油价熊牛反转？高盛：别急，我们正在经历第一阶段_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

油价熊牛反转？高盛：别急，我们正在经历第一阶段

金十数据2020-05-05

周二，国际油价没有停下上攻的步伐，WTI原油期货价格再次暴升16%以上，这与4月底的惊天“负油价”形成鲜明对比。油市的这波“后浪”，能把空头彻底拍翻在沙滩上吗。高盛此前曾发布报告称，预计2020年第二季度全球石油供给过剩为860万桶/日，届时全球1.2亿桶石油储能将被耗尽，因此高盛的分析师预测WTI原油将跌至负数，几周前也确实成为了现实。但近期高盛大宗商品研究部门开始看涨原油。高盛的能源策略师达米...

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Tommy特别帅
·2020-05-18
高盛！来来来，我来看看你怎么把它砸成负的？！
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七曜之光
·2020-05-06
坑里顶着说这月还要负油价抄了底，出坑本来打算多拿一会，看到牛市论emmmmm我先减仓再说，留下的发财哈，这波行情告诉你，原油这玩意它就没底，期待再涨两年回高位后拿中长线空单。
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虎林
·2020-05-06
未知数，等下月看看
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纽约华人Ray
·2020-05-06
说白了就是割了中行的韭菜。
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- Tommy特别帅:
  中行并没有亏钱，亏的劳苦大众的钱
  2020-05-06
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Jwin
·2020-05-06
看到高盛这么说，我就放心拿几期做多了
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-05-06
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Tommy特别帅
·2020-05-06
围猎原油宝的是这帮人，现在轧空想大赚一笔的还是这些人，你说这些人有多坏
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IB关联户
·2020-05-06
高盛这么说了快上车，马上要轧空了。
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-05-06
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一度过了么
·2020-05-06
基本面
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edward28
·2020-05-06
不管你看多看空，今年最大机会的就是油。只要给你逮住一只，一波行情就够你吃一年。
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Tommy特别帅
·2020-05-05
高盛：仍可能跌会负数。这些大佬没一个好东西
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- 这不是豆:
  哈哈哈哈，太真实了 [笑哭] [笑哭]
  2020-05-05
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Courvalin）上周五在一份报告中写道，因原油供给即将迅速减少，并且石油需求也会随着各国逐渐解封而逐步好转，原油基本面有望大为改善，导致原油库存的增长速度近期有所放缓，再加上创新储油方式的出现，油市似乎能够经受住了存储能力的考验，市场因此有望走向平衡。在原油供需基本面十分极端且充满了不确定性的时期，实物原油的价格往往是最真实的，此前实物原油的价格跌至历史低位甚至负值区间时，被迫减产就开始了，但这有助于减缓当地储存设施被填满的速度，这就是市场再平衡的力量。在市场再平衡的推动下，库瓦林预计油价将经历三个阶段的曲折反弹：第一阶段是近期5、6月份，WTI原油将反弹至25美元附近；第二阶段从2020年下半年开始，原油市场暴力再平衡，开始出现供不应求的状况，但库存压力得以缓解，布伦特原油小幅看涨至30美元，第二阶段可能持续到2020年第三季度或第四季度结束；第三阶段，市场将越来越集中化，有助于推涨油价，高盛对20201年第四季度布伦特原油的目标价格为65美元/桶。第一阶段：市场温和地推动再平衡，WTI原油反弹至25美元。首先是近期5、6月份，市场将温和地推动再平衡。随着减产协议的执行，供求逐渐平衡，原油积压的库存将逐步被消化，WTI原油将反弹至25美元附近，回到现金成本水平；但在此过程中油价还是会继续大幅波动，如果有增产的消息出来，且库容被耗尽了，原油现货仍有可能跌至负数。第二阶段：市场暴力再平衡，布油在30美元附近承压。第一阶段为第二阶段埋下了伏笔，将发生市场暴力再平衡，库瓦林指出了四点原因：首先，因为大多数欧佩克+成员国的减产协议是按比例执行的，有的油井一旦停产将变成永久关停；再加上减产协议执行期间油价还不会回到高位，原油是一种实物资产，此前大量闲置在存储设施里，要想实现油价大幅反弹，需要先消化库存，这可能会拖原油期货的后腿；另外，除了欧佩克+成员国将减产970万桶/日，高成本的生产商如美国页岩油企业也会被迫减产，目前非欧佩克生产商已公开承诺减产220万桶/日，但考虑到有很多国营生产商和私营生产商不会公开发声明，所以实际减产数目可能更多；此外，资本成本过高的其它生产商也将被迫离场，这种暴力的市场再平衡将导致石油供给大幅下降。随着各国经济复苏需求增加，预计从2020年第二季度末开始，原油市场将出现供不应求的状况，但原油库存压力的减小也会给油价带来压力，库瓦林预计第三季度布伦特曲线将在30美元附近。第三阶段：集中度更高的市场进一步推涨油价，布油看涨至65美元/桶。第二阶段的暴力再平衡洗刷了市场结构，有利于第三阶段进一步推涨油价。暴力再平衡中，生产成本较高的美国页岩油生产商，以及资本成本较高的其它生产商将被迫缩小规模，而生产成本较低的欧佩克将扩大市场份额。市场份额的集中化将使油价进一步上涨，因此高盛将2021年第四季度的目标油价从60美元/桶上调至65美元/桶，现货溢价上升。但值得注意的是，高盛虽然看好2021年的油价，但下调了2020年下半年的目标油价，认为2020年第四季度的石油需求将下降，比新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前下降500万桶/日。理由是：（1）假定GDP与石油需求之间存在正比例关系，那么GDP下降，石油需求也会下降相应的幅度；（2）长时间经济关停对交通运输行业将造成沉重打击，从而导致石油需求大幅下降；（3）新冠疫情对邮轮和飞机出行需求造成了毁灭性打击；（4）长期社会隔离可能改变人们的行为方式和工作方式，员工从此更多在家办公，减少通勤，而通勤的石油需求为900万桶/日。高盛认为，这四个因素对2020年和2021年每个季度的石油需求影响分别为-210万桶/日、-75万桶/日、-95万桶/日以及-100万桶/日；对2021年四个季度的影响将为-90万桶/日、-20万桶/日、-50万桶/日和-100万桶/日。基于以上分析，高盛总结称，油价要反弹出牛市行情，还需要很长的一段时间，投资者需要更有耐心。库瓦林建议投资者做多2021年12月份布伦特原油期货的水平价差，因为布油期货届时将出现大幅现货溢价；此外，他还建议投资者做多2021年第三季度的RBOB（氧化混调型精制汽油）期货，以从消费者对汽车而非其他交通方式的偏好中获利。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":959924519,"gmtCreate":1589753421331,"gmtModify":1704190491521,"author":{"id":"3485573999580758","authorId":"3485573999580758","name":"Tommy特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64865a45b6a88eeaff955c4cc34091e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3485573999580758","authorIdStr":"3485573999580758"},"htmlText":"高盛！来来来，我来看看你怎么把它砸成负的？！","listText":"高盛！来来来，我来看看你怎么把它砸成负的？！","text":"高盛！来来来，我来看看你怎么把它砸成负的？！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959924519","repostId":1134158008,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":927342695,"gmtCreate":1588762158817,"gmtModify":1704178323877,"author":{"id":"3549057401325152","authorId":"3549057401325152","name":"七曜之光","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab7e0a42bbe73a75149977b0b4cbb8d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549057401325152","authorIdStr":"3549057401325152"},"htmlText":"坑里顶着说这月还要负油价抄了底，出坑本来打算多拿一会，看到牛市论emmmmm我先减仓再说，留下的发财哈，这波行情告诉你，原油这玩意它就没底，期待再涨两年回高位后拿中长线空单。","listText":"坑里顶着说这月还要负油价抄了底，出坑本来打算多拿一会，看到牛市论emmmmm我先减仓再说，留下的发财哈，这波行情告诉你，原油这玩意它就没底，期待再涨两年回高位后拿中长线空单。","text":"坑里顶着说这月还要负油价抄了底，出坑本来打算多拿一会，看到牛市论emmmmm我先减仓再说，留下的发财哈，这波行情告诉你，原油这玩意它就没底，期待再涨两年回高位后拿中长线空单。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927342695","repostId":1134158008,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":927381189,"gmtCreate":1588749308841,"gmtModify":1704178261619,"author":{"id":"3549423975061018","authorId":"3549423975061018","name":"虎林","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549423975061018","authorIdStr":"3549423975061018"},"htmlText":"未知数，等下月看看","listText":"未知数，等下月看看","text":"未知数，等下月看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927381189","repostId":1134158008,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":927394041,"gmtCreate":1588738488483,"gmtModify":1704178228493,"author":{"id":"3500402854903614","authorId":"3500402854903614","name":"纽约华人Ray","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1760717575e5b23486dc036a33526524","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3500402854903614","authorIdStr":"3500402854903614"},"htmlText":"说白了就是割了中行的韭菜。","listText":"说白了就是割了中行的韭菜。","text":"说白了就是割了中行的韭菜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927394041","repostId":1134158008,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2413738,"gmtCreate":1588738799844,"gmtModify":1588738799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