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Brent crude rose 8% to $106 a barrel.Oil advanced above $100 a barrel as Russia cast doubts on the progress of current peace talks with Ukraine and investors weigh the absence of Russian barrels in a tight market.

A Kremlin spokesman said a report of major progress in talks over Ukraine was “wrong,” but that discussions will continue. The war has severely disrupted Russian oil flows, and the International Energy Agency predicted output from the key OPEC+ member will decline by about a quarter in April. Three cargoes were dropped from Russia’s planned March loadings.

Global benchmark Brent is trading near $106 a barrel and has swung by more than $5 intraday for 16 consecutive sessions -- the longest such run ever -- as the oil market has been gripped by huge gyrations.

“To say that oil prices have been volatile recently would be an understatement,” Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote in a note, boosting their forecast for third-quarter Brent prices by $20 to $120 a barrel. “It will likely become progressively more difficult for Russia to maintain its seaborne exports in the coming months.”