汇丰今天开了一个非常糟糕的头_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

汇丰今天开了一个非常糟糕的头

起朱楼宴宾客2020-04-01

今天早上六点钟，港股“狗股之王”汇丰控股突然发了一个公告，宣布将取消2019年四季度和2020年前三季度的派息，同时“承诺”今年将不进行任何的股票回购。按照汇丰自己的说法，这是应英国监管当局的要求做出的决定，目的是保留现金，应对新冠疫情带来的各种不确定性。事实上，跟它同时发布类似公告的还有同在港股上市的渣打集团，以及在英国上市的苏格兰皇家银行、巴克莱银行等英国所有大型商业银行。要知道，...

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璎珞美美哒
·2020-04-02
小李麻烦了
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疯狂的光头
·2020-04-02
英国乙烷
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马文刚
·2020-04-02
慢慢看吧！
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1
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A地主
·2020-04-02
小李麻烦了
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A地主
·2020-04-02
小李麻烦了
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小two
·2020-04-02
真的是火上浇油
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1
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圣地麦加
·2020-04-02
我还是那句话，关我什么事？我承受不了整个世界的利空。我是个右侧交易者。你们尽管闹，我看着。
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1
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夜静思小猪
·2020-04-01
值得推敲啊⊙∀⊙！
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稳如磐石
·2020-04-01
做空[贱笑] 英国股市
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qqzhang
·2020-04-01
等着看
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xuanshi
·2020-04-01
有危险
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收起
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-04-01
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做时间朋友
·2020-04-01
这是嗅到了暴跌的味道
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墨之
·2020-04-01
值得警惕
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today","themeId":"f9266d4d489f4396a34035394d1cf01f","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc70014d22aabb0689a5990fb5a25278","symbols_score_info":{"00005":0.9},"content_text":"今天早上六点钟，港股“狗股之王”汇丰控股突然发了一个公告，宣布将取消2019年四季度和2020年前三季度的派息，同时“承诺”今年将不进行任何的股票回购。\n按照汇丰自己的说法，这是应英国监管当局的要求做出的决定，目的是保留现金，应对新冠疫情带来的各种不确定性。\n事实上，跟它同时发布类似公告的还有同在港股上市的渣打集团，以及在英国上市的苏格兰皇家银行、巴克莱银行等英国所有大型商业银行。\n要知道，汇丰银行取消股息，这是连2008年金融危机都没有发生过的事情。而比这个更可怕的是，2019年四季度的这笔股息并不是刚刚公布的，事实上，目前交易的汇丰股价已经根据这次派息除过权了，只差4月14日的现金派发而已。此时突然取消，怕是连交易所都得慌作一团——如何把除过权的股价重新加回去？交易所的系统里真的有这个选项吗？\n说活久见，实不为过，而这个公告又发在愚人节当天，更给整个事件添上了一层魔幻的色彩。\n不过如果我们只是把汇丰停止派息当做是一个有趣的笑话，而将其股价今天跌了10%当做一个普通的跌停板，恐怕是低估了整件事情的影响。\n我担心的是，这只是下一个连锁反应的糟糕开头而已。\n1\n如果金融市场也有“天有异象”的说法，汇丰不派息肯定会是其中的一件。\n因为汇丰控股的派息重要性，是A股投资者完全无法想象的。\n我的一个香港朋友曾经在一篇旧文里这样描述过：\n“作为典型的香港人，狮子山精神的代表，和大部分老一辈一样，都有着“圣诞钟买汇丰”的习惯。\n汇丰银行是英国最大银行，同时也是香港最大的外资银行。对于香港市民而言，汇丰银行的意义除了存钱之外，还是一只每年必定派息的股票。\n过去多年以来，汇丰的派息占利润的比例长期高于60%。即使2016年因为英国脱欧和欧洲经济不稳定导致股价大跌，汇丰也维持了每股3.877港元的派息，股息率一度到达8%之多。\n自2012年开始，汇丰还把年底才发放股息分成四次派，换言之每个季度股民都“有钱落袋”。”\n——Colin Lam\n不只是香港居民，连中国平安当年在二级市场上买成汇丰的第一大股东时，给出的其中一条重要理由就是稳定而高额的派息。\n事实上，打开汇丰的派息明细，可以看出其每年至少拿出40%的净利润派息，多的年份甚至超过100%——换句话说，就算是拿出留存利润或者借钱，汇丰也不会停止派息。\n\n所以可以想象，这次汇丰不派息，而且一停就是一整年，而且是在还没有发生危机的情况下做出的决定，这有多么的不同寻常。\n2\n可能有人会说，这不是汇丰主动做出的选择啊，而是监管当局的要求。\n但是，这就更不寻常了。因为一国的监管机构，有什么理由要做出干涉上市企业进行派息这样非常正常的公司行为的举措呢？又不是08年那些找美联储请求援助的商业银行。\n我翻看了一下新闻，英国监管当局上一次有干涉银行派息的行为，是在2016年英国举行脱欧公投后一个月。那时英国央行为了应对经济下行压力，决定放松对银行的资本要求，但同时警告银行“不要以多出来的资金用于分红”。\n注意，第一，这只是一个警告，而不是一个行政指令；第二，这只是在说不要多分红，并没有要求银行不分红。\n那么这一次，英国的审慎监管局为何要做出如此强烈的监管举措呢？\n他们难道不知道这会导致银行股价下跌吗？肯定知道。\n有多少个人、保险机构和养老基金依靠股票分红来维持流动性呢？肯定不少。\n那么他们究竟是看到了什么样的数据，而且有着多么强的确定性，才会毅然决然的做出要求英国所有银行保留现金停止派息的决定的呢？\n细思恐极。\n3\n我并不是想危言耸听，也不是阴谋论，但就事论事而言，英国监管当局恐怕是嗅到了一丝金融市场上危险的气味。\n商业银行最怕的是什么？是挤兑，是流动性干涸。此时新冠病毒在欧美肆虐，一定会对银行正常的商业借贷造成巨大的影响，而对于银行赖以为生的居民存款而言，也一定会有非常多的提取需求。此时确保银行有足够的资本应对收入和存款同时下降的双重打击，避免流动性危机，恐怕是英国审慎监管局的第一要务。\n那么，为什么美国目前没有出台类似的举措呢？个人认为有两个原因。\n一是在经历了2008年的洗礼之后，美国商业银行现在的资产负债表比较健康，比起他们的欧洲同行而言，资本充足率维持在一个很高的位置。\n根据桥水的报告，目前美国银行不但有充足的资本，而且就算这次疫情和股市下跌造成了大量的企业损失，美国银行也足以应对的来。\n\n二是目前市场上发生的，或者说刚刚过去的，是一场关于美元的流动性危机。因此美联储作为美元的“制造机器”，已经构造了一大堆的工具确保商业银行的流动性充裕。\n说得再过分一点，美国监管当局现在和中国央妈愁的是同一件事情——那就是银行太过谨慎，不愿意把钱贷出去，不去“接济”那些摇摇欲坠的发债企业，导致企业发生流动性危机。\n而在大洋彼岸，欧洲政府们在操心的，却还是自己的银行系统会不会出现危机，根本无暇顾及银行会不会把钱贷出去这样的后续问题。\n从这个角度而言，在这场疫情之下，欧洲确实是比中美更加脆弱的一环。\n4\n最后说一说，为什么我认为汇丰今天开了一个非常糟糕的头。\n第一，停止派息的举措会让市场担心欧洲这些大银行的资本实力，担心英国监管当局看到了市场投资者看不到的东西。这种担心有可能会转化为实际行动，譬如在银行间市场停止或者缩减和欧洲银行的交易，最终导致墨菲定理说的——“监管当局担心会发生的挤兑事件最终真的会发生”。\n第二，停止派息有可能会引发连锁反应，导致保险机构、养老金的现金流紧张。当然我们现在还不知道有哪些机构投资者过分依赖于这些银行机构的派息来维持流动性，但考虑到仅仅汇丰一家每年就会发放接近100亿美元的股息，那么这个市场上一定会有资产因为这部分流动性的收缩而崩塌，而这又会导致怎样的连锁反应，是值得紧密关注的。\n第三，“当屋子里发现有一只蟑螂时，那么肯定不止这一只”。同理，需要担心资本充足率的也不会仅仅是英国的银行，欧洲大陆的银行现在如何？新兴市场的呢？要知道，疫情仍在发酵，经济的损伤已经不可避免，现在我们最不想看到的，就是负面影响蔓延到以信用作为根本的金融市场。\n作为一个悲观主义者，我衷心地希望到未来的某一天回头看，汇丰停止派息不会是打开了一个潘多拉的魔盒，或者成为下一个连锁反应的标志性事件。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":923141634,"gmtCreate":1585804597928,"gmtModify":1704359018417,"author":{"id":"3469631119491265","authorId":"3469631119491265","name":"璎珞美美哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340f52d117c43fcd9e1f649564e0a54a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3469631119491265","idStr":"3469631119491265"},"htmlText":"小李麻烦了","listText":"小李麻烦了","text":"小李麻烦了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923141634","repostId":1169573637,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":923188736,"gmtCreate":1585784645525,"gmtModify":1704358965275,"author":{"id":"3547438635850836","authorId":"3547438635850836","name":"疯狂的光头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ab3c5ec241e84981a37e9a41d3ca0df","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547438635850836","idStr":"3547438635850836"},"htmlText":"英国乙烷","listText":"英国乙烷","text":"英国乙烷","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923188736","repostId":1169573637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":923189561,"gmtCreate":1585781929153,"gmtModify":1704358961974,"author":{"id":"3548296406761281","authorId":"3548296406761281","name":"马文刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b84a7d42e7a8fce0f5401b0fa8d2e1a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3548296406761281","idStr":"3548296406761281"},"htmlText":"慢慢看吧！","listText":"慢慢看吧！","text":"慢慢看吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923189561","repostId":1169573637,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":923189022,"gmtCreate":1585781444166,"gmtModify":1704358960760,"author":{"id":"3525207698585723","authorId":"3525207698585723","name":"A地主","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3525207698585723","idStr":"3525207698585723"},"htmlText":"小李麻烦了","listText":"小李麻烦了","text":"小李麻烦了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923189022","repostId":1169573637,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":923180433,"gmtCreate":1585781407122,"gmtModify":1704358960067,"author":{"id":"3525207698585723","authorId":"3525207698585723","name":"A地主","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3525207698585723","idStr":"3525207698585723"},"htmlText":"小李麻烦了","listText":"小李麻烦了","text":"小李麻烦了","images":[],"top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