大空头：现在的美国市场越来越像雷曼破产那年_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

大空头：现在的美国市场越来越像雷曼破产那年

华尔街见闻2021-10-09

作者：刘晓翠在追溯2008年夏天雷曼公司破产以及由此引发的一系列金融危机时，有一种理论认为，这与当时油价创纪录大涨（最高超过150美元），以及货币政策紧缩的宏观环境，有着密切的关系。法国兴业银行的明星分析师、同时也是华尔街著名大空头的Albert Edwards，在最新的报告中提到了这点。他写到，能源价格不断飙升，叠加央行开始收紧政策，这都让人感觉仿佛回到了2008年的7月。只是，这一次会有...

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132

叮叮当当的小人物
·2021-10-10
谢谢分享
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SDLiuSG
·2021-10-10
Really?
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1
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- SDLiuSG:
  can not believe
  2021-10-10
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中国ChinaATM
·2021-10-10
根本不像，市场超悲观
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中国ChinaATM
·2021-10-10
像你妹，危言耸听
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hosw76
·2021-10-10
谢谢分享
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1
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yapfuiping
·2021-10-10
Good
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1
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开洱文
·2021-10-09
66
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- 开洱文:
  6
  2021-10-09
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- Gnehnusee:
  66
  2021-10-10
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LawrenceCW
·2021-10-09
666
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Sinlin
·2021-10-09
买BTC啰？
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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641931><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：刘晓翠\n在追溯2008年夏天雷曼公司破产以及由此引发的一系列金融危机时，有一种理论认为，这与当时油价创纪录大涨（最高超过150美元），以及货币政策紧缩的宏观环境，有着密切的关系。\n法国兴业银行的明星分析师、同时也是华尔街著名大空头的Albert Edwards，在最新的报告中提到了这点。他写到，能源价格不断飙升，叠加央行开始收紧政策，这都让人感觉仿佛回到了2008年的7月。\n只是，这一次会有...</p>\n\n<a 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Edwards，在最新的报告中提到了这点。他写到，能源价格不断飙升，叠加央行开始收紧政策，这都让人感觉仿佛回到了2008年的7月。\n只是，这一次会有什么不同吗？\nEdwards写到，“当前快速上涨的能源价格将极大地左右‘通胀是暂时的还是永久的’这一争论。”显而易见，金融环境已经在以肉眼可见的速度收紧，通胀预期徘徊在高位。\n尽管市场可能仍然寄希望于央行能带来反转的惊喜，就像2018年12月做的那样，但“极度紧张的劳动力市场，以及家庭部门受到能源价格和总体生活成本上涨带来的打击，已经令价格/工资的恶性循环形成。”\n尽管央行行长们一再重申，通胀是暂时的，但Edwards指出，通胀长期存在的威胁越来越近，这促使世界各地的央行开始了紧缩周期，有的已经启动了加息进程（例如挪威和新西兰），有的威胁明年加息（比如英国），有的即将开始缩减量化宽松(比如美国和欧元区)。\n考虑到通胀加剧以及美联储收紧政策，他认为债券收益率将继续走高，金融环境将更加紧张。10年期美国国债收益率将可能达到2-2.25%。\n\n这对债券市场的影响可能比较有限，但对股票投资者来说就有点麻烦了，尤其是受益于极低利率、估值飙上天的科技股。\nEdwards援引BCA的一张图表试图证明，今年年初以来，全球科技股与美国30年期债券收益率的关联度有多高。\n\n他说，如果美国30年期国债收益率从目前的2.1%上升到2.4%，科技股价格将下跌15%左右。想象一下，如果美国10年期国债收益率从目前的1.5%上升到2.25%，我们可能会见证一场科技股大熊市！\n当然，如果利率上升，不只是科技股会遭殃，防御型股票也会面临风险。同为法兴分析师的Andrew Lapthorne指出，股票对债券收益率的敏感性估值缺口从未如此之大!\n这意味着，当利率快速上升，一大部分股票都会遭受严重冲击。下图黑线指受益于债券利率上升的前20%股票的估值，红线指受益于债券收益率下跌的前20%股票的估值。\n\nEdwards担心，对科技股集中的纳斯达克而言，比债券收益率上升更大的风险是随之而来的衰退。即便是2020年疫情肆虐期间，科技公司们依然攫取了丰厚的利润，这种盈利的增长让科技股看上去很有“成长性”，但实际上不过是赶上了科技周期的东风而已。\n“问题是，只要来一场普普通通的衰退，就会把这些‘伪装者’打回原形，就像2001年科网泡沫破灭时那样。”\nEdwards认为，如果一场衰退即将到来，美国极容易暴露在危险之中，原因之一是经合组织估算美国明年将大幅收紧5%的财政政策，数万亿美元财政刺激将逐渐消退，变成完全的“逆风”。（华尔街见闻此前也曾分析过明年的财政悬崖对全球经济的风险。）\n\n最新的经济指标表明，增长放缓可能已经到来。亚特兰大联储对美国三季度GDP的最新预测已降至1.3%。\nEdwards建议股票投资者仔细考虑，能源价格攀升和债券收益率上升触发一场“完全意想不到的”衰退的可能性，因为这可能是投资者面临的最大风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":828390498,"gmtCreate":1633839753954,"gmtModify":1633839754065,"author":{"id":"4087889123915090","authorId":"4087889123915090","name":"叮叮当当的小人物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1644a01344ef5c9a8b34064c181bb52a","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087889123915090","authorIdStr":"4087889123915090"},"htmlText":"谢谢分享","listText":"谢谢分享","text":"谢谢分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828390498","repostId":1120557390,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":828075425,"gmtCreate":1633828862360,"gmtModify":1633828862360,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828075425","repostId":1120557390,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6147140,"gmtCreate":1633828871921,"gmtModify":1634717459322,"authorId":3575949053778392,"author":{"id":3575949053778392,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorId":3575949053778392,"name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":828075425,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"can 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