中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同

陈曦固收研究2021-09-22

近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。第二，都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的...

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嗯哈
·2021-09-24
本质区别是所有人买单
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刀锋战士阿尔法
·2021-09-22
通篇都是管制措施！意思是只要管制了，什么都不会发生？我等着看那一天！
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多也逍遥空也逍遥
·2021-09-22
雷曼当初自己也是这么跟投资者说的，美国不存在雷曼时刻
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Hsuhsuhsu
·2021-09-22
看看政策和经济规律谁强
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兄得莫冲动
·2021-09-22
因为中国限制房价下跌，就这点美国大呼：还是你不要脸
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13
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一天翻一番
·2021-09-22
2015叫股灾，还异动，哈哈哈
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3
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antonyye
·2021-09-22
事实恰恰相反！居然有人敢这么出来说话，**至极…。
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4
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Jamesong
·2021-09-22
恒大有背景！
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Jamesong
·2021-09-22
差不多！
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原来是小王啊
·2021-09-22
中国居民部门杠杆早在18年就已经比拼美日了
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accelerate
·2021-09-22
中国的居民加杠杆并不严重六个荷包[笑哭]
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2
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gxlzzzkJames
·2021-09-22
迷惑人的文章！恒大倒闭牵连到的银行和企业影响不亚于雷曼兄弟！只要大盘持续两天反弹行情未能收到中阳以上，股民信心不足接下来的这周美国经济利空消息出来一起发酵，那就不亚于雷曼兄弟了！拭目以待！
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3
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赵与瑄
·2021-09-22
这不是欲盖弥彰么…
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2
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ewangteoh
·2021-09-22
所以结论是恒大不是问题，有钱能解决的问题就不是问题了。
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收起
- koolgal:
  Well said. 👍😊
  2021-10-01
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GSL123
·2021-09-22
我问过好多人，明年会不会金融危机，大盘会不会暴跌。金融从业人员，他们说，他们的职业不能发表观点言论。其他人有的说会，有的说不会，春江水暖鸭先知。不管什么大的雷，都会有人提前有感知的。有大金融从业的朋友，可以跟他们聊聊天，绝对有新的认知。
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1
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菩提本无树明镜亦非台
·2021-09-22
搞笑
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1
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菜鸟毅哥
·2021-09-22
通篇主观观点，完全没有数据支撑[微笑]
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5
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Memphisk
·2021-09-22
是不是雷曼不是你凤凰网决定的，看结果吧……
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Four differences between Evergrande and Lehman","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5e007bc791119b255722c2e863e3ee","symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9},"content_text":"近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二，都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的影响往往较小，例如2000年美国互联网泡沫，中国2015年股市异动，而债务危机的影响则要大得多，例如98年东南亚外债危机，08年美国次贷危机等。\n第三，都表现出传染性。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应，恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩，已经多家地方房企出现问题。\n雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点，雷曼倒掉之后，美国陷入全面的危机之中。\n既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似，是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国？\n我们认为，中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。\n我们认为，恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别：\n第一，雷曼背后是居民加杠杆，而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆，对经济的影响完全不同。08年美国房价下跌，居民被迫去杠杆，进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃，消费能力急剧下降，是地产危机转为经济危机的根源；恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆，中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。\n中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房，但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制，与美国次贷完全不可同日而语，中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。\n第二，雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌，导致抵押品快速贬值，继而出现全面危机；中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。对于房价上涨压力大的地区，确实政策非常严格，而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区，则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下，房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态，甚至是冻结状态，不会触发抵押品贬值危机。中国出问题仅限于房企，而不是押品，这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。\n第三，中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验，包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比，甚至有的比恒大更大，处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中，能够避免雷曼重演的关键是：切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债，也能通过政府介入切断传染性（不是政府兜底，而是切断传染）。\n第四，银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节，中国的银行大多数具有国企背景，或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑，很容易出现挤兑（看房企出问题，于是全面抽贷断贷），而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候，中国的银行体系可以大量放贷，还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷，足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。\n综上所述，我们认为，恒大并不是中国版雷曼，两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债，则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破，而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。\n对于中国经济和资本市场，我们认为：\n1、房地产调控大方向不会变化，2020疫情后-2021年上半年，房地产是中国经济的重要支撑，而现在开始，房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。\n2、中国房地产行业不可能消失，即使是发达国家，房地产业仍然占有重要位置，因此，如果房地产行业整体错杀，特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀，则其股、债均存在投资机会。\n3、对于股市的影响，与美国2008年不可同日而语。港股更多的受到外资影响，不了解中国国情，外资误判是正常的；而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌，则是买入机会。\n4、对于债券市场，雷曼时刻之后，美债收益率上行，有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况，这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况，避险避到只认现金，而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为，中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难，就算真的出现避险，中国央行也会保证流动性，类似包商、永煤之后，导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。\n我们认为，恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面：\n一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会；\n二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响，这将导致经济下行压力加大，在内需本就不足的情况下，货币宽松可能性上升（我们维持10-11月存在降息可能）。\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”，维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变，同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":861959093,"gmtCreate":1632450246212,"gmtModify":1632450246212,"author":{"id":"136230610907005","authorId":"136230610907005","name":"嗯哈","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"136230610907005","authorIdStr":"136230610907005"},"htmlText":"本质区别是所有人买单","listText":"本质区别是所有人买单","text":"本质区别是所有人买单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861959093","repostId":1138740934,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869558853,"gmtCreate":1632308498372,"gmtModify":1632308498372,"author":{"id":"3460110757345179","authorId":"3460110757345179","name":"刀锋战士阿尔法","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b42e712665aa340c451811db44011a24","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3460110757345179","authorIdStr":"3460110757345179"},"htmlText":"通篇都是管制措施！意思是只要管制了，什么都不会发生？我等着看那一天！","listText":"通篇都是管制措施！意思是只要管制了，什么都不会发生？我等着看那一天！","text":"通篇都是管制措施！意思是只要管制了，什么都不会发生？我等着看那一天！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869558853","repostId":1138740934,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869520817,"gmtCreate":1632306425439,"gmtModify":1632306425439,"author":{"id":"3493441798768749","authorId":"3493441798768749","name":"多也逍遥空也逍遥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af976fedfce660b729e97606c74e6e7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493441798768749","authorIdStr":"3493441798768749"},"htmlText":"雷曼当初自己也是这么跟投资者说的，美国不存在雷曼时刻","listText":"雷曼当初自己也是这么跟投资者说的，美国不存在雷曼时刻","text":"雷曼当初自己也是这么跟投资者说的，美国不存在雷曼时刻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869520817","repostId":1138740934,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869256490,"gmtCreate":1632296700410,"gmtModify":1632296700410,"author":{"id":"45264005313516","authorId":"45264005313516","name":"Hsuhsuhsu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/32f400440a653fc5e30475aa355e8f3a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"45264005313516","authorIdStr":"45264005313516"},"htmlText":"看看政策和经济规律谁强","listText":"看看政策和经济规律谁强","text":"看看政策和经济规律谁强","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869256490","re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六个荷包[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869299921","repostId":1138740934,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869677985,"gmtCreate":1632286919547,"gmtModify":1632286919547,"author":{"id":"3560304933017657","authorId":"3560304933017657","name":"gxlzzzkJames","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c255fce56753388104a6b43570c79f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560304933017657","authorIdStr":"3560304933017657"},"htmlText":"迷惑人的文章！恒大倒闭牵连到的银行和企业影响不亚于雷曼兄弟！只要大盘持续两天反弹行情未能收到中阳以上，股民信心不足接下来的这周美国经济利空消息出来一起发酵，那就不亚于雷曼兄弟了！拭目以待！","listText":"迷惑人的文章！恒大倒闭牵连到的银行和企业影响不亚于雷曼兄弟！只要大盘持续两天反弹行情未能收到中阳以上，股民信心不足接下来的这周美国经济利空消息出来一起发酵，那就不亚于雷曼兄弟了！拭目以待！","text":"迷惑人的文章！恒大倒闭牵连到的银行和企业影响不亚于雷曼兄弟！只要大盘持续两天反弹行情未能收到中阳以上，股民信心不足接下来的这周美国经济利空消息出来一起发酵，那就不亚于雷曼兄弟了！拭目以待！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869677985","repostId":1138740934,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869673187,"gmtCreate":1632285990949,"gmtModify":1632286259105,"author":{"id":"3580099959686695","authorId":"3580099959686695","name":"赵与瑄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f63457d2dcb938ff0771e87d4f152895","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580099959686695","authorIdStr":"3580099959686695"},"htmlText":"这不是欲盖弥彰么…","listText":"这不是欲盖弥彰么…","text":"这不是欲盖弥彰么…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869673187","repostId":1138740934,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869679684,"gmtCreate":1632285921748,"gmtModify":1632801479924,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"htmlText":"所以结论是恒大不是问题，有钱能解决的问题就不是问题了。","listText":"所以结论是恒大不是问题，有钱能解决的问题就不是问题了。","text":"所以结论是恒大不是问题，有钱能解决的问题就不是问题了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869679684","repostId":1138740934,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6055556,"gmtCreate":1633052107770,"gmtModify":1633052107770,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":869679684,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Well said. 👍😊","text":"Well said. 👍😊","html":"Well said. 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