业绩超预期，阿里股价却下跌，投资者在担心什么？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

业绩超预期，阿里股价却下跌，投资者在担心什么？

格隆汇2021-02-03

昨日，阿里巴巴发布了上一年四季度的财报。发布财报的前一晚，美股阿里巴巴大涨4.28%，昨晚一公布业绩，股价直线跳水，收跌3.85%。整体上看，业绩是比较亮眼的，但显然股价走势表现出来的，还不足以让投资者们满意。 1、MAU破9亿，阿里云、菜鸟网络实现盈亏平衡去年四季度，阿里实现营收2210.8亿元，同比增长37%；调整后净利润592.1亿元，同比增长27%。其中客户管理营收1019亿元，...

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hhyw
·2021-02-04
买买买，疯狂的买吧😁😁😁😁😁
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花喵喵
·2021-02-04
[晕]
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鸟语花香在坡县
·2021-02-03
不担心，赶紧买
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Sz_huathuat
·2021-02-03
今天安全啦?
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1
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liew2088
·2021-02-03
[白眼]
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Andersonzol
·2021-02-03
[流泪]
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进击的徐小伟
·2021-02-03
担心马大嘴
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What are investors worried about?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d706151d0b62bc5aed23f82eab0636f2","symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"昨日，阿里巴巴发布了上一年四季度的财报。\n发布财报的前一晚，美股阿里巴巴大涨4.28%，昨晚一公布业绩，股价直线跳水，收跌3.85%。\n\n整体上看，业绩是比较亮眼的，但显然股价走势表现出来的，还不足以让投资者们满意。\n1、MAU破9亿，阿里云、菜鸟网络实现盈亏平衡\n去年四季度，阿里实现营收2210.8亿元，同比增长37%；调整后净利润592.1亿元，同比增长27%。其中客户管理营收1019亿元，同比增长20%，依然是阿里的主要收入来源，但占比有所下降谓46%。\n\n在当前互联网巨头逐步陷入存量竞争的大环境之下，电商平台的天花板近在咫尺，新增用户是所有老牌玩家最头疼的问题，但阿里还是给了大家一个惊喜。上一季期，阿里的移动月活用户（MAU）突破9亿，新增2100万；年度月活消费者数量为7.79亿，新增了2200万，是过去8个季度以来的最高纪录。\n这大概是得益于淘宝平台的快速下沉，根据财报，四季度为止淘宝特价版月活量和年活跃量均超1亿，而在3个月之前，特价版的月活数据为7000万人次。也就是说，四季度月活量的增长主要是来自于此，天猫和淘宝则出现放缓的迹象。\n不过，值得欣慰的是，虽然用户数量增长变得困难，但伴随着营销手段的升级，淘宝首页推荐带来的页面访问量同比强劲增长超过90%，平台的交易额也在不断提高，天猫四季度GMV（剔除未支付订单）同比增长19%，其中双十一活动产生的GMV达到4982 亿元，与2019年同期相比增长26%。尤其是直播带货的新消费形式受益颇多，2020年淘宝直播带来的GMV超过4000亿元。\n电商平台的增长进入瓶颈期并不是新鲜事，因此阿里一直以来都在向外探索，如今也取得了一定的成绩。\n阿里云是最亮眼的一点，过去这一块业务常常一直是一个无底洞、财务的大窟窿，但报告期内阿里云首次实现了经调整EBITA 转正。数据显示，云计算业务收入同比增长50%至人民币161.15亿元，主要由互联网、零售行业和公共部门客户收入的强劲增长带来的规模经济效益。\n同样，阿里一直在投资的物流板块也终于盈亏平衡，实现正经营现金流。报告期内菜鸟网络营收为113.6亿元，同比增长51%，主要是由于跨境和国际零售业务的履约订单量增加。\n当然，也有不尽人意的地方，比如本地生活业务这一块，增速仅有10%，远低于同期阿里巴巴核心商业营收37%的增速。阿里巴巴接手饿了么、成立阿里本地生活两年多时间内，与老对手美团缠斗不休，但阿里在本地生活砸下了大量资金、资源，却一直收效寥寥，与美团的差距依然不小。\n2、瓶颈、新的增长点以及反垄断\n财报其实能反映很多问题，不单是简单的钱，而且是未来的可能性。\n业绩并不差，甚至超过众多机构的预期，可实际情况是阿里的股价毫不犹豫地在下跌，这就值得思考了：投资者在担心什么？\n我以为是——成长能力。\n财报显示，阿里的经营利润率、经调整的EBIDA和EBITA利润率、经调整的核心商业的EBITA均有3至4个百分点的下降。作为目前核心利润和主要现金流来源的客户管理收入增速20%，大幅低于37%的整体收入。\n\n显然，如果仅看阿里的“传统业务”，有担忧是理所当然的，问题是阿里能不能找到新的利润增长点。\n新零售或许是一个机会，这也是2015年逍遥子（张勇）接任CEO以来的战略方向，对新零售进行全方位、毫无保留的投入，全面渗透到消费者的日常生活之中。\n尤其是收购高鑫零售（大润发、欧尚超市的母公司），推动了新零售季度收入同比几乎翻倍的增长，也带来12万以上的新员工。阿里正在变成一家越来越“重资产”，自营业务规模越来越大的公司——这在资本市场上引发了许多争议，并非所有投资人都认同这个发展路径。\n而从结果来看，在收购高鑫零售之后，新零售已经能够贡献阿里季度收入的23%，上一期只为16%，增长是很明显的。\n\n互联网对用户消费行为的渗透是渐进的，从低频进展到高频、从异地进展到同城，是一个自然而然的进程。淘系电商现在占据了5-6万亿人民币的庞大市场，但是这个市场与巨大的日用杂货、O2O服务市场相比，规模就要明显逊色了。\n除了规模，新零售市场的用户黏性也明显较高——用户可能每隔几天才会有打开淘宝的欲望，但是每天都会有买食品饮料、买菜、订外卖的欲望。因此，新零售不仅能解决阿里的收入增长需求，还可以解决流量需求，它创造的新流量还可以输出到淘系电商等其他板块。\n与京东、美团、拼多多这些竞争对手相比，阿里的新零售布局以大批线下商超为核心，包括大润发、盒马、银泰等，而且这些线下商超都是在逍遥子的主持之下收购或建立的。根据财报披露的数据，2020年10-12月，在与阿里的协同效应之下，线上购物已经占据了高鑫零售GMV的24%，这证明互联网对线下零售的改造是可以成功的。\n所以，这就不奇怪阿里为什么会想去做买菜这种生意了，尽管备受争议。\n但可以看到的是，阿里似乎快找到自己的方向了。\n正如逍遥子张勇所说：我们看到了激烈竞争带来的挑战，但更看到了市场潜在的巨大机遇。\n企业的发展，从来不怕犯错，只怕一成不变。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":317085817,"gmtCreate":1612398262339,"gmtModify":1703761272223,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"买买买，疯狂的买吧😁😁😁😁😁","listText":"买买买，疯狂的买吧😁😁😁😁😁","text":"买买买，疯狂的买吧😁😁😁😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317085817","repostId":1161524899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":317094516,"gmtCreate":1612394877335,"gmtModify":1703761232555,"author":{"id":"3567731939595703","authorId":"3567731939595703","name":"花喵喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1b9176bceb20048df5e91a628ddf41","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[晕]&nbsp;","listText":"[晕]&nbsp;","text":"[晕]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317094516","repostId":1161524899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":314417318,"gmtCreate":1612366579634,"gmtModify":1703760998906,"author":{"id":"3574808464374306","authorId":"3574808464374306","name":"鸟语花香在坡县","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9913b1aabb645acdb516c5ee1b1c67a","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"不担心，赶紧买","listText":"不担心，赶紧买","text":"不担心，赶紧买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314417318","repostId":1161524899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":314251927,"gmtCreate":1612357987969,"gmtModify":1703760766663,"author":{"id":"3558301746982612","authorId":"3558301746982612","name":"Sz_huathuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87ea839af28edad6ca717a9bb75d3adf","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"今天安全啦?","listText":"今天安全啦?","text":"今天安全啦?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314251927","repostId":1161524899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":314204804,"gmtCreate":1612350718708,"gmtModify":1703760677639,"author":{"id":"3573039425686248","authorId":"3573039425686248","name":"liew2088","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f71d3156e2cf0636e0cc6d56743eba8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314204804","repostId":1161524899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":314691039,"gmtCreate":1612341496821,"gmtModify":1703760547293,"author":{"id":"3567138325076637","authorId":"3567138325076637","name":"Andersonzol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f9248809971571bcb10265a6a9e493","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"esse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