腾讯阿里字节链接互通：谁将是大赢家？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

腾讯阿里字节链接互通：谁将是大赢家？

见实2021-09-14

随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？ 01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息： ...

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酒歌
·2021-09-15
686868
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xijian
·2021-09-15
双赢👍
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Terence_5890
·2021-09-15
👍
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1
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Tyliew
·2021-09-15
[暗中观察]
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Lydia758
·2021-09-14
阅
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etc卷商银行为主
·2021-09-14
字节跳动是赢家。
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微睡大叔
·2021-09-14
垂直行业的的头部公司将是赢家，而那作为搅局者靠对手阵营生态链扶持的老二将失去保护。
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epeizhi
·2021-09-14
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
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收起
- Henry1088:
  good
  2021-09-14
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616eafa8
·2021-09-14
[微笑] [微笑]
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3NTU5NDc0NA==&mid=2247528476&idx=1&sn=301d3d1c0ceee7e6100c65b0209a9607&chksm=fd22f98bca55709da708312d179f911f3bf6e62e392bdd6953b3e4f49968caf36d070b6ba644&scene=27#wechat_redirect><strong>见实</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。\n这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？\n01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴\n三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息：\n...</p>\n\n<a 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Ali byte link intercommunication: Who will be the big winner?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865225d73998dfed5defb66bb24e8f1d","symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9},"content_text":"随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。\n这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？\n01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴\n三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息：\n海量用户会将阿里平台上的商品链接、字节跳动（包含抖音）的内容链接分享过来，并因此带走巨大流量。\n我们尝试找到一些历史数据，来间接说明这些分享量、回流量的恐怖量级。\n\n这是2018年时，阿拉丁小程序指数对微信小程序平台上的各类信息，分别进行分享率和回流率大数据统计后，分享给《见实》的结论。\n以其中内容资讯为例，每100人阅读，就有2.6人分享到社交平台（分享率），每次分享带回6.91个流量（回流率）。每100人购买商品，会有0.68个用户分享商品链接至社交平台，每次分享带回1.70个流量。\n这些数据看起来一般，但如果乘以字节跳动和阿里巴巴的巨大体量，将会是一个让所有行业绝对仰望的数字。\n《见实》尝试从畅销书《小群效应》中找到一张图表来辅助说明。这根曲线通常用来解读：\n在现在社交网络中，最热门现象和服务会占据所在行业80%-90%以上用户目光。处于社交网络头部区域的数百家企业，会获得绝大部分社交红利，这是非常典型的“幂律曲线”。\n分享也是如此。记忆中，2015年前排名头部前三的企业，仅在一天时间中被用户分享到腾讯系的信息量，就超过1100万条。\n六年后的今天，三大平台互向对方开放后，字节跳动和阿里巴巴每天可不止1100万信息量分享到微信，真实量级或会数倍于此。这么庞大分享量，不论是乘以6.91回流率，还是1.70回流率，都足够开心。\n因为是免费的。\n因为对阿里和字节来说是额外、直接增长的。\n因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。尤其当这两大平台重大事件、重大活动（如双11、618）时，当这两大平台持续优化各种分享文案时，回流和转化数据更会以数倍上涨。\n无论如何，整个腾讯（尤其是微信），向外界平台分流的第一、第二名，一定会变成字节跳动（甚至可能抖音和今日头条分据前二）、阿里巴巴（如果拆分，则天猫和淘宝、淘特可能占据接下来的第三名到第五名）。\n不得不提一句：\n用户时间和注意力是有限的，不论是分享信息，还是点击阅读和参与活动。\n当阿里巴巴和字节跳动冲入到社交网络大盘子时，对于其他公司恐怕就不是那么开心了。因为蛋糕的最大份，被直接切走了。\n02、抖音电商和阿里交易额上扬\n刚才描述了社交网络（微信）回流量的庞大，我们特意没有提及社交对电商订单转化带来的影响，是因为这个数量同样诱人。\n几组基础数据可以先用来参考：\n- 大平均上，每两个分享到社交网络中的商品链接，就有一个会转化订单。\n作为对比，过去在社交电商类社区中，每100个浏览行为可以产生7次订单转化。\n- 按照腾讯2021年半年度财报所公布数据，小程序交易额继续以100%速度上涨，今年全年交易额或远超3.2万亿人民币。\n万亿规模是一个非常庞大的难以跃升的门槛，如快手最新财报就显示，其电商交易总额为人民币1454亿元。而近日行业传言，抖音电商将跨过一年万亿成交总额门槛。\n在越过万亿级别的平台中，除去微信小程序总交易额、抖音电商，还有拼多多。2020年度财报显示，该平台在当年交易总额（GMV）近1.67万亿，较2019年的10066亿元同比增长66%。\n淘宝联盟当下产生交易额暂时查询不到，2020年5月28日时，淘宝曾对外称，希望加速实现“三年内达到1万亿的目标”。\n当微信的链接大门打开，意味着抖音电商、阿里巴巴的交易额将会获得巨大增长。他们将有可能从小程序3.2万亿体量和拼多多1.67万亿体量中，直接撕走一大块。\n尤其是抖音电商，受益最大。\n03、抖音系APP下载受益\n娱乐系视频内容在社交网络中从来最受欢迎。从内容到下载的路径，也是最简单直接、最为通透。\n《见实》援引《小群效应》中的一张图，来说明这类APP下载转化比例：\n\n这张图并非是抖音的社交下载数据，而是来自此前某一款新创APP的后台数据截图。只是和抖音类似，同为娱乐属性。从表中可见，几乎是每一次分享，都会带来接近一次的下载和注册新增。\n在没有开放链接的情况下，抖音视频都顽强体现在无数微信群中。参照上述下载比例，大开放后字节系中包括抖音、西瓜等在内的APP下载增量、用户注册增量仍会继续增长。刚才一组话我们甚至可以直接复用：\n因为是免费的。\n因为对字节来说是额外、直接增长的。\n因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。尤其当有重大事件、优质爆款内容产生时，当字节系持续优化各种分享文案时，APP下载转化数据仍会继续上升。\n04、私域电商会受益\n如果链接网址大开放了，抖音和阿里巴巴会继续屏蔽“微信”这个关键词、依然禁止用户关注商家的微信吗？\n答案显然不会。业界正在感受着有关部门打通互联障碍的决心。如果是这样，那么私域电商会极大受益，企业会十分开心。\n过去不互通时，企业都在通过快递、红包等形式，顽强吸引着用户关注商家微信，沉淀到私域流量池中进行长期维护、持续复购转化。\n回顾历史，私域虽在微信生态落地生根，却是阿里巴巴商家催生出来的玩法。\n现在，当允许商家在阿里巴巴和抖音上关联微信或企业微信时，私域电商会继续增长。企业可以将更多财力和人力投入到私域运营中去，因此运营成本、广告成本反而会更低，利润上升。\n此外，关系链对电商持续施加的影响，注定了用户更加相信“信任”、“好友”。\n私域电商会获得更大发展。\n而且，现在抖音已经迅速布局私域，阿里巴巴重度布局私域各类基础设施的日子也不会远了。一旦阿里再进入，更多红利会释放给到各类品牌企业。\n微信小程序GMV虽然早期会受到一定影响，长期看，基础更坚实，交易额规模仍然会稳步增长。\n受益的，会是无数品牌企业。\n腾讯和微信也将大受益。更多品牌和用户之间的关系，将沉淀在微信私域中。\n同样是2021年度上半年财报中，腾讯几乎在猛夸私域，是因为借助私域这根线，腾讯在广告、云、智慧零售、支付等等一系列重要市场中，获得了极大提升。\n05、可能的平台调整\n动辄就是万亿电商规模，动辄就是每天数以千万级用户流动，三大平台之间怎么会不谨慎对待？\n首先是不必担心平台的小动作。这在有关部门的发声中早就严厉预警：\n“要求企业按照整改要求，务实推动分步骤、分阶段得到解决。下一步，一是加强行政指导，对整改不到位的企业督促落实；二是加强监督检查，通过多种方式确保问题整改到位；三是对整改不彻底的企业，处罚一批典型违规企业。”\n三大平台推出的可能的新规则，或会有几个：\n一是付费接口会诞生。超过一定调用数量的接口，需要付费，这对大平台来说其实是很小的支出，估计会欣然接受。\n二是在接口调用权限有明显分级。这其实已是现状，如许多新应用，当分享量在短时间内超过一定数量后，会被自然限制，直到第二天再度解锁。\n三是现有规则之下，许多标准和要求会由用户来掌控。如投诉量超过一定数量或比例后，接口调用权限会下降（比如每天分享次数由千万级下降到百万级、万级）；用户也可以要求去重显示某些链接，如某一类链接频繁出现在自己面前时，要求不再重复出现。\n四是三大平台对于灰色应用、灰色账号、灰色行为的打击，会越加严厉。\n最后简单看，三大平台各自受益不同角度。且打通后，在这些平台上的企业运营会变得更便利，不再需要想尽一切办法去规避平台禁令。运营成本下降，利润上升。跨平台运营这件事，或会变成一个新的大生意。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":882396832,"gmtCreate":1631660315526,"gmtModify":1631671810095,"author":{"id":"3558687475268784","authorId":"3558687475268784","name":"酒歌","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3558687475268784","idStr":"3558687475268784"},"htmlText":"686868","listText":"686868","text":"686868","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882396832","repostId":1149180242,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":882954154,"gmtCreate":1631657180778,"gmtModify":1631891433373,"author":{"id":"3577236380657634","authorId":"3577236380657634","name":"xijian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfa0e9c4df7c98f2b810b80a498f2c07","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577236380657634","idStr":"3577236380657634"},"htmlText":"双赢👍","listText":"双赢👍","text":"双赢👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882954154","repostId":1149180242,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":882951674,"gmtCreate":1631656476698,"gmtModify":1632807071308,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582091132450948","idStr":"3582091132450948"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882951674","repostId":1149180242,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":882991399,"gmtCreate":1631636918511,"gmtModify":1631890773013,"author":{"id":"3586350955637820","authorId":"3586350955637820","name":"Tyliew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/160e574cf1b0ade27622b7fde3d21d2b","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586350955637820","idStr":"3586350955637820"},"htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882991399","repostId":1149180242,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":882049748,"gmtCreate":1631633790684,"gmtModify":1631633790684,"author":{"id":"3552609846285590","authorId":"3552609846285590","name":"Lydia758","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28fe40b6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