“股神”巴菲特再出手，抄底美股的时机成熟了？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

“股神”巴菲特再出手，抄底美股的时机成熟了？

腾讯美股2020-07-07

这笔所谓大型交易，其实也没有多“大”，更谈不上说明巴菲特预计美股市场将从现在开始大幅走高。相反，这只是一笔就事论事的交易，一笔针对之前已经被打压很惨的天然气行业的小规模投资而已。在沉寂了许久之后，“股神”巴菲特（Warren Buffett）终于动手了。伯克希尔哈撒韦斥资40亿美元，收购了道明尼能源（Dominion Energy）旗下的天然气网络资产，交易的总规模达到97亿美元。那么，...

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郝医生
·2020-07-08
他强由他强，清风拂山岗。他横由他横，明月照大江。巴菲特行事风格，不受外界影响。
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一个韭菜的股神梦
·2020-07-08
天然气这么惨，难道是他打压的？
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icooly
·2020-07-08
谷底吗？山顶吗？
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puercat
·2020-07-08
姜还是老的辣
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山旎
·2020-07-07
牛人看好未来新能源
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大虎b
·2020-07-07
这是站岗啊！！！！！！！哪是抄底啊！！！！！！
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-07-07
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Clumsypig
·2020-07-07
危机泡沫来了也不见得是坏事，就看你怎么操作了
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abccooolc
·2020-07-07
都新高了还搁着说抄底呢
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2
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亚洲股神买必赢
·2020-07-07
学李嘉诚买能源吗
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Jiey
·2020-07-07
巴菲特追高[开心]
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time is ripe for Buffett, the \"god of shares\", to make another move and copy the bottom of U.S. Stocks?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a92d88acf4db7ebafff5b07fa2c632f","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"这笔所谓大型交易，其实也没有多“大”，更谈不上说明巴菲特预计美股市场将从现在开始大幅走高。相反，这只是一笔就事论事的交易，一笔针对之前已经被打压很惨的天然气行业的小规模投资而已。\n\n\n在沉寂了许久之后，“股神”巴菲特（Warren Buffett）终于动手了。伯克希尔哈撒韦斥资40亿美元，收购了道明尼能源（Dominion Energy）旗下的天然气网络资产，交易的总规模达到97亿美元。那么，巴菲特终于结束了近四年按兵不动的状态，做出了2016年以来最大规模的交易，是否意味着他认为抄底美股的时机已经成熟呢？\n在许多观察家看来，这笔交易本身都是可圈可点，比如CFRA Research分析师赛弗特（Cathy Seifert）评价说，这次收购是“审慎之举，其正当性和合理性很容易证明，收购目标完全契合他们的既有商业模型”。彭博的分析师们也在研究报告当中指出，对于伯克希尔哈撒韦能源而言，交易“进一步巩固了他们在天然气行业的地位，考虑到能源价格今年的走势，以及一些行业玩家急切想要转向清洁能源的意愿，交易的时机可谓恰到好处”。\n问题在于，如果有人认为这笔交易标志着巴菲特的立场发生了改变，转向了牛派，那他们可就要大失所望了。\n\n现在，美股已经重新涨回了接近历史最高点的水位，如果这时能够得到巴菲特认定股价依然被低估的加持，那美好的景象简直让人难以想象。事实上，最近一段时间，相信美股依然低估的人，在华尔街还真不是少数。他们的最重要根据之一就是，还有大量的现金在作壁上观——不必说，其中就包括伯克希尔的超过1370亿美元现金。\n诚然，美股近期的戏剧性上涨确实让越来越多人沉不住气，生怕错过进一步的涨势，在诱惑之中投身进来，而他们的资金入场，反过来又推动了股价的进一步上涨，由此形成了一个自我验证、自我完成的循环……短期内，估值的不断膨胀看似确实已经不可遏制了，但是，经历了几十年风雨的巴菲特，又怎么可能轻易被这种欣快症所蛊惑？\n第二季度盈利季节的大幕很快就要开启了，许多企业现在都干脆以变数为理由取消了今年的财测，而众所周知，要判断估值是否合理，最重要的参照就是营收、盈利等的实际表现和预期。这也就难怪，近期财经媒体在谈论投资者的行为时，广泛使用了“盲飞”这样的说法。没有任何实质性线索，全凭感觉行事，巴菲特显然不会这么做。\n\n更加不必说，在众多估值评判指标当中，巴菲特最为看重的单一指标就是国内生产总值对股市总市值的比率，后者甚至被许多观察家称为“巴菲特指标”。如上图所示，虽然经历了3月以来的暴跌，但是整体来看，这一指标并没有发生什么根本性的变化，更谈不上发出股市已经低估的信号。相反，这一指标依然居于历史性的高水平。\n同样需要指出的是，伯克希尔近几年来一直没有什么大动作是不假，但是说巴菲特没有做过任何尝试，或者面对过任何机会，就未免有失妥当了。\n比如，早在3月崩盘前几个月，去年年底时，巴菲特就曾经试图收购软件和硬件分销商Tech Data，但是私募股权公司Apollo Global Management斜刺里杀了出来，巴菲特因为不愿意参与竞价大战而放弃了这次尝试。今年早些时候，蒂芙尼在最终接受路威酩轩的收购报价前，也曾经联络过伯克希尔，想要看看后者是否能够给出更高的价格，但是遭到了巴菲特的拒绝。\n\n还有，在非收购交易方面，伯克希尔其实一直相当活跃。比如，去年他们注资100亿美元，支持西方石油收购阿纳达科，获得了极为优厚的条件，气坏了西方石油的大股东伊坎（Carl 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