重磅突发！央行宣布：全面降准，释放资金5300亿！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

重磅突发！央行宣布：全面降准，释放资金5300亿！

中国人民银行2022-04-15

4月15日，中国人民银行：中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。为加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的...

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跟着队长一起走
·2022-04-17
想贷款的都去找马云了！你们先是打压马云，结果经济撑不住了……
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神话者
·2022-04-17
[微笑]
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神话者
·2022-04-17
[微笑]
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Jet2017
·2022-04-16
降准还不如解封
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2
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A道法自然
·2022-04-15
音频17:35足以看出撰稿人不会精简扼要。啰哩巴嗦一大堆
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4
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pcczc
·2022-04-15
没啥用。。
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1
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收起
- 神话者:
  [微笑]
  2022-04-17
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大音仔
·2022-04-15
哈哈
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1
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保险王丁
·2022-04-15
毛毛雨
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天天呵呵呵
·2022-04-15
为什么不降息，因为银行都是亲儿子吗？再怎么降准，钱也到不了小企业手上
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6
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- 天天呵呵呵:
  房奴们可以少还点利息呀
  2022-04-15
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- Lasers:
  再怎么降息降准，钱都是国有企业
  2022-04-15
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吕得水
·2022-04-15
别人加息你降准，可以可以，支持。
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6
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- 夜袭女儿国:
  [捂脸][捂脸][捂脸]我理解能力差
  2022-04-19
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- 吕得水:
  我说的反话啊，大哥。
  2022-04-19
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- 夜袭女儿国:
  你以为是好事儿吗[捂脸][捂脸][捂脸]
  2022-04-15
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bailey3039
·2022-04-15
才来啊，估计这个力度周一也就冲高回落。。。。
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4
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到底什么昵称能用
·2022-04-15
货币是股市的晴雨表
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Hank0769
·2022-04-15
比预期要晚几天呀
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The central bank announced: a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing 530 billion funds!","themeId":"84c62e79472040d2bdca09e9e7f3c7f5","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/124aa719252058af15dba7ff3213ca07","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"4月15日，中国人民银行：中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。为加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%。中国人民银行将坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，继续实施稳健的货币政策，不搞大水漫灌，兼顾内外平衡，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，保持流动性合理充裕，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，激发市场活力，支持重点领域和薄弱环节融资，为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。降准对市场的影响为何降准？中信证券联席首席经济学家明明称，虽然未来一个季度MLF到期规模低，但是仍然存在税期高峰、政府债券集中发行、同业存单到期规模大等导致的流动性缺口，这些可能作为降准的触发因素。其次，从扩大新增贷款规模的角度来看，当前银行超储率再次下行，要进一步引导金融机构加大信贷投放和降低贷款利率，一方面需要弥补中长期资金缺口，另一方面需要降低负债成本。浙商证券首席经济学家李超认为，疫情加剧经济基本面的不确定性，经济下行压力加大，当前货币政策仍以稳增长为首要目标，发力重点是信贷，信贷是宽信用最有效手段，是推进企业扩大资本开支、防止金融空转的有效途径。中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛分析称，经济下行压力加大：一是脉冲式疫情的冲击对国内外需求和信心产生明显冲击。目前来看，国内散发式的疫情对于我国经济仍有明显影响，消费、地产、基建、收入等各个问题都面临较大压力。特别是在一季度经济数据即将公布的情况下，我们判断一季度数据可能低于市场预期。二是出口的动能可能回落，经济复苏的百度动能减弱，经济高点已过，海外复苏存在不利因素，且耐用品等符合我国出口的产品类型前期也略有透支。三是国内的房地产及其产业链面临流动性压力和违约冲击，全产业链增速快速下滑。降准落地有助于疫情期间助企纾困，提振实体经济，有利于股债企稳。招商基金点评称，4.13国常会指出，“鼓励拨备水平较高的大型银行有序降低拨备覆盖率”，并在货币政策方面强调“进一步加大金融对实体经济特别是受疫情严重影响行业和中小微企业、个体工商户的支持力度”。在疫情冲击之下，银行降低拨备覆盖率，有助于提高信贷资金对实体支持力度；同时对受疫情影响严重的行业和小微企业加大支持，具备明显的疫情助企纾困特征，也有助于宽信用。但需要注意的是，由于当前实体经济融资需求仍低迷、疫情对经济活力进行压制，在流动性宽松情况下，需要警惕资金空转和企业“借新还旧”，这可能一定程度上削弱货币宽松对实体经济的实际拉动效果。对于资本市场，历次降准后，上证综指和沪深300短期胜率较高，中长期胜率下滑但涨幅扩大；债市更能提前反映降准预期，降准落地后利率涨跌不一。因此，鉴于此次降准市场预期已经较为充分，预计降准对股票市场短期利好，对债市利好程度有限。新华基金评降准：对市场的有一定利好，短期受益稳增长的低估值方向预计将继续占优新华基金研究部总监、基金经理张霖表示，降准的核心目的是为了给疫情影响行业和中小微企业宽信用支持，降低其融资成本，从而稳定就业，这表明了监管层稳定经济的决心与态度，对市场的有一定利好，会改变市场运行节奏，但考虑到经济基本面对市场的影响，这不会改变市场总体运行方向。我们认为，2月末以来国内疫情散发和海外地缘政治冲突对于稳增长和企业利润分配格局都造成明显冲击，1-2月经济企稳的势头在3月没能延续，随着原油等资源品价格再次大幅上涨，短期企业利润分配格局也将恶化，一季度经济面临破5压力，往后看，财政发力和社融回升都较为确定，地产也有望向19年水平修复，变数主要在于病毒变异对封锁要求越来越高，对经济冲击更加剧烈，上述宏观层面变化都对市场形成压制。在二、三季度消费、基建受疫情制约，地产投资又难以快速复苏的背景下，政府稳增长缺少明显“抓手”。因此即使疫情过后，失业率显现拐点，就业恢复的速度仍有可能不及预期。而一旦年内政府达成5.5%的就业目标存在困难，央行可能通过MLF降息托底经济、促进就业，暂时搁置中美利差倒挂带来的汇率及资本外流风险。由于政策面正在积极应对经济运行面临的更大不确定性和挑战，短期受益稳增长的低估值方向预计将继续占优，而成长方向的超配机会还需等待疫情有效控制和经济再次企稳。降准对于债券市场影响相对有限 未来权益市场可能迎结构性反弹行情长城基金固定收益投资部总经理邹德立表示，当前在股票市场表现疲软、地产销售持续低迷，特别是多地疫情局部爆发的情况下，经济增长遭遇较大压力。在稳增长、宽信用的背景下，3-4月份信贷投放进一步提高，此时通过降准投放流动性支持信贷投放，是比较合适的时间窗口。他指出，从历史情况来看，降准操作不会影响央行对于是否降息的决策。而本周国常会关于“降低综合融资成本”的提法更多需要降息操作才能够实现，而且疫情冲击经济增长预期，我们判断还会有可能进一步调降MLF和LPR利率。降息比较好的时间窗口在二季度，而四月份处在美联储加息空窗期或许是更好的选择。在当前货币宽松预期比较充分的情景下，降准对于债券市场影响相对有限，国常会提到降准后十年期国债仅下行2BP左右，关键在于政策利率是否调降。如果MLF利率调降，则债券市场迎来重大利好，债券利率将进一步下行。今年总体上，债券市场上半年因为疫情扩散带来经济增长压力而看涨，下半年可能因为刺激经济复苏而看跌。权益市场方面，经过前两年总体上的大涨后，或许应当降低对全年投资回报的期待值，但目前应处于政策底和市场底的阶段，未来有可能迎来结构性反弹行情。股市影响据兴证策略，降准落地有望提振短期市场情绪，历次降准落地后一周市场上涨概率较高，创业板指与沪深300上涨概率均达六成；而从涨跌幅中位数看，降准落地后一周创业板指表现优于沪深300，风格上成长和消费优于周期和金融。债市影响据广发证券固收团队，对债市影响：流动性难更松，预期或转向宽信用降准对利率的影响，主要是两个层面：一是流动性层面。降准通过流动性对债市生的影响，最终要看降准后，隔夜资金利率稳定在什么水平，是1.5%、1.8%还是2.0%。资金利率通过杠杆资金成本，直接对债市利率产生影响。二是预期层面。降准或降息等政策落地后，债市投资者关注后续是否还有降息，这往往决定长端利率下行的空间。我们预计在美联储快速收紧货币政策的外部约束下，为了兼顾外部平衡，降准之后短期内下调MLF和逆回购利率的可能性有所下降。待降准落地之后，需要警惕债市演绎“利多出尽”的逻辑，债市的主线可能从宽货币预期兑现向宽信用落地过渡。除了降准，还会降息吗？市场关心的是，除了降准，还会降息吗？15日，有报道称，近日市场利率定价自律机制召开会议，鼓励中小银行存款利率浮动上限下调10个基点(BP)左右；这一要求应并非强制，但做出调整的银行或将对其宏观审慎评估(MPA)考核有利。东吴证券分析称，等得来的降准等不来的降息。现阶段通过降息促进实体融资成本的下行、推动新增信贷扩张的可能性较弱。根据央行一季度例会和国常会的表述，现阶段保证“流动性合理充裕”是近期央行公开市场操作的主导思想。在美国CPI突破8.5%且尚未见顶的情况下，美联储紧缩步伐将进一步加快。在这一预期下，海外其他央行也快速跟随紧缩，如英国、加拿大。比较下，除中美利差倒挂外，中国对欧盟、英国、德国的10年期国债利差均在迅速缩窄。如何维护我国币值稳定、形成资金洼地是阻碍我国降息的主要掣肘。通过释放LPR改革潜力的方法降低贷款利率和企业融资成本，应是现阶段货币政策的主要发力方式。根据4月13日（周三）国常会的指导，“鼓励拨备水平较高的大型银行有序降低拨备覆盖率，适时运用降准等货币政策工具”意在释放更多资金促进银行信贷投放，同时促进银行资金成本的降低。通过压缩LPR加点部分的方式降低贷款利率、引导银行向企业让利是当前政策的主要发力点。若今日央行实施普降，预计4月LPR报价将出现下行。植信投资首席经济学家连平分析称，当前不具备直接降息的条件。在美联储持续加息预期强烈、中美利差出现倒挂、国际局势动荡等外部复杂情况下，我国直接下调政策利率可能会加大资本流出与人民币贬值压力，需要相对谨慎。当前我国货币政策仍将坚持“以我为主”，但在外需减弱、东南亚制造业恢复、西方对俄制裁等可能波及我国出口之时，降息可能会加重我国内外部平衡的压力。从政策效果来看，降准利于商业银行资金成本下降，可能会进一步推动LPR小幅下调，一定程度上能够推动市场利率下行，但如同时降息，“双降”的政策叠加效果可能会过大，容易推升杠杆率，增大金融风险。招商基金分析称，降准后可能再降息。以往国常会提降准，大部分情况下会落实，慢则 1-2 周，快则 2-3 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