美国政府若债务违约，美联储将成“接盘侠”？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美国政府若债务违约，美联储将成“接盘侠”？

腾讯美股 2021-09-28

在正常情况下，美国财政部下个月的某一时刻就将用尽手头所有的资金，丧失支付能力，而在提升债务上限问题上，国会目前依然处在政治僵局当中。当地时间周一，早些时候已经由众议院通过的一份旨在避免触发债务上限，避免导致美国政府停摆的议案在参议院闯关失败——在两党更加势均力敌的参议院，共和党对这一议案明确表示强烈抵制。已经被债务上限问题搅扰到心神不宁的金融市场，未来一段时间注定不会平静。上周，联储主席鲍威尔（...

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hhyw
·2021-09-29
请点赞和回复
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- 云里梦里飞:
  来了
  2021-09-29
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- 滚股怪:
  Ok
  2021-09-29
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CKWAI
·2021-09-29
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-09-29
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EricBong
·2021-09-29
来了
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神话者
·2021-09-29
[微笑]
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磐石533
·2021-09-29
美国人表面争执，实际不要停！
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里二外三
·2021-09-29
没搞清楚体系就敢写作业
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Sen001
·2021-09-29
[财迷]
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- Sen001:
  政府违约真牛
  2021-09-29
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Youn7276
·2021-09-29
阅
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海边的风
·2021-09-28
都是一些滑头
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- Youn7276:
  好
  2021-09-29
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山那边的英英子
·2021-09-28
h
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- 山那边的英英子:
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JanetXinru
·2021-09-28
n
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Yellen）耶伦，还有其他一些官员都表示，虽然他们并不希望真正动用这些措施，但是也不排除真的这样行动起来的可能性。\n在会上，鲍威尔将一些措施称作是“令人作呕”的，而其他联储官员也不乏用“丑陋”或者“出格”来形容这些措施的，他们会做出这样的反应，主要是出于两个原因。首先，从制度层面而言，联储是不可以直接为美国联邦政府提供资金的，大家经常提到的联储相对于财政政策必须有其独立性，也正是这一层意思。其次，联储官员们担心，一旦这些紧急计划为世人所知，那些选举上台的官员就会更加肆无忌惮，认为不必着急，甚至没有必要提高债务上限了。\n“这些决定都在我们最不愿意做出之列。”鲍威尔当时说道，“制度风险将是极为巨大的。就事论事地谈经济逻辑，这些做法确实是成立的，但是这样做无异于自己步入遍布荆棘的政治世界，去扮演救世主的角色。”\n耶伦则表示：“我可不愿意真正这么做，但是我也同样不愿意彻底说不。”\n其他专门发表来观点的官员还包括波士顿联储行长罗森格伦（Eric Rosengren），以及前文提到的纽约联储行长威廉姆斯，他那时的职务是旧金山联储行长。\n在正常情况下，美国财政部下个月的某一时刻就将用尽手头所有的资金，丧失支付能力，而在提升债务上限问题上，国会目前依然处在政治僵局当中。2019年8月，国会曾经做出决议，未来两年内暂停债务上限的约束力，允许财政部继续发债，而到今年8月1日，美国国债规模达到大约28.5万亿美元时，债务上限已经重新开始生效。从那时到现在，财政部已经用尽浑身解数来节省资金，确保自己的偿付能力。\n在过去，遇到类似问题的时候，大多数情况下，各方总是能够想办法最后达成一致，提升债务上限，而一些分析师警告说，正是因为这样的历史经验，使得许多投资者都对今年秋季的最新危机存在估计不足的问题。比如，最让人担心的一个逻辑闭环就是，政坛上的恐吓游戏进行的同时，因为投资者相信问题总会解决，所以市场依然相对平静，而反过来，市场没有发出警报，就会让国会觉得自己没有必要迅速采取行动。共和党高层已经明确表示，他们今年不会帮助民主党提高上限。\n不久前，在一次新闻发布会上被问到这份紧急计划时，鲍威尔拒绝发表任何评论，但是同时他警告说，如果国会等待过长时间才采取行动，那么经济和金融市场就将遭到严重破坏。“这根本就不是我们应该去考虑的事情。”他表示，“没有人有理由假设联储，或者是其他方面能够在如此重大的失败之后保护市场和经济的周全。”\n2011年，由于财政部在若干天内都无法支付一些特定的福利如社保之类，标普史无前例地剥夺了美国的AAA信用评级，将其予以调降。2013年，在另外一次财政悬崖危机期间，美国政府停摆了整整十六天后，国会才通过了为政府提供资金和提高债务上限的法案。\n根据五年时间过后自动解密的文件，那两次变故当中，联储官员们都曾经秘密讨论过——如果政治僵局导致政府发生债务违约，或者造成更广泛的金融市场不稳定，他们该如何应对？不过，联储方面至今对这一切都不加置评。\n鲍威尔是一位共和党让，他20世纪90年代早期曾在财政部担任高官，而负责的工作就是债务政策，而他2011年再次回到公众视野当中，是在华盛顿智库两党政策中心（Bipartisan Policy Center），当时在那里担任义务分析师时，鲍威尔警告说，若是共和党让执意要以债务上限为“人质”，迫使奥巴马总统削减预算，将造成极为严重的后果。当时，鲍威尔在中心设计了一个政府资金流动模型，来确定所谓“X日”——在那一天到来后，财政部就将耗尽资金，无法支付各种款项。\n那场危机过后，奥巴马在顾问们的建议下提名鲍威尔出任联储理事，后者于2012年宣誓就职。2018年，鲍威尔又成为了联储主席。日前，中心经济政策主管阿卡巴斯（Shai Akabas）发布了一份预测报告，显示这一次的“X日”将在10月15日至11月4日之间到来。\n会议记录显示，在2011年的时候，联储官员们曾经就一个政府支付管理流程达成了一致，在这一安排之下，财政部可以将国债至于最优先位置，首先偿付国债，然后再考虑其他支付项目。联储还会告知各家银行，后者可以将违约的国债充作风险准备金，以及在客户现金需求反常旺盛的情况下，银行不会因为储备资本下滑而受到惩罚。\n2013年10月16日，时任联储主席伯南克（Ben 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