美股虽弱，但难阻A股反转_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美股虽弱，但难阻A股反转

格隆汇2022-10-10

作者：樊继拓等相比1-4月的调整，8月底以来，投资者对海外风险的关注度更高，认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险（疫情、房地产下行）虽然依然存在，但是下行的速度慢很多，而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年，伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市，A股也是大级别熊市，但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年，美股风险可能只是个...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

包子山孙悟空
·2022-10-10
写这篇稿子的人是被逼的吧
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meme股探测器
·2022-10-10
发这帖子是0.5元一条吧？
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1
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收起
- AAA小飞飞:
  不收费吧？
  2022-10-10
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一天翻一番
·2022-10-10
醉生梦死哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈
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巴韭隆
·2022-10-10
让你们不懂，up主用心良苦，用文章举例说明美股对A股影响越来越弱，所以A股不行主要是A股自己不行，很美国没啥关系。将来美股反弹，也和大A不挨着。我们走的独立行情。
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崔催摧
·2022-10-10
再特么唱多报警了。
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3
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逍遥_0503
·2022-10-10
作者自己都不相信
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2
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DMW
·2022-10-10
怎么屏蔽这类消息推送？
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2
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Blackjack2k
·2022-10-10
作者自己相信吗？
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尛田
·2022-10-10
这种文章水准真低，怎么会推送过来
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精益投资数据分析
·2022-10-10
越来越低，回到2910点
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Wade_kuang
·2022-10-10
用心良苦地说反话辛苦了
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1
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买崩牛股
·2022-10-10
打脸可快了
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2
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呆呆兽之王
·2022-10-10
**言论
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第二张脸
·2022-10-10
纸老虎这个说的真是词穷了
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煎雪落雨
·2022-10-10
确实赢麻了
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5e10d411
·2022-10-10
‌[笑哭] ‌打这么多字累不累，港股从2.2万点就天天扯反弹，现在都17000了。。。我选择持有美股，因为早晚会涨回来。。
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等相比1-4月的调整，8月底以来，投资者对海外风险的关注度更高，认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险（疫情、房地产下行）虽然依然存在，但是下行的速度慢很多，而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年，伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市，A股也是大级别熊市，但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年，美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。目前A股的经济、投资者仓位、估值、汇率环境非常类似2019年8月初的低点，后续可能会再次出现V型反转，建议投资者积极做多。配置上我们认为，市场的风格正在往价值转变，这一转变至少是季度的，甚至有很大的概率演变为年度的风格转变。（1）国内风险可控，投资者担心美股的风险。相比较1-4月的调整，8月底以来，投资者对海外风险的关注度更高。国内的经济风险（疫情、房地产下行）虽然依然存在，但是下行的速度慢很多，而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。美国经济所面临的利率大幅上行、通胀波动大、经济衰退等风险，很多都是十年甚至几十年一遇的，这已经成为影响A股反转的最后障碍。从美股的调整幅度来看，2010到2021年，除了疫情期间，其他历次经济小级别衰退（可以理解为软着陆），美股调整幅度均不超过20%。而年初以来，标普500最大回撤幅度高达25%，基本上已经意味着资本市场认为，美国经济很难软着陆。现在的关键是，对A股的影响会有多大？2000-2002年和2007-2008年，伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市，A股也是大级别熊市。2000-2002年，标普500最大跌幅-49%，上证综指最大跌幅-41%；2007-2008年，标普500最大跌幅-57%，上证综指最大跌幅-72%，这次甚至A股的跌幅更大。（2）但这一次中美股市所处的估值位置完全不同，美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。之所以2000-2002、2007-2008年，A股比美股调整更剧烈，背后很重要的原因是2000年底和2007年底，A股本身处在估值泡沫化的顶点，但这一次A股股市是处在历史很低的位置。更低的估值意味着，虽然美股调整对A股的负面影响还在，但已经非常小了。从2009-2021年美国历次小级别熊市对A股影响幅度，已经能看到类似的结论了。2011、2015、2018和2020年，美国经历过4次小级别熊市，前两次恰好是A股估值处在高位，后两次A股估值处在低位，后两次对A股的影响非常小。（3）美国经济会影响出口，但这是滞后指标。从基本面的角度，投资者担心如果海外衰退，可能会导致出口下滑，从而压制国内的经济。我们认为，这一影响肯定是存在的。但由于2000年以来，中国经济的历次周期都是早于欧美的，所以出口大多是经济的滞后指标。经济下滑的时候，出口滞后下滑，经济企稳的时候，出口滞后企稳。股市的企稳主要取决于国内经济的韧性，随着稳增长的推进，房地产政策正在不断宽松，信贷社融的改善虽然有所反复，但大方向上，依然是在改善的。（4）策略观点：可能会再次V型反转。7月以后，经济预期再次回落，导致上证50等指数最先开始走弱，8月下旬开始，由于疫情、美股调整、风格转变等影响，指数再次走弱。我们认为指数层面的调整已经接近尾声，但风格转变可能才刚刚开始。10月开始，在稳增长等因素的驱动下，指数有可能止跌再次V型反转。整体上来看，2022年7月-2023年中，指数将会是宽幅震荡。行业配置建议：全面增配价值股。8月开始，我们不断提示“提前开始风格转换”，部分投资者认为长期产业逻辑、当期景气度比估值更重要，犹豫不决的投资者依然很多。需要警惕的是，即使是2016年白酒牛市和2019年半导体牛市，在风格转变初期的时候,风格变化也是领先业绩的。当下的风格转变至少是季度的，甚至有很大的概率发展为年度风格变化。（1）成长股的季度性反弹已经结束，建议配置上转向价值股。由于市场年度的风格是拉锯期，所以价值成长会伴随指数的涨跌出现快速的变化，4-8月成长的反弹类似2015年Q4和2019年Q1，季度涨幅过后可能会休整一个季度。如果明年初经济改善或成长业绩出现不好的变化，则时间可能更久。三季报期间可能会有成长股小的喘息窗口，时间和级别会比4-8月小很多。（2）可以在半年内超配金融地产。银行地产的超额收益大多出现在经济下降后期到经济回升早期，在经济确定改善之前，反而更容易产生超额收益。非银估值位置更好，但近期正面催化剂较少，启动时间可能比银行地产略晚，但依然建议超配。（3）消费的逻辑演绎还不充分。疫情后投资者开始逐渐预期经济恢复，这一恢复的过程虽然受到房地产销售的波折，但大方向上还能持续。建议优先关注疫后产能格局优化的酒店、航空，后续等待稳增长效果，逐渐增配和经济相关度高的家电等。（4）周期股长期逻辑完美，短期正在承受美国经济可能会衰退的影响。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":666940622,"gmtCreate":1665388631067,"gmtModify":1665388636734,"author":{"id":"4106461048730600","authorId":"4106461048730600","name":"包子山孙悟空","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0630218a2a4f88fe6a06c4ca84b607","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4106461048730600","authorIdStr":"4106461048730600"},"htmlText":"写这篇稿子的人是被逼的吧","listText":"写这篇稿子的人是被逼的吧","text":"写这篇稿子的人是被逼的吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666940622","repostId":1137925561,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666954451,"gmtCreate":1665387739874,"gmtModify":1665387742517,"author":{"id":"3573894597894015","authorId":"3573894597894015","name":"meme股探测器","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0afcfdaf70dd438f493eb33b59464e55","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573894597894015","authorIdStr":"3573894597894015"},"htmlText":"发这帖子是0.5元一条吧？","listText":"发这帖子是0.5元一条吧？","text":"发这帖子是0.5元一条吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666954451","repostId":1137925561,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7690554,"gmtCreate":1665393423396,"gmtModify":1665394205054,"authorId":3550873645307440,"author":{"id":3550873645307440,"idStr":"3550873645307440","authorId":3550873645307440,"name":"AAA小飞飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c4a2fb81a672e5e70d6de74bf5574f","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":666954451,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"不收费吧？","text":"不收费吧？","html":"不收费吧？"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666964736,"gmtCreate":1665379609226,"gmtModify":1665379611897,"author":{"id":"3482978996177370","authorId":"3482978996177370","name":"一天翻一番","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3482978996177370","authorIdStr":"3482978996177370"},"htmlText":"醉生梦死哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈","listText":"醉生梦死哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈","text":"醉生梦死哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666964736","repostId":1137925561,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666965113,"gmtCreate":1665378910832,"gmtModify":1665378912493,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","vip":1,"hat":"h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