我不知道诺基亚怎么来的，但我知道他怎么没的_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

我不知道诺基亚怎么来的，但我知道他怎么没的

亿欧网2021-09-12

2011年的诺基亚手机帝国，就如同万历十五年的大明王朝。都说诺基亚的手机帝国是轰然倒下的，那诺基亚到底输在了哪一年？是iPhone发布的2007年，是手机部门被微软收购的2013年，还是手机业务被彻底剥离出售的2016年？在我们看来，更接近真相的答案，或许是2011年。 2011年开始之前，诺基亚仍是2010年全球智能手机出货量冠军，市占率高达33.1%，塞班系统也仍是智能手机用户中使用率...

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Ricky_2020
·2021-09-13
哈哈
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小花猫24
·2021-09-13
太可惜了
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2
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HCBICE
·2021-09-12
加油
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行天下639800
·2021-09-12
万历十五年[龇牙] [强] ；大清早已经亡故[难过] [难过] ；就怪那个微软出来的CEO，太照顾娘家人了，结果成了扶弟魔。
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1
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- Diaschy:
  666
  2021-09-12
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hhyw
·2021-09-12
可惜了😁
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1
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要把梦藏在树叶里
·2021-09-12
[微笑]
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3
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- Fir38989:
  666
  2021-09-12
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神话者
·2021-09-12
[微笑]
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3
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深林7
·2021-09-12
诺基亚死了吗
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9
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- 一个胖子:
  我现在还在诺基亚工作呢，我司过的好着呢
  2021-09-14
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whalePower
·2021-09-12
还会再次崛起吗？
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5
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- whalePower:
  加油
  2021-09-12
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3349aad3
·2021-09-12
[可爱]
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5
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- harry1016:
  good
  2021-09-12
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Ycho
·2021-09-12
[微笑] [微笑]
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4
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- 3349aad3:
  [惊讶]
  2021-09-12
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- Ycho:
  [开心] [开心]
  2021-09-12
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财米游言
·2021-09-12
老牌
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3
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- 神话者:
  [微笑]
  2021-09-12
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didn't","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add45f5f6d831b10103bde7bf4facac2","symbols_score_info":{"0HAF.UK":0.9,"NOK":0.9},"content_text":"2011年的诺基亚手机帝国，就如同万历十五年的大明王朝。\n\n都说诺基亚的手机帝国是轰然倒下的，那诺基亚到底输在了哪一年？\n是iPhone发布的2007年，是手机部门被微软收购的2013年，还是手机业务被彻底剥离出售的2016年？\n在我们看来，更接近真相的答案，或许是2011年。\n2011年开始之前，诺基亚仍是2010年全球智能手机出货量冠军，市占率高达33.1%，塞班系统也仍是智能手机用户中使用率最高的移动端操作系统，最高时达到了34.51%。\n\n但2011年开始后，一切都悄悄改变了。在智能手机行业史中，那是承上启下的一年，其中发生的故事，不仅决定了诺基亚的消亡，也奠定了今天的行业格局。\n一切变化，始自2011年2月。\n当时诺基亚宣布，与微软结成战略同盟，旗下产品将逐步放弃自家的塞班系统和MeeGo系统，转投Windows Phone系统阵营。\n如果你在十年前用过诺基亚手机，就会知道，塞班系统的使用体验其实还行，也能安装各种应用，并能流畅地运行。塞班被淘汰，抛开自身素质方面，还有更复杂的原因。\n\n一方面，00年代在智能手机市场率先起跑时，诺基亚希望友商也能用塞班，这样自己就可以既当运动员又当裁判，轻轻松松控制整条赛道。\n这种策略，无疑是逼着友商去寻找其它合作者，比如，开源的安卓系统。\n另一方面，3G的兴起和智能手机的大量普及，评价一个系统好坏的标准，在于其生态中是否有海量的第三方应用。而塞班对于第三方开发者来说，是一个开发门槛较高的操作系统，并不如安卓或iOS友好。\n对比之下，无论是做互联网出身的谷歌，还是在PC端和第三方打了20多年交道的苹果，都比诺基亚更有经验和办法。他们也分别运营出了App Sotre或者Google Play这样出色的应用商店，让软件开发者的收入得到了很好的保证。\n\n所以当塞班不再符合历史潮流，而与英特尔合作研发的MeeGo系统又进度过慢时，诺基亚做出了决定，他们先后找到了谷歌和微软，试探合作的可能性。\n到今天还有很多人在想象，如果当年诺基亚选择用安卓，是否就能将霸权维持到现在。\n但这种可能性并不存在，因为诺基亚找谷歌谈过，谈崩了。\n安卓系统使用内置第一方软件服务是，谷歌自己的地图、邮箱、浏览器、应用商店等等。但诺基亚在塞班时代，就已经有了功能高度重叠且成熟的第一方应用。\n\n安卓此时还很年轻，并未形成垄断，谷歌绝不希望诺基亚保留他们自己的软件生态。\n而对诺基亚来说，离开这些软件增值服务，自己就将成为纯粹的手机制造商，和三星、HTC等后生晚辈一起，靠堆砌硬件、营销以及价格战，在全球市场上肉搏。这也是他们绝不能接受的。\n与谷歌不同，智能手机时代已经落后在起跑线上的微软则更需要巨头的合作，他们承诺，将让诺基亚掌握Windows Phone系统的共同领导权。\n于是，在诺基亚时任CEO，也是微软前高管埃洛普的主导下，二者的联姻完成了。\n\n就是这个决定，让诺基亚的噩梦开始了。\n首先，这次合作，让随后发布的，搭载MeeGo系统的旗舰机N9成为鸡肋。虽然这手机产品素质并不低，但是当你知道是这绝版系统，以后没厂商会再用了，这手机你还买吗？\n更要命的是，这一连串的昏招，让不少诺基亚用户转投安卓和苹果阵营，此消彼长，安卓机和iPhone的出货量第一次超越了诺基亚。\n\n其次，放弃耕耘十余年的塞班，意味着诺基亚完全丧失了00年代的先发优势，从此他们需要陪着微软，几乎是从零开始建设Windows Phone生态。\n反而，这时拥有先发优势的变成了苹果和谷歌，在2011年的5月，iOS生态中的应用总数已超过50万个，想要反超谈何容易。\n最后，微软从00年代就开始砸钱做手机系统，但一直做得很失败。在这次合作中，表现也不是太好。\n最典型的例子，是在合作一年后发布的WP8，放弃了老的系统内核改用新内核，这导致两个后果，一是让第三方开发者的开发难度变大，二是WP7的用户无法升级到WP8。成功做到了既得罪开发者又得罪用户，请问你这个系统是给谁做的呢？\n答案可能是给PC端Win8做的。之所以换新内核，就是为了移动端系统可以和PC端新发布的Win8能够协调一致。\n\n这或许就是微软一直搞不好手机系统的原因，别人是做一个小巧轻便拿在手里好用的电脑，微软则是做一个能配合他们电脑系统使用顺便能打电话的终端。\n但大人，时代变了，属于PC端的大清早亡了。\n那么诺基亚和微软的结合就注定是一场悲剧吗？其实未必，如果他们的合作更早一些，或许诺基亚还有机会，但他们的合作出现在2011年，风起云涌的2011年。\n就在诺基亚宣布与微软合作的那个2月，三星在MWC展会上发布S系列的第二款机型S2。\nS2与iPhone颇有些神似，它4000万部的总销量，逼近了早半年发布的一代神机iPhone 4。\n\n半年后，三星又发布5.3寸屏的Note手机，开创大屏手机风潮。虽然乔布斯曾认为3.5寸的小屏才是完美尺寸，但苹果后来逐渐服软，也跟风推出了大屏的Plus机型。\n三星手机的崛起，让苹果感到了强烈的不适与不安。S2发布两个月后，苹果便发起诉讼，指控三星抄袭自己的多项设计，这场官司一直拉扯到2018年，才以三星赔偿5.39亿美元才算结束。\n其实当时更难受的是诺基亚，在此之前，很多人还是将阻击iPhone的希望放在诺基亚身上，N97与N8会被宣发说成是“iPhone杀手”。但三星的S2与Note成功之后，诺基亚就被彻底挤出了高端手机市场。\n另外在双旗舰带动下，三星颠覆了诺基亚的出货量霸权。2010年，三星的智能手机市占率只有7.6%，出货量不到诺基亚1/4。但2011年，三星出货量暴增310.5%，拿下当年的智能手机销量冠军。而诺基亚出货量下跌了22.8%，排名从第一跌到了第三，丢掉的市场份额大部分就是被三星抢走。\n\n自此，诺基亚永远告别了市占率冠军的宝座。\n然而对它来说，那一年来自东方的神秘力量，远不止三星一个。在即将成为全球智能手机最大市场的中国大地上，也正酝酿着一场翻天覆地的异变。\n2011年初，华为转变手机业务定位，锁定中高端产品，由余承东负责。但华为手机的崛起还需要几年时间，那一年直接改变游戏规则的事情，发生在8月。\n2011年8月16日，身穿黑T恤的雷军站上台前，向所有人展示1999元的初代小米。令人错愕的定价和现象级的抢购，宣告中国智能手机时代从此拉开序幕，无数玩家开始涌入这片海域。\n\n从此，依托中国日益成长起来的供应链体系，国产手机将在不到十年的时间内，成为全球智能手机主要玩家，侵蚀掉苹果三星之外，其它所有海外手机品牌的生存空间。\n\n而就在小米发布的8天后，苹果宣布，乔布斯将卸任CEO一职，改由库克接任。一个多月后的10月5日，乔布斯逝世，一代巨星陨落。\n所有人表示哀悼的同时，人们开始疯狂购买乔布斯的官方传记，重新阅读、认识这位巨匠的人生和产品理念。至少在中国，我们可以负责任地说，是从那一年开始，诞生了大批新的乔布斯粉丝以及苹果粉丝，自此之后，苹果成为了一种信仰。\n而乔布斯的继任者库克，虽然在上任之初饱受质疑，后来的事实证明，他是这个时代最出色的CEO之一。\n他重塑了苹果产品的供应链管理，将非常大的精力倾注在中国市场。比如积极配合中国政策，建立云上贵州数据中心，下架未获版号的游戏等动作，在乔布斯时代是完全无法想象的。\n另外，比起一生都未到过中国的乔布斯，库克已经造访中国十余次，还曾接受何同学采访。要知道，这些过去都是诺基亚、爱立信、摩托罗拉这种老牌通信巨头所擅长的。而当苹果也能做的时候，老家伙们在消费端也就失去了最后的优势。\n\n库克任期内，保持了iPhone在高端机市场的领先地位，打造了革命性单品AirPods，还带领苹果成为史上首家市值破万亿美元的公司。做接班人守天下能守得如此成功，并不简单。\n站在十年后的今天，我们会发现，2011年的诺基亚手机帝国，就如同万历十五年的大明王朝：那一年，手机界天朝上国余威尚在，可灭亡的命运，却已无法逆转。我们还会发现，那是暗流涌动的一年。\n\n无数公司的命运，在十年前已经早早决定。今天收获的一切果实，都来自那时的播种。\n温故知新。自从去年华为被美国封杀后，手机行业不再风平浪静，今天，又有多少暗流，正在高楼下涌动呢？在未来十年，我们又将见证哪些故事呢？","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":888730771,"gmtCreate":1631527112993,"gmtModify":1631527112993,"author":{"id":"3559608207518270","authorId":"3559608207518270","name":"Ricky_2020","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"哈哈","listText":"哈哈","text":"哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888730771","repostId":1164246826,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":888812380,"gmtCreate":1631486622340,"gmtModify":1632810277734,"author":{"id":"3578310588131461","authorId":"3578310588131461","name":"小花猫24","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd0b1cd795a1758b12afd5172b20ce6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"太可惜了","listText":"太可惜了","text":"太可惜了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888812380","repostId":1164246826,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":888391385,"gmtCreate":1631430878247,"gmtModify":1631887084882,"author":{"id":"3568697814695599","authorId":"3568697814695599","name":"HCBICE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4851c4a27e84de19dd126ece72f2e29","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"加油","listText":"加油","text":"加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888391385","repostId":1164246826,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":888948969,"gmtCreate":1631426675451,"gmtModify":1631426675451,"author":{"id":"3444732750101190","authorId":"3444732750101190","name":"行天下639800","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/7a9872d82227fdf805e09770cb2961a8","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"万历十五年[龇牙]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;；大清早已经亡故[难过]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;；就怪那个微软出来的CEO，太照顾娘家人了，结果成了扶弟魔。","listText":"万历十五年[龇牙]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;；大清早已经亡故[难过]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;；就怪那个微软出来的CEO，太照顾娘家人了，结果成了扶弟魔。","text":"万历十五年[龇牙] 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