Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks

MarketWatch2021-03-17

It’s a simple logical error If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t. The same goes for bitcoin. ...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

fries
·2021-08-17
nice
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Turtlebizkit
·2021-06-27
Makes sense. [LOL]
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埃及妖后
·2021-03-17
I think they will invest in wallstreet and spend the money the 2H21 when border open. #revengespending #yolo
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投资不是一两天
·2021-03-17
Dumb comment. New money buy 170bil of stocks. Then we have 170bil freed up to buy other stocks... then whole market lifts up
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- fries:
  nice
  2021-08-17
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trojan1337
·2021-03-17
Lol. Then the graph should be a straight line instead. Since they assume same amount of money in, same amount out. And assuming there is no inflation and no cost of investment etc.
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Kles5537
·2021-03-17
This article theory is that the stock market will never rise or fall..... LOL
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wilo621
·2021-03-17
Stimulus not so stimulus to markets?
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kevinlaisq
·2021-03-17
Comment if we should buy more?
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Alvisgzw
·2021-03-17
aww mannn
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UTOtrader
·2021-03-17
Then goes to my pockets.....like me, follow me, follow me, like me
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","article_id":"1149837805","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"market_watch","name":"华尔街大事件"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI",".DJI":"道琼斯","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"为什么400亿美元的刺激计划不会进入股市","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"VTI":0.9},"content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":839574675,"gmtCreate":1629170132097,"gmtModify":1631892071055,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"htmlText":"nice&nbsp;","listText":"nice&nbsp;","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839574675","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":124130090,"gmtCreate":1624752145110,"gmtModify":1631891039073,"author":{"id":"3579141181798233","authorId":"3579141181798233","name":"Turtlebizkit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae37619873125a6a1b1b6c86916c6c23","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579141181798233","authorIdStr":"3579141181798233"},"htmlText":"Makes sense. [LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"Makes sense. [LOL]&nbsp;","text":"Makes sense. [LOL]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124130090","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324843622,"gmtCreate":1615986169466,"gmtModify":1703495943899,"author":{"id":"3577345324058629","authorId":"3577345324058629","name":"埃及妖后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdcb0ed51686b3b151c75086b3f68a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577345324058629","authorIdStr":"3577345324058629"},"htmlText":"I think they will invest in wallstreet&nbsp;and spend the money the 2H21 when border open. #revengespending #yolo","listText":"I think they will invest in wallstreet&nbsp;and spend the money the 2H21 when border open. #revengespending #yolo","text":"I think they will invest in wallstreet and spend the money the 2H21 when border open. #revengespending #yolo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324843622","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324171146,"gmtCreate":1615978624085,"gmtModify":1703495811146,"author":{"id":"3576138559006730","authorId":"3576138559006730","name":"投资不是一两天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36e77b5b6d744959b49fda03e290c69b","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576138559006730","authorIdStr":"3576138559006730"},"htmlText":"Dumb comment. New money buy 170bil of stocks. Then we have 170bil freed up to buy other stocks... then whole market lifts up","listText":"Dumb comment. New money buy 170bil of stocks. Then we have 170bil freed up to buy other stocks... then whole market lifts up","text":"Dumb comment. New money buy 170bil of stocks. Then we have 170bil freed up to buy other stocks... then whole market lifts up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324171146","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5551758,"gmtCreate":1629170143705,"gmtModify":1635149721476,"authorId":3555327644623732,"author":{"id":3555327644623732,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorId":3555327644623732,"name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":324171146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324127569,"gmtCreate":1615976494451,"gmtModify":1703495776275,"author":{"id":"3574916293171379","authorId":"3574916293171379","name":"trojan1337","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943a776c7741ee5cc4d67b3592fbb000","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574916293171379","authorIdStr":"3574916293171379"},"htmlText":"Lol. Then the graph should be a straight line instead. Since they assume same amount of money in, same amount out. And assuming there is no inflation and no cost of investment etc.&nbsp;","listText":"Lol. Then the graph should be a straight line instead. Since they assume same amount of money in, same amount out. And assuming there is no inflation and no cost of investment etc.&nbsp;","text":"Lol. Then the graph should be a straight line instead. Since they assume same amount of money in, same amount out. And assuming there is no inflation and no cost of investment etc.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324127569","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324129666,"gmtCreate":1615975837855,"gmtModify":1703495764980,"author":{"id":"3570098181257913","authorId":"3570098181257913","name":"Kles5537","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa48729605e1acd2304bbbabac219bae","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570098181257913","authorIdStr":"3570098181257913"},"htmlText":"This article theory is that the stock market will never rise or fall..... LOL","listText":"This article theory is that the stock market will never rise or fall..... LOL","text":"This article theory is that the stock market will never rise or fall..... LOL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324129666","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324112838,"gmtCreate":1615973920924,"gmtModify":1703495729158,"author":{"id":"3575929684948138","authorId":"3575929684948138","name":"wilo621","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575929684948138","authorIdStr":"3575929684948138"},"htmlText":"Stimulus not so stimulus to markets?","listText":"Stimulus not so stimulus to markets?","text":"Stimulus not so stimulus to markets?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324112838","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324111633,"gmtCreate":1615973663022,"gmtModify":1703495724464,"author":{"id":"3572874548548490","authorId":"3572874548548490","name":"kevinlaisq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329de1199f764a89b7cadf50308e183d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572874548548490","authorIdStr":"3572874548548490"},"htmlText":"Comment if we should buy more?","listText":"Comment if we should buy more?","text":"Comment if we should buy more?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324111633","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324195425,"gmtCreate":1615972041867,"gmtModify":1703495701649,"author":{"id":"3575175105051692","authorId":"3575175105051692","name":"Alvisgzw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e55dbf7031255f561a06b003aa8844","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575175105051692","authorIdStr":"3575175105051692"},"htmlText":"aww mannn","listText":"aww mannn","text":"aww mannn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324195425","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324195617,"gmtCreate":1615971985639,"gmtModify":1703495701302,"author":{"id":"3574547619690492","authorId":"3574547619690492","name":"UTOtrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82be6befb29ac8516e463638d3f659d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574547619690492","authorIdStr":"3574547619690492"},"htmlText":"Then goes to my pockets.....like me, follow me, follow me, like me","listText":"Then goes to my pockets.....like me, follow me, follow me, like me","text":"Then goes to my pockets.....like me, follow me, follow me, like me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324195617","repostId":1149837805,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149837805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615971667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149837805?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149837805","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts becau","content":"<p>It’s a simple logical error</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a82b8df4254390b71a4ce4488e33d21\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1092\"></p>\n<p>If you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.</p>\n<p>The same goes for bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.</p>\n<p>That,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.</p>\n<p>Recently Deutsche Bank&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.</p>\n<p>And the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.</p>\n<p>But it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)</p>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.</p>\n<p>Stimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.</p>\n<p>Every time a security is bought, one must be sold.</p>\n<p>Pretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple&nbsp;stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.</p>\n<p>Imagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.</p>\n<p>If investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).</p>\n<p>Er…$40 billion.</p>\n<p>And if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.</p>\n<p>It is not a coincidence that the figures match.</p>\n<p>I have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.</p>\n<p>None of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.</p>\n<p>The more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.</p>\n<p>Is that possible? Obviously.</p>\n<p>Is it likely? Maybe.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.</p>\n<p>You might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.</p>\n<p>For those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.</p>\n<p>Whether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy $40 billion in stimulus won’t go ‘into’ stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 17:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-40-billion-in-stimulus-wont-go-into-stocks-11615842577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149837805","content_text":"It’s a simple logical error\n\nIf you’re planning to take extra risk in your retirement accounts because of all the stimulus money about to be “poured into stocks”—don’t.\nThe same goes for bitcoin.\nMizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.\nThat,according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.\nRecently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.\nAnd the Wall Street hucksters made the same argument.\nBut it’s the old “money on the sidelines” fallacy. (Incidentally this raises, yet again, the question of why we don’t teach logic as Topic No. 1 in the public education system—a failure whose devastating costs are apparent every day.)\nIt’s a simple logical error, and it doesn’t matter who points it out—me, your broker, the Man in the Moon. It’s basic logic.\nStimulus money, or money “on the sidelines,” cannot “come into the market” for one very simple reason that gets ignored time and time and time again when this comes up.\nEvery time a security is bought, one must be sold.\nPretty obvious, right? If I buy your Apple stock, then you…er…have to sell it to me. I buy, you sell.\nImagine if you bought a house and tried to move in, and the previous owner figured he’d hang on to it, as well as banking the check.\nIf investors plunge $40 billion of their stimulus windfalls “into” stocks (and bitcoin), guess how much current investors will simultaneously “take out” of stocks (and bitcoin).\nEr…$40 billion.\nAnd if eager young investors rush out and pour $170 billion of their cash into these investments, current investors will…er…take $170 billion out.\nIt is not a coincidence that the figures match.\nI have $10, you have a share. I buy your share. Now I have your share…and you have my $10.\nNone of this means the stock market is a bad investment (or a good one), merely that this particular argument has no force.\nThe more interesting question is whether or not this hot stimulus money will spark even greater animal spirits among investors — especially among those who have the least experience of investing.\nIs that possible? Obviously.\nIs it likely? Maybe.\nOn the other hand, $40 billion is about 0.07% of the value of the U.S. stocks market and $170 billion is 0.3%, so you have to wonder how much this additional euphoria is going to be worth.\nYou might also reasonably wonder how much extra exuberance the market can handle, given — as the chart above shows — it looks pretty exuberant already.\nFor those following trends the more important short-term issue is that the U.S. market—as measured for example by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF—is (just) above its 50-day moving average and well above its 200 day moving average. So the trend remains bullish.\nWhether that remains the case as inflation forecasts break above 8-year highs, and the White House looks at a 25% hike in corporate tax rates, is going to be another matter.\nMeanwhile those of a curious disposition might wonder why, if new and inexperienced investors are so eager to plunge $40 billion or even $170 billion “into” the market, current (and possibly more experienced) investors are so willing to take the same amount out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}