2020回报超4000%！美股崩盘之下，黑天鹅基金成大赢家_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2020回报超4000%！美股崩盘之下，黑天鹅基金成大赢家

腾讯美股2020-04-29

在3月当中，美国众多危机对冲基金都斩获颇丰，但是不少投资者都表示，像这样的策略往往都需要等待多年，才能遇到一次崩盘的机会，因此恐怕依然难以吸引更多的支持者。《金融时报》报道称，那些在设计层面就要从崩盘当中获利的基金，今年迄今为止的总体回报达到了57.2%，已经达到了创纪录的水平。这也可以从另外一个侧面说明新冠病毒疫情已经造成了多大的破坏。其中的佼佼者，比如纽约Capstone的“尾端风险”策略，...

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霸气旳女汉子
·2020-04-30
阅
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-04-30
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阿呆宝
·2020-04-30
两头赌一头，总有人能赌对！
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1
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两只兔子手牵手
·2020-04-30
外星人来侵略了.可能就是暴跌最低价！其他的什么小打小闹没点事
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凯凯和哼哼
·2020-04-30
对冲就是规避风险的工具，靠这个赚钱，就算了吧
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财运小七
·2020-04-29
真的假的，吹的吧
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MR. No
·2020-04-29
要不挑战一下用一美元去拉斯维加斯，赢回整个赌场[贱笑]
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二十诸天
·2020-04-29
欲速则不达。
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-04-29
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我就是阿硕
·2020-04-29
太精彩了，我要是投了1万刀，就财富自由了！
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- 我就是阿硕:
  [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]不至于吧
  2020-04-30
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- 凯凯和哼哼:
  但是你其他股票赔了50万…
  2020-04-30
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- 我就是阿硕:
  还有这个可是美元，不是人民币啊，这个钱真不少了 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
  2020-04-29
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赚钱中的Joshua
·2020-04-29
精彩！
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Investments。这一基金的尾端风险策略在设计层面就是为了捕捉到资产价格异常剧烈波动所能够带来的好处，斯皮茨纳格自豪地表示，他今年已经为客户创造了超过4000%的回报。在本月上旬发布的投资者信件当中，斯皮茨纳格写道：“现在我们是时候再度大显身手，让大家看到我们作为风险消减策略的意义了——在市场经历了史上最可怕的月份之一后，我们至少可以带给大家一点安心和慰藉。”他在信中带来了巨大的好消息：这只基金3月间的投资资本回报率为3612%，年度迄今为止的回报率为4144%。谈到后市，斯皮茨纳格表示，在他看来，无所不在的超级金融泡沫即便经历了这一轮历史性股灾，依然难言破灭。“展望未来，这个世界依然深陷在超级全球性金融泡沫当中。这是显而易见的，不必多言。市场一直都是按照‘完美假设’来定价的，哪怕现在面对着不断创下纪录的人类史上仅见的货币刺激（而且还是集中在短短几周时间里），市场定价依然是基于‘非常好’的假设——依然过于昂贵。”“这也就意味着，一切远没有到结束的时候；当前的疫情其实只是一种可能刺破泡沫的威胁，还谈不到真正刺破了它。（当然，我们也会看到，那些吹泡泡的人也接近黔驴技穷了。）事实就是，央行吹起的史无前例的泡沫，以及相关的疯狂情绪、冒险投资和杠杆化造成了各种系统性的弱点，疫情之所以会对金融市场和经济有那么大的潜在破坏力，正是因为这些弱点的存在。”泡沫尚未真正破灭，言外之意自然是，斯皮茨纳格相信，自己的基金未来还将依然大有用武之地。只不过，他也表示并不怎么指望自己的基金会因当下亮丽的表现获得大量涌入的新投资。他解释说，投资者对待Universa策略的正确方式其实是应该让其在自己投资组合当中拥有一席之地，作为保护自己免于剧烈波动行情冲击的手段，“但是我们却从来没有得到过这种地位，因为大多数人只有在崩盘时才会想到它”。2008年，在金融市场全线崩盘的情况下，尾端风险基金却斩获颇丰，成为了众多投资者瞩目的明星。在稍早的2007年，前对冲基金经理人塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）的著作《黑天鹅》（The black swan）大卖，让世人开始了解这些奇特的投资产品，而塔勒布目前正是Universa的顾问。塔勒布书中的重要观点之一就是，那些出乎预料而又能够动摇我们世界观的事件，其发生频率其实要比我们以为的高出不少。今年3月，全世界众多国家的政府为了控制疫情蔓延而开始采取极端措施，便是此类事件的最新一例，而金融市场自然也因此发生巨变。“疫情的扩散简直是爆炸性的。”斯皮茨纳格评价道，“金融市场原本是按照完美预期定价的，而突然间，世界的完美面纱便被毫不留情地扯下了。”虽然这种门类的基金今年都风光无限，但是其中许多玩家的长期表现却难以启齿——在绵延十多年的美股大牛市当中，他们不断摔着跟头。SYZ Asset Management替代投资部门负责人维吉涅尔（Cedric Vuignier）已经多年不曾投资这类产品了，原因是：“这种策略堪称是最耗费时间的。”“在最开始，要做出这种投资决定就很困难，而且有些时候，你甚至还来不及退场。”他补充道，比如2016年英国脱欧公投，以及2018年2月股市抛售时，巨大的账面利润都很快就消失了。根据CBOE Eurekahedge的尾端风险对冲基金指数，这些基金从2012年到2019年平均每年都在亏钱。虽然从2008年年初到现在，这个世界已经经历了三次大规模危机——全球金融危机、欧元区债务危机和当下的新冠疫情危机，但是这段时间之内，这些基金的平均表现依然是亏损24%。Penso Advisors是一家专业的衍生产品保护策略公司，25%的股权由对冲基金公司Brevan Howard持有，该公司首席投资官伯格曼（Ari Bergmann）指出，对保护策略的评估必须是“基于由盛而衰的整个市场周期，将漫长的低波动和股市上涨时间段也纳入考虑”。《金融时报》的数据库显示，36 South旗舰产品Kohinoor高达131%的回报率是该产品2011年创建以来最佳的年度表现。该基金的利润主要是来自于股票期权，以及货币和商品期权的下注。公司常务董事哈沃斯（Jerry Haworth）3月间曾经写道：“我们所有人都上了车，而车子目前正在高速驶向停滞膨胀地狱。”不过，在2020年之前，Kohinoor已经连续五年亏损了。如果有人在该基金创建时向其投资1000欧元，那么现在他手中的投资价值哪怕计入今年的巨大利润，也将只剩下685欧元。36 South拒绝对此发表评论。The Man 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