，但是就中长期来看，中美两国的监管政策、地缘政治的变化，已经成为了中概股投资的一个基本影响变量。\n中概股的未来\n中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。这是比尔黄押注这些股票的主要理由，比如腾讯音乐，中国的音乐付费市场才刚刚启动，还有无数消费场景可以引入付费音乐。但这的确是一个长期充满曲折的过程。从这个角度讲，中概股依然有一些非常优秀的上市公司，其中必然有一些在未来成为伟大的公司，其股票也会创造极大的增值。\n然而，中概股面临两个巨大的挑战：一是中国经济政策的冲击，这种冲击在最近开始变得频繁，二是地缘政治的冲击。资本市场会成为中美角逐的一个战场，而中概股会成为其中的受害者，从专业的术语讲：中概股未来的不确定性已经放大，带来的结果就是估值偏低。而与其类似的是港股，港股是世界上估值最低的市场，因为港股面临独特的不确定性环境：中美两国的经济、金融、政策和地缘政治都可以随时和大幅影响港股。\n一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。\n比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。对资本市场而言，长期我们都已经死了，所以不需要去讨论长期的问题。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":835924154,"gmtCreate":1629684777678,"gmtModify":1629684777678,"author":{"id":"3452502151944581","authorId":"3452502151944581","name":"大池子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0e75a8a9d24196498787ef1a4ef266","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3452502151944581","authorIdStr":"3452502151944581"},"htmlText":"十月的会议，看两方lingdao表现了","listText":"十月的会议，看两方lingdao表现了","text":"十月的会议，看两方lingdao表现了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835924154","repostId":1182861188,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":835924085,"gmtCreate":1629684756547,"gmtModify":1629684756547,"author":{"id":"3452502151944581","authorId":"3452502151944581","name":"大池子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0e75a8a9d24196498787ef1a4ef266","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3452502151944581","authorIdStr":"3452502151944581"},"htmlText":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","listText":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","text":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835924085","repostId":1182861188,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":835922669,"gmtCreate":1629684720251,"gmtModify":1629684720251,"author":{"id":"3452502151944581","authorId":"3452502151944581","name":"大池子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0e75a8a9d24196498787ef1a4ef266","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3452502151944581","authorIdStr":"3452502151944581"},"htmlText":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","listText":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","text":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835922669","repostId":1182861188,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":835926212,"gmtCreate":1629684695236,"gmtModify":1629684695236,"author":{"id":"3452502151944581","authorId":"3452502151944581","name":"大池子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0e75a8a9d24196498787ef1a4ef266","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3452502151944581","authorIdStr":"3452502151944581"},"htmlText":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","listText":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","text":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835926212","repostId":1182861188,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":835926198,"gmtCreate":1629684682914,"gmtModify":1629684682914,"author":{"id":"3452502151944581","authorId":"3452502151944581","name":"大池子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0e75a8a9d24196498787ef1a4ef266","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3452502151944581","authorIdStr":"3452502151944581"},"htmlText":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","listText":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","text":"十月的会议，看两方领导人表现了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835926198","repostId":1182861188,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":832427113,"gmtCreate":1629675987932,"gmtModify":1633683448285,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"i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