美联储：非必要，不降息_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美联储：非必要，不降息

雪涛宏观笔记04-02

美联储“没必要、没空间、没动力”降息，也会尽量避免货币政策干扰大选，用“口头降息”代替实际调整是现实选择，市场降息预期将继续推迟和下调。前言：当前美国经济从各个方面看均并未表现出疲态——新增就业持续修复，薪资增速稳定，居民实际收入持续改善，企业端盈利强劲，非住宅投资高增势头不减——降息的内在紧迫性不足，年内75bp的市场降息预期或继续下调。另一方面，疫后通胀预期明显高于疫情前水平，叠加潜在增速推升...

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梁志刚他奶奶
·04-02
Shit
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小海石
·04-02
美联储一贯作风，就是配合政治需要降息，尤其是鲍威尔。。。哈哈
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向巴老致敬
·04-02
美联储的话能信吗？高筑墙广积粮才是正道
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Unicorn_001
·04-02
早晚都要降，只是时间问题。如果这一波收割东方大国无望，将立马开启降息通道…
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- 自动取款机:
  已经割了
  04-02
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ruan_7128
·04-02
老鲍的声鹰不管用，贵金属几乎每天都在创新高。
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- ruan_7128:
  不敢做多了，也不敢做空了，看看表演就是了。
  04-02
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- 里二外三:
  这才是要命的
  04-02
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余客
·04-02
雪涛-美联储主席
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一步一景
·04-02
shic
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一步一景
·04-02
市场预测家们本来就很扯淡，纯粹是拿炒作的信息割韭菜！加息的原因是什么，现在是否依然存在这个原因不是很清楚的吗？金融决策绝不仅仅在金融视角看问题。
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2000西红柿
·04-02
口嗨美联储见惯不怪
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Lao_Hu
·04-02
对面：求求你了，快降息吧，我不嘴硬了
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- ruan_7128:
  这么高的油价，通胀能下得来吗？要想达到2%的通胀，继续加息吧！ [难过]
  04-02
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- 余客:
  继续维持呗反正美国国债那么高美滋滋收钱的又不是别人就是你说的那些人
  04-02
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rates","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/430465ddc32ece9ae9379f3a523c58dc","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1},"content_text":"美联储“没必要、没空间、没动力”降息，也会尽量避免货币政策干扰大选，用“口头降息”代替实际调整是现实选择，市场降息预期将继续推迟和下调。前言：当前美国经济从各个方面看均并未表现出疲态——新增就业持续修复，薪资增速稳定，居民实际收入持续改善，企业端盈利强劲，非住宅投资高增势头不减——降息的内在紧迫性不足，年内75bp的市场降息预期或继续下调。另一方面，疫后通胀预期明显高于疫情前水平，叠加潜在增速推升实际中性利率，美联储可能系统性低估了名义中性利率，导致当前加息水平的限制性不足。未来如果油价快速上升推高通胀预期，不排除联储转向极度鹰派甚至再加息的可能。联储在大选年会避免干扰选情，可能更倾向于“谋定而后动”，尽量用“口头加/降息”代替实际的货币政策调整，美债利率将继续在高位维持较长时间。（一）降息，没必要美国经济基本面健康，近期通胀水平持续反弹，减弱了美联储降息的必要性。美国劳动力市场依然紧平衡。职位空缺数自2023年中开始便维持在约880万人水平，并未随着高利率的维持而进一步放缓。失业率连续25个月低于4%水平，是1969年以来的最长纪录；就业扩散指数进入2024年后也有所回升。三个月月均非农新增就业持续反弹，总就业人数已高于疫情前约550万人，回归至疫情前的趋势水平。各类薪资增速指标同比均保持在4%左右，居民实际购买力持续修复。非住宅投资与制造业投资保持高增，企业税后收入连续四个季度反弹，与固定投资保持良性增长。反映美国中小企业情况的Markit制造业与服务业PMI均升至荣枯线以上水平，企业盈利与居民薪资增长的良性循环仍在延续。当前美国的新增就业持续修复，薪资同比增速稳定在4%，居民实际收入持续改善。企业端盈利保持强劲，非住宅投资高增势头不减。从各个方面看，美国经济都未表现出疲态，联储没有急于降息的必要。（二）降息，没空间近半年来，美国通胀下降速率趋缓，核心CPI三个月平均环比折年率持续反弹，并有进一步上升的趋势；超级核心CPI亦连续反弹，环比稳定在0.4%左右水平。核心商品已结束去通胀并随库存周期进入反弹，而核心服务依然颇具粘性。2022年以来房租和房价的去通胀程度并未完全反映房价回落，未来住房通胀或将随着房价的反弹带来新的通胀压力。火热的就业市场与难弥合的劳动力供需缺口或将推动美国超级核心通胀的二次反弹。疫后通胀预期明显高于疫情前水平，叠加潜在增速推升实际中性利率，美联储或系统性低估名义中性利率，导致当前利率水平的限制性十分有限。这也是美国经济和劳动力市场在高利率下依然具备较强韧性的原因。名义中性利率是一个复杂的度量，最直接的参考来自于美联储每季度更新的SEP中对长期名义利率的估计，24年3月会议提高10bp至2.6%，是2019年底以来该预测首次高于2.5%水平。而过去一年间，联储官员模糊地表示中性利率在2.5%-3%附近。无论是2.6%还是3%的名义中性利率水平，可能都是被低估的，当前名义中性利率或在3.8%。其中，实际中性利率应大于疫情前1%的水平。从HLW模型外推，中性利率应该在1.2%。而布鲁金斯学会相对激进的模型测算认为当前美国实际中性利率在1.7%。其次，疫情后美国通胀预期明显上升，而非美联储所认为的保持不变。消费者视角下的通胀预期调查（密歇根大学通胀预期调查、纽约联储SCE与亚特兰大联储的企业通胀预期调查），均显示当前美国通胀预期已小幅高于疫情前水平。而投资者视角下的通胀预期也明显抬升，无论是5y5y的相对远期通胀预期，还是各期限的盈亏平衡通胀率都高于疫情前平均水平。即使取实际利率和通胀预期的平均值计算，当前美国名义中性利率也在3.8%左右（实际利率1.2%+通胀预期2.6%），与当前3-5年期美债利率4.2%左右相比，利率对经济和通胀的限制性并不明显。当前地缘政治格局复杂多变，俄乌冲突悬而未决。若出现地缘政治冲突加剧引发油价快速上升，将进一步推升通胀预期，不排除在油价大幅上涨的极端情形下，联储转向极度鹰派甚至再加息的可能。（三）降息，没动力除了美国基本面依然强劲外，美联储“谋定而后动”的另一考量是避免介入美国大选。美联储若开启降息周期，会将本就焦灼的选情推向更复杂维度，增加选举不确定性。美联储若降息，可能会进一步推高通胀预期；特别是认为降息有助于拜登的看法，可能适得其反。根据Gallup统计，高达30%的选民将经济前景列为最关心的大选议题，通胀预期的脱锚将会导致居民实际购买力的恶化，反而不利于拜登选情。我们预计联储将继续以“口头加/降息”为主，代替实际的货币政策调整，正如去年7月起所做的那样。去年7月，联储开启口头加息，先于7月FOMC会议纪要中指出“需要进一步证据确认通胀回落”，后于9月FOMC记者会表示“准备在适当的时候进一步加息”，将美债利率推升至5%。而后联储又口头降息，在美债利率达到5%的当晚，鲍威尔在演讲中提到“收益率上升会降低加息的必要性”。随后，11月与12月FOMC声明中特意提到“金融条件已经收紧”，美债利率与金融条件此后迅速回落，带动各类信贷标准边际修复。美债利率回到起点，金融条件降至22年9月以来新低。当前联储降息的必要性、空间和动力都不足，如果口头加息/降息还有用，又何必实质性调整。对于联储来说，“一动不如一静”可能是最好的选择，如果经济继续平稳前行，等大选尘埃落定后再做调整也不迟。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":290903132528912,"gmtCreate":1712047159505,"gmtModify":1712047161122,"author":{"id":"4171162463355482","authorId":"4171162463355482","name":"梁志刚他奶奶","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36e60c9867d574deb7e9fa20fd9eb27d","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4171162463355482","authorIdStr":"4171162463355482"},"htmlText":"Shit","listText":"Shit","text":"Shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290903132528912","repostId":1165975250,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":290866488942656,"gmtCreate":1712038270818,"gmtModify":1712038771101,"author":{"id":"4097754004230440","authorId":"4097754004230440","name":"小海石","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccb2d763afe00a622a29098607a902a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4097754004230440","authorIdStr":"4097754004230440"},"htmlText":"美联储一贯作风，就是配合政治需要降息，尤其是鲍威尔。。。哈哈","listText":"美联储一贯作风，就是配合政治需要降息，尤其是鲍威尔。。。哈哈","text":"美联储一贯作风，就是配合政治需要降息，尤其是鲍威尔。。。哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290866488942656","repostId":1165975250,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":290863466746104,"gmtCreate":1712037474735,"gmtModify":1712037739808,"author":{"id":"3565127729443109","authorId":"3565127729443109","name":"向巴老致敬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e694ef4aca4595a70ad820fb8832cf6c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565127729443109","authorIdStr":"3565127729443109"},"htmlText":"美联储的话能信吗？ 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