ARKK: Rationalizing Cathie Wood's Unflinching Commitment To Disruptive Technologies_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

ARKK: Rationalizing Cathie Wood's Unflinching Commitment To Disruptive Technologies

seekingalpha2021-11-19

Summary ARK Invest CEO/CIO Cathie Wood unveiled her updated perspective on Tesla, inflation, and disruptive technology in a recent interview with Barron's. We discuss the salient points from the ...

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koolgal
·2021-11-21
Investors have climbed the wall of worry for now over inflation as consumer spending is definitely up! The market stock indexes are up! Cathie Wood has always said that an investor needs a minimum time frame of 4 years when investing in her ARKK funds to really see the returns. Well Cathie, I certainly like your unflinching commitment to disruptive technologies. Go Cathie, Go ARKK! 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙
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- koolgal:
  Thanks
  2021-11-22
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- 小蔡萌萌哒:
  good
  2021-11-22
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- koolgal:
  Thanks
  2021-11-22
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Roticanai
·2021-11-20
Buy
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- gl8089:
  agree
  2021-11-20
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Barbarazhao
·2021-11-20
Good to read
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galvinpangg
·2021-11-20
This year, Cathie Wood has been nothing but disappointing. I am worried if she’s making the rightdecision.
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tradelaggard
·2021-11-20
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Alannjy
·2021-11-19
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- jovrene:
  like
  2021-11-19
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Nkj
·2021-11-19
Hmmm
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- Alannjy:
  Like
  2021-11-19
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sc0tchb0nn3t
·2021-11-19
👍🏽 food for thought. Definitely adding ARKKto my watchlist.
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- ZEROHERO:
  Hold long term 😉
  2021-11-20
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- sc0tchb0nn3t:
  LT?
  2021-11-19
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- sc0tchb0nn3t:
  LT?
  2021-11-19
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SFern
·2021-11-19
Good
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- SFern:
  Lol
  2021-11-19
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Melodykjh
·2021-11-19
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- HueiKwang:
  Liked
  2021-11-19
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terryvstitch
·2021-11-19
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- JiaLe:
  Ok
  2021-11-19
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Christiu
·2021-11-19
Wow nice!
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- Melodykjh:
  Like
  2021-11-19
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- jazzspeed:
  yes very nice
  2021-11-19
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Its YTD return of -6.2% significantly underperformed the broad market in 2021. SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY)and Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ)returned 25.2% and 26.7% YTD, respectively.\nBut ARK Invest's CEO/CIO Cathie Wood is not worried. In a recent interview with Barron's, Wood laid out her thoughts behind ARKK's underperformance in 2021. She emphasized she was not surprised to observe that the rally has \"broadened out beyond disruptive growth stocks.\" Investors may find it helpful to recall that ARKK had a blockbuster year in 2020. It significantly outperformed the market as it notched a gain of 148.3%. In contrast, the SPY and QQQ posted gains of 16% and 46.5%, respectively. Wood emphasized:\n\nThe market today has actually broadened out. Last year, growth stocks, especially those associated with innovation like our strategies, they were on fire. We could do nothing wrong. And we didn't think that was going to be a very healthy Market if it continued to narrow. Instead, what happened is this year? The market has broadened out. And so value stocks, cyclical, stocks, even defensive stocks have done quite well. (from Barron's interview)\n\nWe discuss Cathie's most updated perspective behind disruptive technologies relating to her flagship fund. We also discuss whether it would be an appropriate time to add exposure to ARKK.\nARK Doesn't Think Inflation will be Sustained\nQQQ price action (weekly chart).\nUS 10Y yield price action. (weekly chart).\nWood accentuated that she disagrees with the general market's view that inflation will be sustained. She pointed out that the broad market continues to advance even as the bond yield (as seen through the above US 10Y yield chart) continues to go up. Wood highlighted (edited for clarity and brevity):\n\n So what I think is going on is the\n market is climbing a massive wall of worry. Inflation will not be sustained. In fact, it's going to unwind pretty quickly...If you look at the bond market, even we had a doubling in bond yields [in] the first quarter [of 2021]. The market was up, despite that \"heart attack\" in the bond market. That was a loud signal to us that we are in a very strong bull market, and as long as we don't fall into a recession, we're probably going to be fine. (from Barron's interview)\n\nXLE Vs. XLF Vs. SPY ETF YTD performance (as of 17 November 21).\nWood added that the market is getting heady with its view on inflation because of the rally in financial and energy stocks in 2021. Readers can quickly glean the outperformance from the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF(NYSEARCA:XLE)and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF(NYSEARCA:XLF). Both ETFs delivered YYD gains of 51% and 34.5%, respectively. In contrast, the SPY only gained 25.2%.\nConsequently, she articulated this has led to many investors thinking that the threat of inflation is more persistent than we think. Wood added (edited for clarity and brevity):\n\n Inflation usually benefits value stocks, [and] financial stocks because interest rates go up more on the long end of the yield curve. So financials have done very well this year. Energy year to date is up more than 50%, [and] financials roughly 35%. Both of those benefit from higher inflation. And so that just tells me that many people in the stock market, do believe that inflation is going to be sustained. We do not. (from Barron's interview)\n\nIron ore futures. Source: Caixin, Bloomberg, Singapore Exchange, Dalian Exchange\nOn Tesla's EV Lead and Autonomous Vehicle Advantage\nARK Invest made headlines recently as it continued torotate Tesla stock from its holdings into other stocks as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) stock continued its upward climb. Nonetheless, Tesla stock remains ARKK's largest holding as it accounted for 10.18% of its portfolio (as of 17 November 21).\nSome investors questioned whether it meant that the star-studded fund manager was losing her conviction in Elon Musk & Co. Interestingly, Wood shared that it's simply part of her portfolio rebalancing strategy. She would use the opportunities to rotate stocks that have moved well ahead of their peers in the portfolio. She added (edited for brevity and clarity):\n\n We are usually selling when let's say for whatever reason one of our stocks, even our high conviction stocks have gone up say 20, 30, 40 percent relative to the rest of the stocks in our portfolio.\n It's just called portfolio management. Take some profits and deploy them into stocks that have been neglected or punished for some reason. So, [we sell] when others are really excited about buying them. Whether it's speculators or hedge funds or other investors [who are] negative on a stock and we think it's misunderstood. (from Barron's interview)\n\nHence, ARKK investors should rest assured that Wood has no intentions of abandoning her $3,000 price target (PT) on Tesla stock. On the contrary, her confidence in her price target has gotten a boost over Tesla's progress in autonomous driving.\nNow, before we go into that, we would like to emphasize to new investors/readers that her $3K PT (by 2025) on Tesla stock does not seem absurd. Especially, if you compared it against ARK's previous PT. Currently, the stock is trading less than $1,100 after the recent momentum spike subsided. However, when ARK communicated its previous pre-split $4,000 PT (by 2023) on TSLA stock back in 2018, it was even more contentious. Back then, TSLA stock was trading at just $300. The company was also facing a host of problems with manufacturing and quality control problems. Elon Musk was even said to have reached out to Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)CEO Tim Cook about being acquired (althoughCook did not confirm).\nWe all know Tesla took out that PT earlier this year (two years ahead of ARK's 2018 forecasts), and the rest is history. Therefore, we believe that due credit must be given to Wood & Co. when credit is due. They nailed out a PT in 2018 that no Tesla bears, including other institutional managers, could hardly even imagine back then. It shows that ARK Invest is the foremost authority for understanding disruptive technology that some Street analysts do not understand well. Wood emphasized (edited for clarity and brevity): \"Whereas in the traditional financial world, most analysts don't even consider Tesla when they consider autonomous [technology] because they don't have a cruise(NYSE:GM)unit or they don't have a Waymo(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)unit. So it's a very interesting dynamic because we've got the wrong kinds of analysts following these stocks. They should be technology analysts.\"\nARK believes that recent progress in Tesla's autonomous vehicle (AV) technology demonstrates that the company is moving ahead well. ARK has often maintained that it believes that Tesla has a 50% chance of success in its AV efforts. Tesla's AV success is fundamental to ARK's thesis as it underpins Tesla autonomous ride-hail fleet (Robotaxi) revenue segment. Wood believes that Tesla's automotive gross margins (ex-credits) could go up to 60% following a successful AV production ramp. Tesla's most recent automotive gross margin (ex-credits) has improved to 28.8% in FQ3'21. Therefore, the potential for margin leverage is massive if Tesla can successfully commercialize its AV technology. ARK believes that Tesla would get there ahead of the rest. Wood emphasized (edited for clarity and brevity):\n\nWe believe that Tesla's decision to design its own artificial intelligence chip was the real breakthrough here. Now, they have been collecting billions and billions of miles of data. And what we're really interested in are the corner cases. Now, the pilot test for full self-driving (FSD), Tesla's pilot test has just started... Whatwe've learned so far from them is that when it works, it's a dream, it's unbelievable. And when it doesn't work, it's terrifying and [a] near-death experience. And so these drivers are guiding Tesla. They hit a button and that film video goes back to Tesla so they can learn from their mistakes. So, we've got passionate users of Tesla's vehicles out there, helping them with [its] autonomous effort and we do believe that they will perfect it over time. (from Barron's interview)\n\nTesla unveiled its AI training chip at its recent AI day in August. Of course, investors, including us, also were humored by Tesla's humanoid robot that took center stage. While some investors questioned Tesla's chip expertise, it was confident that its advanced chip could accelerate its AV ambitions. Tesla CEO Elon Musk emphasized: \"If it takes a couple of days for a model to train versus a couple of hours, it's a big deal.\"\nTesla bulls were thrilled with the company's chip expertise. It demonstrates that Tesla is way ahead of its AV peers and the legacy automakers regarding autonomous driving. Tesla bulls believe that the company is a full-stack disruptive technology company than simply an automaker. Cathie Wood highlighted that Tesla sees its car as a robot. They don't view it as merely a car. She emphasized (edited for clarity and brevity):\n\n Tesla really is taking a leaf from Apple's book. [Why did] Apple leave Nokia, Motorola, and Erickson in the dust. This was their market to lose. Did they define the market incorrectly? They didn't understand that these were going to be computers in our pockets and that we would be able to access the internet.\n We think Tesla has done the same thing with an AI chip. That this is not just a car. In fact, it's not a car at all. It's a robotassociated with sensors and battery technology and software-as-a-service. So it's really a technology machine. (from Barron's interview)\n\nWe think so too. Our confidence in Tesla improved significantly in FQ3. It lifted our conviction to remain vested in TSLA stock. Why? If readers can recall, many automakers reported a very weak FQ3. They were significantly hampered due to the chip supply bottlenecks. It didn't just affect a few automakers. The impact was global. But, what did Tesla report? They reported a remarkable FQ3 with a record delivery growth cadence.\nEven Volkswagen AG(OTCPK:VWAGY)Chairman Herbert Diess also applauded Tesla for its achievements in production. Moreover, it showed that Tesla's advances and technological capability in software have often been misunderstood and understated. Diess emphasized:\n\nOne example for the speed of Tesla: They handle the chip shortage very well– the reason: they are developing their own software. Within just 2-3 weeks they had a new software which allows to use different chips. Impressive. (from Herbert Diess LinkedIn post)\n\nFord(NYSE:F)also couldn't resist praising Tesla in its internal meeting. Ford CEO Jim Farley emphasized (edited for brevity):\n\nTesla maximizes use of electrons in the vehicle. No one does it better than they do.Their customers pay less for a better battery. Their focus … after they launch the vehicle,\n their obsessionafter the launch of the vehicle, to make the customer experience better, to re-engineer the electronic components, to simplify, to address quality based on data coming off the vehicles, to reduce the bill of material based on how people actually use the vehicle, to drive vertical integration, so they do\n moreand they solve the hardest problems at Tesla. And they manage every electron so they can be as efficient as possible with the expense of battery...\n The product itself is highly differentiated from the rest of the ICE field and complexity is tiny, compared to OEMs. That allows them to have enormous reuse.\n Reuse that we’ve never seen in our ICE business. Tesla can scale quickly because of that complexity reduction. They can drive cost down, which they have. They can keep processes simple. (from Electrek article)\n\nTherefore, Tesla has demonstrated its incredible capability as a disruptive technology company. Musk & Co. continues to let their execution do the talking even as Tesla bears still refuse to acknowledge Tesla and its stock's prowess, which is up 1,437% over the last three years. It's simply unbelievable how these bears from 2018 can continue to hold their thesis without making a fool of themselves.\nSo, is ARKK ETF a Buy?\nWe believe that Cathie Wood & Co. have demonstrated their tremendous understanding of disruptive technology companies that many on the Street fail to grasp well. These are companies at the early stages of their market opportunity, and thus, the validity of their thesis is often contentious. It takes a massive amount of deep research that we believe is beyond the scope of most retail investors. As ARK Invest's flagship ETF, we believe ARKK continues to be highly relevant for investors who want to have exposure to disruptive technology companies. It allows them to diversify their portfolio with disruptive stocks. Cathie Wood also has demonstrated her portfolio rebalancing discipline, making sure to lock in profits and rotating to beaten-down stocks.\nInvestors are encouraged to have a long-term mindset when investing in disruptive stocks, as their thesis plays out over time. Therefore, wereiterate our Buy rating on ARKK ETF for growth-oriented investors.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":872854117,"gmtCreate":1637484965624,"gmtModify":1637484965624,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845"},"htmlText":"Investors have climbed the wall of worry for now over inflation as consumer spending is definitely up! The market stock indexes are up!&nbsp; Cathie Wood has always said that an investor needs a minimum time frame of 4 years when investing in her ARKK funds to really see the returns.&nbsp; Well Cathie, I certainly like your unflinching commitment to disruptive technologies. Go Cathie, Go ARKK! 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙","listText":"Investors have climbed the wall of worry for now over inflation as consumer spending is definitely up! The market stock indexes are up!&nbsp; Cathie Wood has always said that an investor needs a minimum time frame of 4 years when investing in her ARKK funds to really see the returns.&nbsp; Well Cathie, I certainly like your unflinching commitment to disruptive technologies. Go Cathie, Go ARKK! 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙","text":"Investors have climbed the wall of worry for now over inflation as consumer spending is definitely up! The market stock indexes are up! Cathie Wood has always said that an investor needs a minimum time frame of 4 years when investing in her ARKK funds to really see the returns. Well Cathie, I certainly like your unflinching commitment to disruptive technologies. 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