做好准备，本周有暴跌20%的风险_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

做好准备，本周有暴跌20%的风险

最贪婪的交易员2020-11-02

美国大选投票日前夕，我们见证了一场大清仓，股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间，创7个月以来最大周跌幅，十月下旬标普500就跌了5%，是1987年（-10.9%）以来同期最差的表现，也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。道指和纳指都已经进入回调区，较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。恐慌指数VIX创3月以来...

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天虎
·2020-11-03
大选4年一次是常态，没什么大惊小怪
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Lydia758
·2020-11-03
先跃后涨
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Alital
·2020-11-03
我觉得4号以后会直线上涨。
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2
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子丰Eason
·2020-11-03
先出来等结果再进去
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Oye835260
·2020-11-03
说川普必赢的可以去赌博网站压开出来的美国大选盘口啊，川普赔率很高的呦，比故事来钱快多了，赶快去吧这钱多好赚
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饿鱼
·2020-11-02
成为反向指标了
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阿O
·2020-11-02
啪啪打脸
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1
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在美留守韭菜
·2020-11-02
瞎逼扯，11月3号不可能出得了结果
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2
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Fred_6810
·2020-11-02
分析基本靠谱
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里海爸爸
·2020-11-02
你们卖我就买
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LilyLin
·2020-11-02
All in
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Running_r
·2020-11-02
严阵以待
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iAm22
·2020-11-02
所以阿川继续白宫里蹲着吧
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4
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- iAm22:
  非要说万华产品用到新能源应用的话那就是TPU等反正不贴近这个概念
  2020-11-04
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- 天虎回复iAm22:
  现在流行顺周期，新能源车也要用到万华的产品？
  2020-11-04
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- iAm22:
  我不玩化工只是在化工行业[得意] 万华熟啊不过这么高了才想到上啊看看卫星石化
  2020-11-04
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查看更多 2 条评论
莱德弗雷德
·2020-11-02
川建国同志必胜!
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1
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爱我丿你pua了吗丿
·2020-11-02
我信你个鬼哟[抠鼻]
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2
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Chiholo
·2020-11-02
都tm瞎操心，好好关心下自己下届领导人是谁好过
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1
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- 阿咧咧欧啦:
  自己的班长都是板上钉钉反对的人就以贪污受贿抓毫无悬念
  2020-11-06
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- 卧槽立正站好:
  难道还有悬念吗？
  2020-11-03
  回复
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网球宝宝
·2020-11-02
什么垃圾文章都往这里发不跌20%表演吃屎吧
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2
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巴拉巴拉的
·2020-11-02
不怕，该买的还是会买的
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乐于赚钱的安娜
·2020-11-02
一巴掌拍死你
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3
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week.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f043c34783bda60224290d0cc4b5f8ee","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"美国大选投票日前夕，我们见证了一场大清仓，股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间，创7个月以来最大周跌幅，十月下旬标普500就跌了5%，是1987年（-10.9%）以来同期最差的表现，也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区，较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅，接近44这个十分重要的水平。\n\nWTI原油跌到了34美元水平，为5月以来最低。\n总而言之，最关键也是最危险的一周，来了。\n最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程\n投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好，据说这利好民主党，共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。\n一些城市的街道严阵以待，商户用木板把店面封闭，以免在大选夜遭到破坏。\n\n投注网站PredictIt显示，拜登胜率为66%，高于一周前的62.9%；川普的胜率约为39%，也略高于一周前的37.1%。\nReal Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示，拜登的支持率为51.3%，川普为43.5%。\n我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。\n\n从周末的民调看，佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。\n另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际，前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意，这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程，体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。\n宾州也是最重要的战场州之一，现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年，川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州，拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。\n但民调不可尽信，如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车，会发生什么？结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张，而拜登只能赢得259张。\n若真如此，那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱，因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。\n\n刚刚过去的周末，还有一个重要的变化。\nCNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔，社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。\nCNN甚至发表了一篇社论称，川普值得第二个任期。\n\n在这大选前的最后时刻，如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸，难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。\n再者，虽然这个事件来得比较晚，可能还不足以逆转选情，但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面，大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下，事件的影响也会很长久。\n做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备\n摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%，川普更断言，“大选日当晚不会出结果，要等好几周”。\n在一些最重要的“摇摆州”，混乱的前兆已经出现。\n宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票，有些郡出现大量选票遗失，得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。\n整体而言，威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着，两位候选人的得票可能相当接近，从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。\n提醒一下：各个州验证结果，和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日（投票后35天），或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。\n根据目前已知的情况，佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回，北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票，并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。\n因此，佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉，给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。\n例如，如果川普拿不下佛州，胜选的可能性就会小很多，市场会立即认为他已经输了。\n同样的，如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席，那么，市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。\n不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天，如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近，那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。\n如何交易大选？\n首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。\n恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示，未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。按照经验，如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似，就应该降低风险敞口。\n相反，如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似，那么即使VIX飙到44，你还是可以增加风险敞口。\n\n至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑，我们可以通过下表直观了解：\n\n大选结果对于各类资产的影响，在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。\n对美股而言，无论川普还是拜登获胜，都是有利的——前者有减税政策，后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。\n而美股上涨的幅度，则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。\n当然了，最坏的结果是：选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者，美股可能跌入熊市。\n富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者：\n\n 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