当心！2021年可能飞出这11大“黑天鹅”！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

当心！2021年可能飞出这11大“黑天鹅”！

汇通网2020-12-22

2020年，终于要到尾声，这一年突发的疫情，对经济的冲击是极其严重的，同时，叠加市场一些意外的风险事件，比如；美国总统特朗普败选，日本首相安倍晋三意外辞职，国际贸易局势严峻等一系列风险事件，都对金融市场产生一定程度的影响。而在即将到来的2021年，市场是希望与担忧并存，希望疫苗能快速研发，快速接种，经济复苏，但也担忧将可能发生一些不可预测的风险事件，就一些可能的意外事件提前预测。科技改变办公...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

jbzc
·2020-12-23
哈里斯有可能当上总统，就像辛普森一家99年写的那样，川普后面是位女总统，不过不知道是这一届还是下一届
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生肉麵加豬油渣
·2020-12-23
路过
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西都客
·2020-12-23
[晕]
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大保健技术科技
·2020-12-23
wtm搁这演小说呢
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边牧佩
·2020-12-23
文章不错
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睿姐姐
·2020-12-23
阅
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tjjcw
·2020-12-23
如梦如幻
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虎虎端
·2020-12-23
预计旅游业将继续萎缩并且改变形态，国内旅游居多。航空公司、连锁酒店和飞机制造商的困境依旧难以解除。一些对留学生依赖较大的大学也将面临经营困境，文化交流更是将继续受到影响。
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华美虎
·2020-12-23
不可能出现“拜登因大规模**而辞职，让哈里斯接任”这种情况的，除非他本人身体出状况。
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猛逃
·2020-12-23
文章不错👍
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价值投资践行者小邦
·2020-12-23
牛逼
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-23
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吃肉的兔子
·2020-12-23
拜登辞职不可能，说他摔一跤就呜呼哀哉了倒是有可能。
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漠漠陛下
·2020-12-22
天下岂有因党争而辞职之美利坚总统？[笑哭] [笑哭] [捂脸] 那又不是欧洲～米国总统之路可是钱铺出来的路子，拜登想辞他背后的各方利益集团也不能答应啊，何况人家老牌政客，小编想多了[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
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- phil888:
  说明小编水平差，这种智力硬伤的文章也推荐出来给大家看笑话。
  2020-12-23
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比个戏
·2020-12-22
白等辞职感觉有点像驾崩而不是因为自己辞了
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-23
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黑暗矩阵
·2020-12-22
看到拜登辞职心里一愣
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1
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-22
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股神Up
·2020-12-22
扯淡呢，美国两党矛盾由来已久，太正常了，因两党矛盾不可调和引发社会动荡？导致拜登辞职？？？？
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1
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smomo
·2020-12-22
拜登辞职？？？？？
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3
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-22
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May fly out of these 11 \"black swans\" in 2021!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0de80b6d189871517f8d4e73897eb3","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"2020年，终于要到尾声，这一年突发的疫情，对经济的冲击是极其严重的，同时，叠加市场一些意外的风险事件，比如；美国总统特朗普败选，日本首相安倍晋三意外辞职，国际贸易局势严峻等一系列风险事件，都对金融市场产生一定程度的影响。而在即将到来的2021年，市场是希望与担忧并存，希望疫苗能快速研发，快速接种，经济复苏，但也担忧将可能发生一些不可预测的风险事件，就一些可能的意外事件提前预测。\n\n科技改变办公模式，持续性的远程办公限制工资上涨\n2020年，网购、远程会议、远程办公和远程学习等科技改变了事情期间的办公模式和生活方式。到了2021年，这些变化将在多大程度上持续或者迅速恢复到疫情之前，将会逐渐明晰。那些受益于疫情封锁的部分公司，将面对新的挑战。\n美国银行表示：“随着越来越多的企业将其员工迁出昂贵的城市，并相应地调整工资，我们想知道，全球劳动力套利是否会出现在中上层阶级身上：即富人和远程办公的工作者不断储蓄财富，减少消费(每增加收入1美元，仅支出0.52美元)，而低收入的服务业工作者却只能不断支出(即每增加收入1美元，但需支出1.30美元)，而几乎无法得到任何储蓄。”\n对僵尸企业的救助限制生产率和GDP增长\n在2020年，21万亿美元的全球经济刺激计划已经被证明了是必要的，但这也引发了一个问题：市场上所谓的坏公司也和好公司一样得到了政府的救助。这最终引发的风险不是戏剧性的债务危机，而是对生产率的长期拖累。\n目前约16%的经合组织(OECD)企业已经成为了“僵尸企业”(即即使在反弹时期，这些企业的营收也只能用于弥补负债，而没有足够的资金能用于资本支出)，而能改变这些企业的现状的唯一办法就是增加总需求。\n疫苗之争：从艰难研发转到分发问题\n随着第一批疫苗的大量供应，全世界的关注重点将从艰难研发到疫苗分发问题上。国家内部与国与国之间，谁先接种疫苗，以及何时接种，疫苗定价等问题将极大地影响全球资本市场情绪。另一个巨大的不确定因素是，最终会有多少人接种疫苗。\n美国民主党赢得佐治亚州席位从而获得参议院控制权\n2021年1月5日，民主党参议员候选人乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)和拉斐尔·沃诺克(Raphael Warnock)将和现任共和党参议员凯利·莱弗勒(Kelly Loeffler)和戴维·珀杜(David Perdue)争夺佐治亚州参议员席位。\n到目前为止，共和党在参议院拥有50-48的多数席位。这意味着佐治亚州的最后两个参议员席位的竞选结果将决定参议院控制权的归属。如果民主党候选人能够赢得这剩下的两个席位，参议院两党席位将变为50-50的局面。根据美国法律，届时将由获选美国新任副总统哈里斯担任参议院议长，从而为民主党赢得参议院控制权，民主党将启动加税和技术行业监管改革的立法议程，这将导致科技股大幅下挫，国债发行隐忧推动收益率大幅飙升。\n两党联合的产业政策繁荣\n美国银行虽然预计，未来美国两党出现僵局的情况和最终定下紧缩政策的可能性较大，但仍然希望两党能达成和解。因为该行认为，美国目前迫切需要重建其传统基础设施，改善数字基础设施，并支持增长型产业的发展。\n而对于建设资金方面，定价高于美国国债且仅向美国公民发行的建设美国债券也明显具备更大的吸引力。\n新兴市场债务违约和主权评级下调\n公司债违约慢慢出现，随后波及到国有实体，进而导致大面积评级下调。这将导致新兴市场股市在二季度前下跌30%，并创出2013年以来最差年度表现。\n欧洲财政刺激希望破灭\n在零利率及资产负债表规模与GDP比例逼近100%水平的情况下，欧洲央行支持经济复苏的能力日益受到削弱，或令欧元兑美元汇率在2021年年中前跌至1.06。\n美国财政部放弃强势美元政策\n如果美国国会不能就财政刺激计划达成一致，新任财长耶伦或将通过压低美元汇率来缓解金融状况，从而导致美元暴跌15%。\n货币和财政刺激推动百年来最强劲复苏，OPEC分裂\n为填补财政漏洞，原油出口国放弃供应配额，致使OPEC合作瓦解，从而导致油价再次跌回每桶20美元。货币和财政刺激推动百年来最强劲复苏，迫切期望从实物资产中获利的投资者和交易员将越来越多的资金投向诸如铜这样的大宗市场，从而引发铜价飙升50%。\n美国总统拜登辞职\n因不能弥合两党分歧，且面临越来越大的抗议和社会动荡压力，拜登辞去总统之职，由副总统哈里斯接任。这将导致美股大幅回调，信贷利差扩大，美元加速贬值。\n疫情影响下，世界或依然不自由\n预计旅游业将继续萎缩并且改变形态，国内旅游居多。航空公司、连锁酒店和飞机制造商的困境依旧难以解除。一些对留学生依赖较大的大学也将面临经营困境，文化交流更是将继续受到影响。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":330764679,"gmtCreate":1608702620791,"gmtModify":1703736260728,"author":{"id":"3570668029377740","authorId":"3570668029377740","name":"jbzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084362c890227d21521645c2c004dc1e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570668029377740","authorIdStr":"3570668029377740"},"htmlText":"哈里斯有可能当上总统，就像辛普森一家99年写的那样，川普后面是位女总统，不过不知道是这一届还是下一届","listText":"哈里斯有可能当上总统，就像辛普森一家99年写的那样，川普后面是位女总统，不过不知道是这一届还是下一届","text":"哈里斯有可能当上总统，就像辛普森一家99年写的那样，川普后面是位女总统，不过不知道是这一届还是下一届","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330764679","repostId":1121109465,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":330479082,"gmtCreate":1608686503646,"gmtModify":1703736163591,"author":{"id":"3559357742503712","authorId":"3559357742503712","name":"生肉麵加豬油渣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797772e5857b1091ed85d4b17fe6201b","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559357742503712","authorIdStr":"3559357742503712"},"htmlText":"路过","listText":"路过","text":"路过","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330479082","repostId":1121109465,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":330455845,"gmtCreate":1608683620387,"gmtModify":1703736144608,"author":{"id":"3445909723757749","authorId":"3445909723757749","name":"西都客","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6c109daec0028bd0ac76997a9fbf7d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3445909723757749","authorIdStr":"3445909723757749"},"htmlText":"[晕]&nbsp;","listText":"[晕]&nbsp;","text":"[晕]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330455845","repostId":1121109465,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":330456994,"gmtCreate":1608683238318,"gmtModify":1703736140808,"author":{"id":"3568992753951514","authorId":"3568992753951514","name":"大保健技术科技","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75944ad144f2566ba526ce9b292d3cd2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568992753951514","authorIdStr":"3568992753951514"},"htmlText":"wtm搁这演小说呢","listText":"wtm搁这演小说呢","text":"wtm搁这演小说呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0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