中金策略：无需过忧信用风险，政策可能逐步加力稳增长_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

中金策略：无需过忧信用风险，政策可能逐步加力稳增长

中金策略2021-12-05

近期市场面临的内外部担忧相对较多，外部方面，在外围回调的背景下A股指数则震荡上行，符合我们上周提示的“中国市场相比海外更有韧性”的判断。基于中国疫情防控更好、经济体系更完善、增长与政策周期相对有利和市场估值水平较为合理的四大优势，我们认为中国市场相比海外可能继续表现更好。内部方面，本周某大型地产开发商公告称可能无法履行2.6亿美元，我们认为市场对于该信用风险问题的前期已有预期，对此央行、银保监会和...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

开洱文
·2021-12-06
66
回复
1
举报
收起
- 开洱文:
  66
  2021-12-06
  回复
  举报
一剑奈何
·2021-12-05
OK
回复
1
举报
收起
- 一剑奈何:
  OK
  2021-12-05
  回复
  举报
名字真难起
·2021-12-05
[微笑]
回复
1
举报
高明兴_8399
·2021-12-05
好
回复
1
举报
收起
- 高明兴_8399:
  k
  2021-12-05
  回复
  举报
CYau
·2021-12-05
Like and comment?
回复
1
举报
收起
- CYau:
  Like
  2021-12-05
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

关于我们·老虎社区守则·老虎社区账号管理规范·老虎社区服务协议·老虎社区隐私政策

公司名称：北京至简风宜信息技术有限公司

违法和不良信息投诉：010-5681-3562（工作时间9:30-18:30）

邮箱：service@laohu8.com

营业执照：91110105MA01A4U55R

ICP备：京ICP备18016422号

网安备：京公网安备11010502036490

关注我们

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126688652?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-12-05 19:21","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1126688652","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"中金策略：无需过忧信用风险，政策可能逐步加力稳增长","media":"中金策略","content":"<div>\n<p>近期市场面临的内外部担忧相对较多，外部方面，在外围回调的背景下A股指数则震荡上行，符合我们上周提示的“中国市场相比海外更有韧性”的判断。基于中国疫情防控更好、经济体系更完善、增长与政策周期相对有利和市场估值水平较为合理的四大优势，我们认为中国市场相比海外可能继续表现更好。内部方面，本周某大型地产开发商公告称可能无法履行2.6亿美元，我们认为市场对于该信用风险问题的前期已有预期，对此央行、银保监会和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/romHGKh95vTgP-bWyVMTmQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1569219621182","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金策略：无需过忧信用风险，政策可能逐步加力稳增长</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金策略：无需过忧信用风险，政策可能逐步加力稳增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-05 19:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/romHGKh95vTgP-bWyVMTmQ><strong>中金策略</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期市场面临的内外部担忧相对较多，外部方面，在外围回调的背景下A股指数则震荡上行，符合我们上周提示的“中国市场相比海外更有韧性”的判断。基于中国疫情防控更好、经济体系更完善、增长与政策周期相对有利和市场估值水平较为合理的四大优势，我们认为中国市场相比海外可能继续表现更好。内部方面，本周某大型地产开发商公告称可能无法履行2.6亿美元，我们认为市场对于该信用风险问题的前期已有预期，对此央行、银保监会和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/romHGKh95vTgP-bWyVMTmQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/romHGKh95vTgP-bWyVMTmQ","article_id":"1126688652","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126688652","pubTimestamp":1638703301,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1569219621182","name":"中金策略"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"近期市场面临的内外部担忧相对较多，外部方面，在外围回调的背景下A股指数则震荡上行，符合我们上周提示的“中国市场相比海外更有韧性”的判断。基于中国疫情防控更好、经济体系更完善、增长与政策周期相对有利和市","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"CICC strategy: There is no need to worry about credit risk, and the policy may gradually strengthen steady growth","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fa8e62348ecacc01c70cfc9ae61a03d","symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"近期市场面临的内外部担忧相对较多，外部方面，在外围回调的背景下A股指数则震荡上行，符合我们上周提示的“中国市场相比海外更有韧性”的判断。基于中国疫情防控更好、经济体系更完善、增长与政策周期相对有利和市场估值水平较为合理的四大优势，我们认为中国市场相比海外可能继续表现更好。内部方面，本周某大型地产开发商公告称可能无法履行2.6亿美元，我们认为市场对于该信用风险问题的前期已有预期，对此央行、银保监会和证监会也做出系统回应，估计对短期股市影响有限。\n更重要的是，政策逆周期调节的必要性也在提升并可能在逐步接近重要窗口期，李克强总理本周重提“中国将适时降准”可能意味着中国应对增长下滑和信用风险的政策空间仍较为充足，重点关注本月即将召开的中央经济工作会议，我们预期会议信号可能偏向稳增长。展望后市，A股可能继续相对海外市场更有韧性，内部稳增长的政策预期仍是主导市场表现的更关键因素，对于市场无需过度悲观，年底到明年初可能是政策加力的重要窗口期，市场表现可能逐步趋向积极。\n行业配置建议：配置继续向政策预期及中下游方向倾斜\n1）政策边际变化或发力潜在有支持的领域，包括地产稳需求相关产业链、潜在的消费支持领域、券商等；\n2）今年已经有所调整、估值已经不高、中长期前景依然明朗的中下游消费，自下而上择股，包括食品饮料、医药、家电、轻工家居、汽车及零部件、互联网与传媒、农林牧渔等；\n3）高景气的制造方向，包括新能源汽车、新能源及科技硬件半导体，依据产业链环节景气程度变迁而择股配置，特别关注输配电升级、汽车零部件等制造机遇。\n市场回顾：指数四周连阳，成交保持活跃\n本周事件性因素较多，新变种病毒扩散、美联储货币政策紧缩预期、中概股监管政策变化、个别房企动向、国内政策预期等多空因素交织，在此背景下A股市场显现韧性，表现明显好于外围，上证指数周度收涨1.2%，已经连续四周收阳。市场成交仍然较为活跃，A股日成交额连续31个交易日维持在万亿元上方。风格方面，创业板指上涨0.3%，沪深300上涨0.8%；行业层面，周期板块表现相对较好，煤炭受长期合同签订利好影响涨幅最大，稳增长相关的建筑和建材涨幅居前，军工板块也有不错表现；受疫情影响的消费者服务跌幅最大，医药和传媒也表现低迷。\n市场展望：无需过忧信用风险，政策可能逐步加力稳增长\n近期市场面临的内外部担忧相对较多，外部方面，新冠疫情新形势和美国政策退出预期导致外围震幅加大且明显回调，A股指数则震荡上行，符合我们上周提示的“中国市场相比海外更有韧性”的判断。虽然当前Omicron病毒仍有较多变数，尤其是致死率和重症率仍有待观察，但基于中国疫情防控更好、经济体系更完善、增长与政策周期相对有利和市场估值水平较为合理的四大优势，我们认为中国市场相比海外可能继续表现更好。\n内部方面，近期信用风险是持续压制市场情绪的重要因素，本周某大型地产开发商公告称可能无法履行2.6亿美元，并且已在积极制定境外重组方案。我们认为市场对于该信用风险问题的前期已有预期，对此央行、银保监会和证监会也做出系统回应，估计对短期股市影响有限。更重要的是，国内增长下滑，消费和房地产整体偏弱的特征已持续较长时间并形成共识，政策逆周期调节的必要性也在提升并可能在逐步接近重要窗口期，李克强总理本周重提“中国将适时降准”可能意味着中国应对增长下滑和信用风险的政策空间仍较为充足[1]，重点关注本月即将召开的中央经济工作会议，我们预期会议信号可能偏向稳增长。\n展望后市，A股可能继续相对海外市场更有韧性，内部稳增长的政策预期仍是主导市场表现的更关键因素，市场短期在内外部影响之下路径可能有波折，但无需过度悲观，四季度以来政策已逐步朝“稳增长、保民生”的方向转变，年底到明年初可能是政策加力的重要窗口期，市场表现可能逐步趋向积极。在配置上，短期更加注重稳增长相关领域的阶段性机会，中期关注上游价格压力缓解带来的中下游制造与消费的成长机遇。近期注意以下几方面进展：\n1）11月增长数据可能阶段企稳。下周11月经济和金融数据将陆续发布，11月制造业PMI超预期反弹0.9个百分点至50.1%，其中电力供应缓解后的工业生产反弹是主要支撑，重点关注10月底以来全国疫情对社消的影响程度，以及金融数据中的新增社融和信贷能否企稳，并在住房信贷等重点结构能否有所改善。\n2）信用风险事件应对。某大型地产开发商公告可能无法履行2.6亿美元担保义务后，广东省已约谈企业并派出工作组入驻，央行、银保监会和证监会也做出回应，未来需重点关注信用事件的具体处理和政策应对。\n3）政策宽松信号渐强。国务院总理李克强12月3日在会见国际货币基金组织的官员时强调“继续实施稳健的货币政策，保持流动性合理充裕，围绕市场主体需求制定政策，适时降准，加大对实体经济特别是中小微企业的支持力度”，重提降准在一定程度上强化了政策偏宽松的预期，同时更要关注本月中下旬中央经济工作会议对政策信号和发力方向的进一步明确。\n4）产业重要变化。本周多行业发生政策和基本面的重要变化，包括《电子烟管理办法》征求意见稿出台，新一轮国家药品目录调整和价格谈判，光伏龙头宣布硅片降价等，密切关注对相关行业基本面的影响。\n5）海外变种病毒、中概股市场变化等。截至12月3日，世卫组织称全球共有38个国家发现Omicron病毒感染病例，目前病毒毒性和疫苗的有效性还有待进一步实验证明，全球各国警惕性较高并采取入境限制，日本目前已关闭国境；本周鲍威尔在国会意外承认通胀并非“暂时性”导致市场预期混乱[2]，美股继续震荡下跌；滴滴出行本周宣布启动纽交所退市程序，并启动香港上市工作，引发市场对于更多中概股在新政下退市的担忧，未来仍需密切关注相关进展。\n行业建议：配置继续向政策预期及中下游方向倾斜\n具体来说，当前要注重三个方向：\n1）政策边际变化或发力潜在有支持的领域，包括地产稳需求相关产业链、潜在的消费支持领域、券商等；\n2）今年已经有所调整、估值已经不高、中长期前景依然明朗的中下游消费，自下而上择股，包括食品饮料、医药、家电、轻工家居、汽车及零部件、互联网与传媒、农林牧渔等；\n3）高景气的制造方向，包括新能源汽车、新能源及科技硬件半导体，依据产业链环节景气程度变迁而择股配置，特别关注输配电升级、汽车零部件等环节的制造机遇。\n上述三个方向可能略有所重叠，但可能代表着未来3-6个月的配置方向，其中第一个方向更偏阶段性、更需要关注政策节奏。\n近期关注：1)11月经济增长数据及政策动态；2）地产信用事件处理及政策；3）产业监管政策变化；4）国内局部疫情和海外变种病毒进展；5）美国政策退出节奏和增长数据等。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":608640395,"gmtCreate":1638722415138,"gmtModify":1638722415138,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608640395","repostId":1126688652,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6857946,"gmtCreate":1638722420285,"gmtModify":1638722420357,"authorId":3578098715246654,"author":{"id":3578098715246654,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorId":3578098715246654,"name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608640395,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"66","text":"66","html":"66"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608687493,"gmtCreate":1638714534816,"gmtModify":1638714534816,"author":{"id":"3586266967551836","authorId":"3586266967551836","name":"一剑奈何","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586266967551836","authorIdStr":"3586266967551836"},"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608687493","repostId":1126688652,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6856778,"gmtCreate":1638714542266,"gmtModify":1638714542340,"authorId":3586266967551836,"author":{"id":3586266967551836,"idStr":"3586266967551836","authorId":3586266967551836,"name":"一剑奈何","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608687493,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"OK","text":"OK","html":"OK"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608618913,"gmtCreate":1638709447277,"gmtModify":1638709447372,"author":{"id":"3574912171304795","authorId":"3574912171304795","name":"名字真难起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/166dd73ae35792ef9ad610b055053565","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574912171304795","authorIdStr":"3574912171304795"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608618913","repostId":1126688652,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608639093,"gmtCreate":1638704978202,"gmtModify":1638704978390,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608639093","repostId":1126688652,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6855751,"gmtCreate":1638704990130,"gmtModify":1638704990156,"authorId":3557375403451824,"author":{"id":3557375403451824,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorId":3557375403451824,"name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608639093,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"k","text":"k","html":"k"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608694052,"gmtCreate":1638703546823,"gmtModify":1638703549061,"author":{"id":"3570939692047814","authorId":"3570939692047814","name":"CYau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2e95f0892ea42f2c8b533a3c4db200","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570939692047814","authorIdStr":"3570939692047814"},"htmlText":"Like and comment?","listText":"Like and comment?","text":"Like and comment?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608694052","repostId":1126688652,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6855591,"gmtCreate":1638703556990,"gmtModify":1638703557017,"authorId":3570939692047814,"author":{"id":3570939692047814,"idStr":"3570939692047814","authorId":3570939692047814,"name":"CYau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2e95f0892ea42f2c8b533a3c4db200","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608694052,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":75,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}