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悲观男孩马斯克，他担忧地球人口不够了

字母榜2022-01-21

文/毕安娣用积极男孩形容年过半百的马斯克，居然没有什么违和感。在B站，一段只有33秒的马斯克采访剪辑，播放量超过10万次，标题就是“如何保持乐观”，那句“我宁愿错误的乐观，也不要正确的悲观”，拥有成为手机壁纸的潜力。但是，这也许只是马斯克的一个愿望、一个期许，事实是，悲观若是正确的，马斯克不仅会仔细咀嚼，还会坚定不移地传播给全人类，甚至发推特与大家分享。新年刚刚走过20个日夜，继“经济衰退”之后，...

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梵羽离尘
·2022-01-22
韭菜不够用了
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3
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拿着青春陪你赌
·2022-01-22
你看看，美丽国富豪也姓马
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4
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收起
- EmmanuelQeen:
  wah
  2022-01-22
  回复
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辛勤的老牛
·2022-01-22
未来炮灰不够用了，精英们的后代可能不能永生了。世界文明延不延续关卑微的平民啥事？早点毁灭，万事皆休。本来对于宇宙，生命只不过是个短暂的瞬间。
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3
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汇汇汇
·2022-01-22
神经病
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2
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假面骑士雷
·2022-01-22
过于悲观了
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2
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梁咏琪
·2022-01-22
感觉这是个傻子，但是很会割韭菜！
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6
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收起
- wh快乐投资:
  [微笑]
  2022-09-30
  回复
  举报
- 铭发:
  🤔
  2022-02-01
  回复
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Jay21
·2022-01-21
不够资本割韭菜了！资本的贪婪真是太可怕了！
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5
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St1143
·2022-01-21
Please like, thanks [Happy]
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点赞
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阁下就是韭菜
·2022-01-21
应该说是韭菜不够用了[冷漠]
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5
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Rosalynchen
·2022-01-21
等等，太阳膨胀不会也很快就发生了吧？？？？这不是10亿年后的事情吗？
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2
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Rosalynchen
·2022-01-21
马斯克和我一样是半悲观主义[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
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7
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Rosalynchen
·2022-01-21
没办法啊[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
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2
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WGJJS
·2022-01-21
放心啦，如果你把黑猴和驴子当人类的话，人类增速超快的
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1
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谁允许你直视本王
·2022-01-21
马斯克硬核催生
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2
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- 顺盈:
  那是美国，发钱
  2022-01-21
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Randers的观点，其在2012年出版的《2052：未来四十年的全球预测》一书中表示，全球人口将在2040年左右开始减少。“真正的问题不是‘人口过剩’，而是老龄化和人口衰退。”也是在2019年，人工智能大会上，马斯克就与马云并排而坐，讨论过人口问题的严峻性：“人们常说移民火星，但是……人从哪儿来？火星也需要人去住，现在没有人，只有一群机器。”在这场持续四十分钟的对谈中，对人口问题的担忧，是俩人少有的共识。疫情之后的这两年，马斯克似乎愈发焦虑，提及人口问题的频率也在提高。就在刚刚过去的12月，华尔街日报CEO峰会上，马斯克就呼吁大家多生孩子，人口不够，文明将会崩溃。“我认为文明面临的最大风险之一，是低出生率及其持续迅速的下降。很多人——包括聪明人——觉得这个世界上的人太多了，认为人口增长已经失去了控制，（事实）完全相反。如果人们不更多地生孩子，文明将会崩溃。”说完这段话，他还加了一句：“记住我的话。”就马斯克本人而言，这正是他视角中“正确的悲观”，而他正在不遗余力地告诉大家自己的判断。并且与此同时，在行为上，他一如既往的积极投入。马斯克将特斯拉定义为“机器人公司”，谈及未来，他将其意义落在了对劳动力的替代——因为，在他所看到那个并不遥远的未来，劳动力是不够的。更个人的“实践”是，马斯克与两任妻子孕育了六个生命，马斯克在近年不止一次地将自己称为榜样。人口崩溃是人类文明的巨大威胁、人们应该（像他一样）多生孩子，同样的话他在12月的另一场播客采访中也重申了一遍。看来，油管博主的视频封面并不耸人听闻，有时候马斯克发出的警告，还真就是十万火急的调调。在人口问题上，马斯克的警告并没有招致太多相反的声音，这其实是个特例。更多的时候，马斯克都会招来争锋相对的对手。就在那场马云和马斯克的对话之中，除了人口问题，俩人几乎就没有什么共识了。而其中最核心的，就是对于人工智能的不同态度。彼时媒体就将之称为“人工智能的乐观者与悲观者交锋“，B站中，这场对话的视频标题被起为“风清扬对话钢铁侠”。马云的乐观的确显而易见，他将智慧与聪明区分开，认为人工智能聪明但并不具备人类的智慧：“很多人担心人工智能，他们需要对自己有更多的自信。”实际上，马云在那场对话前的几个月，于诺奖得主对话中，也表达过对人工智能的乐观：“今天，很多人讨厌人工智能，但未来，如果没有人工智能整个社会就没办法运转。”而马斯克则一如既往地对人工智能保持谨慎态度。他不仅认为人工智能将远超人类，而且正因为人类的普遍自信，使得他对未来“失控”的担忧更添阴霾。马云（左）、马斯克（右）从2014年开始，马斯克就不断发出对人工智能的担忧，甚至将人工智能称作比核武器还危险的事物。和人口问题一样，马斯克强调“请记住我的话”。这个观点多少年来不曾改变，除了与马云的交锋以外，马斯克与扎克伯格也曾有过互怼。扎克伯格在2017年的一场直播中，被问到如何看待马斯克的人工智能威胁论，大剌剌地回答说人工智能的反对者与末日鼓吹者太过消极，而且很不负责任。马斯克则发推隔空呛声扎克伯格对这个领域的认识很有限。除了人工智能失控地发展将会威胁人类以外，在马斯克的眼中，人工智能“作妖”的方式还有很多种。比如人工智能的竞争将有可能带来世界第三次大战，这是2017年马斯克发出的警告，他呼吁监管机构引导人工智能的技术发展。两种阵营的交锋还在持续，究竟是阴谋论者别有用心，还是短视者盲目乐观，目前还没有定论。但马斯克显然不会让自己的担忧仅仅停留在心中，也不会寄希望于外部，对于人工智能的威胁，马斯克的最积极应对就是脑机接口业务，他所创办的“神经连接”Neuralink公司，正是可以通过植入芯片提升人脑能力，让人脑有望与人工智能平等沟通——免得未来有一天，人工智能与人沟通完全是对牛弹琴。细看马斯克所展开的若干事业，每一项背后都有着某种危机感的驱使。Neuralink是与人工智能沟通的准备，特斯拉机器人（和自己的孩子）是对人口崩溃的应对。而SpaceX的太空事业，致力于人类最终称为多行星物种，背后是对人类灭绝的担忧。前几天马斯克还在推特中说：“太阳膨胀可能会导致地球上所有物种灭绝，包括人类。只有让生命多行星化，才可以避免这种命运。”同样走“太空殖民”路线的贝索斯，相比而言出发点就乐观得多。在贝索斯的愿景中，太空殖民地将会建造在离地球很近的地方，地球被保护起来，在太空出生的人们可以回去参观，就像逛公园一样。这个愿景在马斯克看来自然是毫无意义的，既然太空殖民的背后动因是担心太阳膨胀导致的物种灭绝，那靠近地球的殖民地也难逃被烧死的命运。闭上眼睛想象两种未来，马斯克的多行星殖民多少有些悲壮，而贝索斯则勾勒了一幅世外桃源画卷。同样地，在特斯拉与太阳城的新能源事业背后，是对能源危机的担忧。早在特斯拉收购太阳城的前一年，马斯克曾在一档电台节目中发出警告：“本世纪我们需要解决的最大问题，是可持续能源生产和消费的问题。”在马斯克的眼中，人类依赖这种日益减少的资源，这行为很“疯”。既然对环境有害，而且迟早用完，人类为什么不早早调转船头，为什么要在一条死路上一边哀叹一边前进？有意思的是，纵观马斯克的这些警告，无一不提到“人类文明”。说到底，马斯克的最大担忧，就是人类文明的终结。工作狂看起来跨界做了很多事，其实不过都是在为人类文明的延续而奋斗罢了——至少马斯克的故事是这样讲的。这个故事目前为止还是有相当的说服力的，马斯克的逻辑自洽，人类文明与他当下所展开事业之间的关系，也与他自己的人生一致。马斯克在华尔街日报CEO峰会上，虽然谈到了对人口下降的担忧，但却表示自己并不想要永生。他的理由很清奇：如果不是固有一死，还真有可能没这个动力和压力做这么多事情了。换句话说，生命的有限让生命更有意义。当然了，你站在桥上看风景，看风景的人在楼上看你。站在桥上的马斯克挥舞双手大喊危险的时候，也有人看着马斯克，觉得这人本身就是个危险。去年12月，欧洲欧洲航天局局长约瑟夫·阿施巴赫已经敦促欧洲大陆领导人停止助长埃隆·马斯克主宰新太空经济的雄心。他警告称，缺乏协调一致的行动意味着马斯克正在“自己制定规则”。那个想要抚平焦虑地积极男孩，最终成为了别人的担忧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":630201530,"gmtCreate":1642859861378,"gmtModify":1642859861378,"author":{"id":"3575238512108451","authorId":"3575238512108451","name":"梵羽离尘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52cd1cb17ed0999230d2d6815d5bbc18","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575238512108451","authorIdStr":"3575238512108451"},"htmlText":"韭菜不够用了","listText":"韭菜不够用了","text":"韭菜不够用了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630201530","repostId":1154771796,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":630634882,"gmtCreate":1642811410983,"gmtModify":1642811410983,"author":{"id":"3560209665659151","authorId":"3560209665659151","name":"拿着青春陪你赌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09432734e68f71c0687b3996a46af5eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560209665659151","authorIdStr":"3560209665659151"},"htmlText":"你看看，美丽国富豪也姓马","listText":"你看看，美丽国富豪也姓马","text":"你看看，美丽国富豪也姓马","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630634882","repostId":1154771796,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7199488,"gmtCreate":1642815181042,"gmtModify":1642815181077,"authorId":3569477879515338,"author":{"id":3569477879515338,"idStr":"3569477879515338","authorId":3569477879515338,"name":"EmmanuelQeen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229c717db2c50af149c3454594cc38dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":630634882,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>wah</u>","text":"<u>wah</u>","html":"<u>wah</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":630607218,"gmtCreate":1642802022664,"gmtModify":1642802125446,"author":{"id":"3524475490151137","authorId":"3524475490151137","name":"辛勤的老牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11ba1980ae01083eebaebf0fd4b585a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3524475490151137","authorIdStr":"3524475490151137"},"htmlText":"未来炮灰不够用了，精英们的后代可能不能永生了。世界文明延不延续关卑微的平民啥事？早点毁灭，万事皆休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