全球最大原油ETF被空头逼到停牌，现在抄底靠谱吗？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

全球最大原油ETF被空头逼到停牌，现在抄底靠谱吗？

华尔街见闻2020-04-21

导读：从本质上来说，当前的原油市场失去了弹性，负价格的出现跟教科书上“奶农倒掉牛奶”的故事没什么区别。昨天，WTI原油5月合约史无前例地创下了-43美元的价格。如果说5月多头合约是被交割期所逼迫，那么今天6月合约又继续大跌，到底是什么原因。 01、海量资金来抄底，ETF成交量涨了4倍！从3月8日沙特和俄罗斯展开价格战以来，油价已经下跌了超过60%。在很多人看来，油价已经跌得非常多了，进场抄底...

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T_burning_隆
·2020-04-22
牛呀，原来是多头自己玩死自己
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  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-04-22
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岳老师
·2020-04-21
ETN退市忽悠韭菜抄底，现在ETF撑不住又来忽悠，呵呵😊
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联6G
·2020-04-21
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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浮萍本无根
·2020-04-21
👍
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-04-21
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亚洲股神买必赢
·2020-04-21
不是被空头逼停牌，是被多头逼停牌的，恢复后又是暴跌，mmp
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喵喵静
·2020-04-21
总结：便宜捡漏也是有钱人的事！穷人这辈子也别想！[笑哭] [笑哭]
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毛虫大战
·2020-04-21
大佬的资本游戏，观众一位。过客匆匆
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火烧云上飞
·2020-04-21
所以抄底靠谱吗？？
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- 人在美国已经嫖到失联:
  做日内的，赚了就立马跑，别在里面停留超过1天 [贱笑]
  2020-04-21
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- 毛虫大战:
  不怕死就往里冲
  2020-04-21
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Is it reliable to make a bottom now?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8428bf3decfc573e53f91892fe72c96","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"导读：从本质上来说，当前的原油市场失去了弹性，负价格的出现跟教科书上“奶农倒掉牛奶”的故事没什么区别。\n昨天，WTI原油5月合约史无前例地创下了-43美元的价格。如果说5月多头合约是被交割期所逼迫，那么今天6月合约又继续大跌，到底是什么原因。\n01、 海量资金来抄底，ETF成交量涨了4倍！\n从3月8日沙特和俄罗斯展开价格战以来，油价已经下跌了超过60%。在很多人看来，油价已经跌得非常多了，进场抄底似乎是一个不错的选择。\n数据显示，截至4月17日，原油类ETF的成交量增长了接近4倍。受此影响，WTI的多头头寸也大幅上升。当然绝大部分参与者都是抱着“捡点便宜”心态的投机者。在这部分增量资金的促进下，WTI 5月合约的到目前的未平仓量达到了10.8万份，远远高于正常水平——过去五年的平均值才6万份。6月合约持仓量目前高达53.8万份。很显然，这部分投机者都不会选择持有合约到期，而是选择平仓展期。因为持有合约到期的话，就意味着选择接收原油现货——必须到美国俄克拉荷马州的库欣地区去收货。\n从交割机制来看，WTI交割必须通过库欣的管道或储油设备的FOB价格进行，也可以理解为买方交割的前提是得在库欣租借到足够的库容，这在目前来说是不现实的。\n即使买方租借到足够的库容，还得自备油桶。亚马逊上新油桶都要卖145美元，算算成本，普通交易者还是洗洗睡了……02、 USO，被挤兑到暂停交易\n在所有的原油ETF中，美国原油基金（USO）是最大的一家。\n由于近期油价持续大跌，大量的散户资金涌入USO抄底。昨天，WTI 5月合约创下负价格的这一天，又有5.65亿美元资金净流入，全天成交金额超过30亿美元。\n根据监管公告，该基金在过去六个交易日中已新增近22亿美元资金，规模几乎翻倍。\n由于WTI不是仓单交割，而是管道阀门点交货，因此需要买方负责找库。其实库欣的库容还有一些，只是这些多头没有能力去获取，所以被严重挤兑。\n其实这些多单如果是大公司持有，他们会很愿意在很低的价格收取现货，也不会出现负油价的。但现在多头大部分是一些ETF或个人投资者，要转月时需要卖出，而空头很了解这种情况，所以加大挤兑，市场被严重扭曲了。所以说本质上昨天的负油价就是一次金融事件。\n而已经将大部分头寸移到6月合约的USO，持有的仓位非常大，占到了6月合约的25.4%。而USO自身有82.7%的仓位都在6月合约上。\n意识到问题的严重性以后，USO今天紧急提交文件获得授权，将流通股增至40亿股，以应对流动性问题。\n不过在空头看来，USO是无论如何也不会持有合约到期，因此可以毫不犹豫地进行挤兑。六月合约今天的暴跌其实可以看做是空头的一次试探。市场上也有许多人担心USO没有能力应付当前的局面，如果六月合约再出现负价格，投资者必定是血本无归。\n\nUSO也在今日晚间宣布暂停交易，等待发布消息。\n唯一的好消息，可能是USO的移仓时间比较早，5月5号就开始移仓到7月合约，不至于在最后几天被挤兑。\n\n03、弹性丧失，油价负价格跟奶农倒牛奶是一样的故事\n这次油价出现负价格，背后根本原因是商品的价格弹性消失——关闭后再重启一口油井的成本很昂贵，因此一些生产商愿意暂时保持抽油，即使是亏本。\n以前，仓储通常是维持市场弹性的缓冲剂。如果供应超过需求，多余的油将进入储罐。但现在的问题是生产过剩已经持续了很长时间，以至于几乎没有地方可以储存原油。\n在缺乏弹性的市场中，价格可能会完全变为负数：卖方向买方付款以接受价格。\n比如发电厂有时会付钱给客户让他们使用电力，因为这比关闭发电厂再重新启动要更便宜。同样还有我们在教科书上看过的奶农倒掉牛奶的故事：不能杀掉牛，因为成本太高了。\n石油价格曾一度认为不可能为零或负数，因为它比牛奶、电力更容易储存。但其实早在三月中旬，怀俄明州的一种沥青酸的出价已经跌到了–19美分。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":922884162,"gmtCreate":1587494598756,"gmtModify":1704364505452,"author":{"id":"3550295990168590","authorId":"3550295990168590","name":"T_burning_隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accc7578c8a4b680e73fdb8146b1def3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550295990168590","authorIdStr":"3550295990168590"},"htmlText":"牛呀，原来是多头自己玩死自己","listText":"牛呀，原来是多头自己玩死自己","text":"牛呀，原来是多头自己玩死自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922884162","repostId":1180736541,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2365974,"gmtCreate":1587517989091,"gmtModify":1587517989091,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":922884162,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a 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