The crises hidden behind the Kabul airport have formed the first trouble that Biden has to face, as we discussed in the article posted on August 23. And what's the second problem? The answer is "infrastructure plan & welfare plan."
The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan has made the whole world feel the weakening of US military forces. In the meantime, the troop withdrawal has also given the Democratic Party a reason for infighting. Biden's infrastructure plan has been promoted in a high-profile manner since the first day he took office. However, the infrastructure plan encountered obstacles.
According to the statement made by major investment banks in the United States yesterday, it is impossible for these 9 Democratic centrists to kick against the pricks. One reason is that none of these 9 Democratic congressmen are well-known enough. The second reason is that the bills promoted by the White House in the past 40 years have never been successfully "kidnapped" by the Democratic centrists. If the 9 Democratic centrists work together, it is indeed possible to prevent both plans from being passed together. If so, the likelihood that the infrastructure plan will not be passed is going to be thicker. Failure to pass the infrastructure plan will not only lead to the collapse of Biden's advantages but also the breakdown of the Democratic Party's mid-term elections next year. Therefore, the market judges that the $4.5 trillion plan will be launched as scheduled.
At a superficial level, the struggle is followed by the incompatibility between infrastructure plan and welfare plan; but from a deeper perspective, it is the disharmony between the Democratic centrist and the extreme left-wing.
It is pretty easy for the infrastructure plan to be approved by Congress and the White House alone. But the extreme left-wing realizes that once the $1 trillion infrastructure plan is passed alone, the $3.5 trillion welfare plan will completely come to nothing. So, the left-wing in the House of Representatives got the drop on the issue, indicating that either the two plans are passed together, or none of them are passed. It is said that there are 50 people in the extreme left-wing under the House of Representatives, which makes it hard to offend them.
Biden's taking the crown in the White House benefited from his identity of Democratic centrist to a large extent. Not only is he a centrist, but the leaders of both houses of the Democratic Party are holding a background of a centrist. However, after Biden came to power, he was unconsciously coerced by the extreme left-wing in the middle of the policy agenda, and the leaders of the two houses of the Democratic Party were kidnapped in thoughts even more severely.
In terms of the infrastructure plan and welfare plan, the two congressional leaders of the Democratic Party were very active in tying up the two plans, which finally dragged Biden into the mire. However, the statement made by Biden is still vague, suggesting that he is swaying precariously between the approval of the infrastructure plan and the support for both plans. As a result, both the centrists and the extreme left-wing say that their voice represents Biden's opinion.
To pass the vote on Monday night, the leaders made great efforts on these 9 people during the weekend. Disappointedly, not only did the efforts beat a dead horse, but more Democrats were willing to join the group of these 9 people, including the 18-member Democratic Party group Blue Dog. The two Democrats in the Senate also supported the loosening of two plans. It should be noted that the support of these two people is necessary for the implementation of the $3.5 trillion plan. Like the predicament of Kabul Airport, if Biden cannot resolve the battle quickly in this fight, the division will inevitably spread.
Now, there are 3 choices that Biden can make:
1. Persuading these 9 people and other centrists to support the bundling of two plans, with the difficulty factor marking 70 points;
2. Persuading the extreme left-wing to give up the bundling, with the difficulty factor marking 90 points;
3. Abandoning the support from the extreme left-wing and trying his best to be endorsed by some Republican congressmen to support the infrastructure plan, with the difficulty factor marking 50 points.
The third choice is the easiest for the president to make. Biden and Democratic leaders are afraid to mention it now because it will make the left-wing feel "betrayed," which may affect the result of the next election. The first choice is relatively easy, with little impact on the later stage. But, as time goes on, the forces of centrists will grow, too.
If necessary, the decision on the predicament of Kabul Airport will be pended. But for Biden, the implementation of the infrastructure plan is imperative.
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