A股暴跌，这是一轮真实利空_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

A股暴跌，这是一轮真实利空

原来是凌乐2020-02-03

我们想到了2020年是艰难的一年，却没有想到会如此艰难，武汉疫情未灭，湖南禽流感再起，成都深夜地震，猪肉价格仍在高位，鸡肉价格眼见又要冲天，中国面临着几十年来最大的困境，每一天暴涨的确诊数据都标志着一个家庭的崩溃，这些都是我们的同胞，都是我们的亲人，它们正在遭受苦难，我们也正在与他们一起共度苦难。毫无疑问，这一轮疫情对中国经济会产生巨大影响，首当其冲的便是服务业，所有人与人接触的行业都将受到重创...

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天天开心一点点
·2020-02-04
讲的非常好，可惜听到的消息晚了。
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黑色枪骑
·2020-02-04
不错
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TOM来自地球
·2020-02-04
6666666
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渔火
·2020-02-03
难
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浩hhh
·2020-02-03
说的话太矛盾
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-02-03
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两颗小虎牙
·2020-02-03
呵呵，不靠谱的小编。只是说不让抄底，有些办法可以回避风险把风险降低怎么不说呢？如果不说，怀疑你的专业度！反正我是知道方法。
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-02-03
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Tailei
·2020-02-03
呵呵，让不要抄底，让不要乱抛，你两边都说了，别人还说啥？不是涨就是跌！有时候会横盘，正确吗？
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4
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阿美力加
·2020-02-03
这才刚刚开始呢，疫情到三四月才是爆发期[难过]
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跟着队长一起走
·2020-02-03
明天大概率更横盘震荡调整
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Wss
·2020-02-03
完蛋啦
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helengu
·2020-02-03
所以就算要贪婪，也要克制一下，机会有的是
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1
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大与
·2020-02-03
说的漂亮
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2
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雪碧两块五
·2020-02-03
理性分析
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老龙_0350
·2020-02-03
很到位
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1
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-02-03
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飞雪T
·2020-02-03
呵呵，韭菜思维。
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1
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yucme
·2020-02-03
所以提醒各位，2月份不要轻易抄底，你的每一次抄底，可能都在半山腰。
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天生废材
·2020-02-03
阴跌，然后底部盘整三年起，抢反弹会变成长线
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我就是阿硕
·2020-02-03
谈要面子，15亿特朗普，不如我国那几个人，他们可以为了面子，让其他十几亿人负债累累！[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
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2
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时间与复利的神奇
·2020-02-03
已阅
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Mr_2
·2020-02-03
洗，继续洗，实体经济严重受创，业绩受损，支撑点在哪，信心在哪，外资洗盘，外资也不是什么时候都在洗盘，今年外盘行情都不确定，地主家余粮多不多？不破不立，就怕为了面子工程的阴跌
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news.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90b0f5d1ccad7d7cd16fbfaeb5cbc0dd","symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.6},"content_text":"我们想到了2020年是艰难的一年，却没有想到会如此艰难，武汉疫情未灭，湖南禽流感再起，成都深夜地震，猪肉价格仍在高位，鸡肉价格眼见又要冲天，中国面临着几十年来最大的困境，每一天暴涨的确诊数据都标志着一个家庭的崩溃，这些都是我们的同胞，都是我们的亲人，它们正在遭受苦难，我们也正在与他们一起共度苦难。\n毫无疑问，这一轮疫情对中国经济会产生巨大影响，首当其冲的便是服务业，所有人与人接触的行业都将受到重创，全球投资者也在等待着A股暴跌开盘。今天A股创历史的跌停开盘。\n\n本文我们将弄懂两个问题，第一是疫情对全国经济影响到底有多大，哪些行业将大跌；第二是股市开盘之后，哪些板块将被错杀，哪些板块能够迅速恢复。\n01、这是一轮真实利空\n首先，这是一轮长期影响，并不像之前的炒作一般只影响股市一两天就会出现反弹，与之参考的是2003年的非典，但这一轮疫情对经济的影响远远超过了非典，2003年中国GDP总额仅为13万亿，而2019年，接近100万亿，单单是湖北省一年的GDP也超过4万亿，现在中国经济体量十倍于非典时期。\n其次，新型冠状病毒的传染性更强，据世界卫生组织（WHO）的数据，SARS大约用了四个月，确诊患者人数才超过1000。但从武汉市卫健委首次披露疫情至今，三十天左右确诊病例数已经破万，并且确诊数量还在指数级增长，根本没有放缓的迹象。\n\n第三，非典的好转一方面是有效隔离，另一方面是天气转暖，自然界消灭了SARS病毒，而新型冠状病毒爆发于1月，现在也才二月初，离4、5月份还有两三个月，对市场的影响还充满了未知，唯一知道的是，短期毫无好转的可能，只能期待感染增速有所下滑。\n此轮疫情会影响中国半年以上的经济，又有多少企业能扛过半年亏损呢？现金流成为当前最要命的东西。\n02、GDP将失速\n在大型危机面前，没有一个行业能够独善其身，企业长时间停工，一方面影响员工薪资，另一方面影响上下游产业链，情况严重的话会形成企业倒闭潮，特别是民营中小企业，它们融资能力弱，抗风险能力更低。\n现在已经不是疫情会不会导致企业连续倒闭的问题了，而是市场正在发生，应当如何应对？因为春节假期和爆发速度太快的原因，疫情对经济的影响没有体现在数据之上，2月份经济衰退数据指标将全面爆发，别说2月份GDP增速降低，你就算说GDP出现负增长我都相信。\n服务业全面瘫痪，企业停工、人们出门减少消费量降低，我们依靠什么来维持经济指标呢？是依靠去年价格冲天的猪肉？还是湖南已经出现的鸡瘟？市场已经多家券商预测2020年一季度GDP增速在3%—4%之间，就别给我预测今年会不会破5了，咱们先谈谈能不能保4。\n在经济短期加速下滑的背景下，任何的抄底都是高位搏命，你以为2900是短期底部，短期情绪会让你见识到2500点的威力。\n利润变化是区分虚假概念和真实概念的唯一标准，疫情导致人们不愿意去电影院，对传媒板块是真实利空；全国旅游行业整体关停，对旅游板块是真实利空；航空、铁路停运，对交通运输板块是真实利空；这些板块的下跌都是真实且短期难以回暖的，股价一旦下跌，短期就很难上涨，因为他们本就只值这个价。\n每一次疫情都是一次周期，回顾2003年SARS时期，股市同样出现了暴跌，暴跌之后就是漫长的调整，整体行情一直持续到11月底，一整年的行情毫无起色。\n\n2020年也会如此吗？\n我们以最乐观的情况预估，假如2月份确诊病例增速降低，3月份确诊病例开始减少，4月份全面控制住，5月份不再新增病例，7月份全面解除疫情风险，那么股市的转折月就是在三月，而不是开盘后的二月。\n所以提醒各位，2月份不要轻易抄底，你的每一次抄底，可能都在半山腰。\n03、哪些板块将被错杀\n股票投资，最重要的是冷静，面对这种级别的利空，叠加今天大跌，报道利空的新闻今天会频繁刷屏，甚至会登陆微博热搜，给投资者一种绝望的错觉，就如文初所言，中国当前的经济体量不可同日而语，中国当前的抗风险能力也不可同日而语。\n你因恐慌抛出的筹码，转眼就可能成为外资抄底的本钱；你因对经济的恐慌发送的朋友圈，转眼就成为庄家洗盘个股的下酒菜。\n正视风险，合理评估风险是每一个凌乐粉必须具备的能力。疫情只能短期降低人们的消费意愿，不会降低中国积累多年的消费能力；疫情只能影响企业的短期现金状况，不会阻挡金融开放的步伐；疫情能让部分工厂停止开工，不会摧毁中国建立多年的工业基础。\n大多数疫情对社会的影响都是中短期的，长期来看，磨难使人奋进，痛苦使人团结，一旦疫情过去，中国经济会快速回到高度发展的正轨，一季度GDP数据虽然难看，全年保5还是问题不大。\n更何况2020年是中国全面小康之年，是邓小平百年规划的第一个大计完成之年，中国复兴的道路不会因为一场疫情而中止。\n外资还在抄底A股，资本市场供给侧改革还在持续，央行降息维稳，证监会连夜叫停融券卖出业务，都是在呵护股市，全市场都在等待A股暴跌开盘，冷静的投资者却在默默盘点哪些板块会被错杀，出现了抄底机会。这一轮下跌行情注定是一个黄金坑，这个坑可能会连砸一个月，也有可能会持续半年，但注定在短期内填补。\n回顾非典时期，很多板块都有下跌，其中消费者服务、医药和零售板块与疫情直接关联，其中最让人疑惑的就是医药板块，常理来说，一次大的疫情会让医药股获利颇丰，为什么在非典时期医药板块不涨反跌呢？\n\n答案是，股票投资往往是投资预期，只有提前埋伏之人才能获取最大收益，当疫情发展到现在的局面，已经错过了最佳投资时机，最好不要再去投资什么医药类个股，年前，我在《疫情投资概念》这篇文章中详细讲解了口罩投资，错过之后，就不再有上车机会。\n经过历史多次疫情的验证，新型病毒短期内都不会出现真正的特效药，所有的抑制、有效的药物最终都无法转换为企业业绩，就比如前两天刷屏的双黄莲口服液，还有2003年妇炎洁抑制非典，都是市场的谣言与炒作，巧妙地是这两次都是上海药物所发出来的，套路一模一样，如果你听信这些外部信息炒股，你也是被收割的对象。\n但是非典时期和现在的疫情对股市影响有本质性区别，第一个区别就是2003年时互联网并不发达，信息传递很慢，股票市场也很小，经历过那时的老股民都知道，市场炒作与非典并没有太大的关联性，一味参考毫无价值，我们还需要从逻辑的角度看看哪些板块容易被错杀。\n我认为主要分为以下三类：\n一、金融、地产类\n说实话，金融和经济虽然相互共生，但在中国的经济体制之下，金融和经济有些割裂，经济的风险无法有效的传播到金融体系，相反，经济体系出了问题，监管层还是通过放水、货币刺激、基建来拉动经济，反倒再次助推了金融的泡沫，相关金融类公司也会直接受益；\n另外，央行放水无形之中又降低了房贷利率，大家嘴上喊着房价要跌，核心城市房价下跌又开始抢着购买，而且房地产的会计核算周期长，今年的业绩需要第二年的年报才能反映出来，今年无论疫情对经济的影响有多大，这些金融、地产类公司的业绩都不会下滑，它们将是今年A股中的定海神针，跌幅最小，也会最快反弹。\n二、科技股、国产软件\n今天的大跌可能会让很多人忘记了年前炒作的主线，是科技股和国产软件替代，2018、2019两年中国遭到了外贸的恶意压制，只能走上自主发展的道路，目前这条路仍在继续，在大盘整体下跌的背景下，市场将面临无概念可炒的尴尬，随后科技类个股会率先反弹。\n我的意思当然不是现在就买入科技类个股，而是密切观察，等待它们出现止跌信号，至于如何判断是否止跌，多看看我的历史文章就懂了。\n三、万年不变的零售\n为什么巴菲特独爱零售？为什么零售概念指数能走出长牛行情？\n因为有人的地方就有购物，疫情只是让线下零售转移到了线上，而且零售将是灾后恢复最快的产业，股价也理所应当的最快反弹，如果这一轮下跌让部分优质零售股大幅下跌，就是市场给你的一个捡钱机会。\n你问我什么才是优质零售股？你就回忆一下日常逛超市最常见的品牌和每天不得不用的产品就行，张口就来的品牌，最优质。\n最后，今天开盘下跌之后应当如何操作？\n我认为这取决于你持仓的个股所在的板块，影视、餐饮、旅游、服务业，你直接按现价的八折计算，下跌20%都算轻松的，我觉得这些板块甚至可以按7折入手，没跌破7折，就等它半年报公布，一定不会让你失望。\n如果你持仓的是疫情影响较小的工业股或者上述三大板块股，持仓等待即可。\n另外，此时应当关注一下涨速榜，开盘之后市场会开始冷静，网络游戏、电子竞技、云办公、云游戏、线上教育和超级品牌等板块，也会第一个反弹，需要你密切关注哦。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":915829719,"gmtCreate":1580789071631,"gmtModify":1704342299259,"author":{"id":"3458087268579348","authorId":"3458087268579348","name":"天天开心一点点","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dcf4241e52eb8646011e2ac5810f8d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3458087268579348","authorIdStr":"3458087268579348"},"htmlText":"讲的非常好，可惜听到的消息晚了。","listText":"讲的非常好，可惜听到的消息晚了。","text":"讲的非常好，可惜听到的消息晚了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915829719","repostId":1141330985,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":915865595,"gmtCreate":1580787702317,"gmtModify":1704342293078,"author":{"id":"3531380407397658","authorId":"3531380407397658","name":"黑色枪骑","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3531380407397658","authorIdStr":"3531380407397658"},"htmlText":"不错","listText":"不错","text":"不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"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