下一个十年，为何要关注东南亚？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

下一个十年，为何要关注东南亚？

经济学人全球商...2021-10-18

过去十年来，中国已成为东南亚国家最大的投资者之一，金融影响力受到全球关注，但一个容易被忽略的事实是：行事低调的日本在东南亚地区的基建投资还要超过中国，并在新冠以来扩大了领先优势。尽管日本一直不愿意将自己追逐大型基建项目说成是与中国竞争，但显然不难看出其在战略上的变化，尤其是安倍执政期间。在东南亚的商业活动即使还不能贡献大份额收入，也可以帮助探索如何在海外经营。这里的环境既熟悉（有几千万人说中文，...

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hhyw
·2021-10-19
下一个百年都是亚洲的时代🙂🙂
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- 云里梦里飞:
  淘金梦
  2021-10-19
  回复
  举报
- 中国ChinaATM:
  是
  2021-10-19
  回复
  举报
- 滚股怪:
  Yes
  2021-10-19
  回复
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Tome
·2021-10-19
赞👍
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1
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Tummy
·2021-10-19
赞赞👍
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1
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CKWAI
·2021-10-19
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
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4
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-10-19
  回复
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- 云里梦里飞:
  来了
  2021-10-19
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Sen001
·2021-10-19
阅
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5
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- Sen001:
  [财迷]
  2021-10-19
  回复
  举报
- 十八顺:
  好 [财迷] [财迷]
  2021-10-19
  回复
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白白玻璃菜
·2021-10-19
感谢分享
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3
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- 神话者:
  [微笑]
  2021-10-19
  回复
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Youn7276
·2021-10-19
阅
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3
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- maigis:
  [财迷]
  2021-10-19
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哈喽神
·2021-10-19
好[开心]
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2
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进击的徐小伟
·2021-10-18
如何投资这些国家呢
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2
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- Youn7276:
  好
  2021-10-19
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阿美力加
·2021-10-18
看好越南
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decade?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a30c7566a1cd6cca1a0a63b242cd82e7","symbols_score_info":{"00422":0.9,"EWM":0.9,"EWS":0.9},"content_text":"过去十年来，中国已成为东南亚国家最大的投资者之一，金融影响力受到全球关注，但一个容易被忽略的事实是：行事低调的日本在东南亚地区的基建投资还要超过中国，并在新冠以来扩大了领先优势。尽管日本一直不愿意将自己追逐大型基建项目说成是与中国竞争，但显然不难看出其在战略上的变化，尤其是安倍执政期间。\n在东南亚的商业活动即使还不能贡献大份额收入，也可以帮助探索如何在海外经营。这里的环境既熟悉（有几千万人说中文，而且往往是商业的主力军）又多样（覆盖不同司法管辖区和各种收入阶层）。以往，亚洲企业一直把该地区作为征战全球的中转站。现在，中国的企业巨头会很乐意探索。面对更严格反垄断监管的科技业正在将目光瞄准东南亚——近七亿人口和迅猛增长的数字经济，特别是去年增长超过50%的云计算市场是一块潜力无限的沃土，随着中国加大投入，它不会成为亚马逊AWS的囊中之物。\n新冠爆发以来，越南的经济表现成为亮点，如今最严重的一轮疫情令越南举步维艰并扰乱了全球供应链。即使如此，与全球制造业的融合使越南经济在疫情期间保持了繁荣。2020年尽管大多数国家都经历了深度衰退，越南GDP却增长了2.9%。虽然最近疫情爆发，但今年的增速可能还会更快。世界银行于8月24日发布的最新预测认为它在2021年将增长4.8%。越南成功的秘诀是什么？增长又能否持续？\n海外华人与家族企业的故事也很重要。新冠带来的全球化放缓与区域化升级令东南亚华人的商业帝国与祖国间的纽带强化。泰国华人谢易初创立的正大集团就是一个颇具代表性的案例。尽管华裔在东南亚约6.5亿人口中的占比不到10％，他们却在该地区3万亿美元的经济中呼风唤雨。去年，这些企业帮助东南亚超越欧盟成为了中国最大的贸易伙伴。未来会怎么走？中国与东南亚资金与人员的密集流动仍将继续，区域的未来需要持续关注。\n01\n越南成为全球疫后增长亮点\n对贸易和投资的开放使这个人均GDP仅2800美元的国家成为了供应链中的重要一环。这反过来又推动了显著的扩张。在过去的30年里，它一直是世界上增长最快的五个国家之一，远超邻国（见图1）。这一履历的特点不是在许多其他前沿市场出现的那种起起落落，而是稳定增长。政府的计划甚至更为宏伟，希望越南到2045年成为高收入国家，而这项任务需要它以每年7%的速度增长。越南成功的秘诀是什么？它能否持续下去？\n\n在1990年代或2000年代初期，越南经常被拿来与中国相比较，这不无道理。但两国也有很大的不同。首先，即使将越南描述为出口密集型也不足以体现它在国外的销售量。该国货物贸易额超过了GDP的200%。除了资源最丰富的国家或以海上贸易为主的城市国家之外，很少有经济体在当下或曾经有如此密集的贸易。\n越南与中国的不同之处不仅仅在于出口水平，还有出口商的性质。事实上，它与全球供应链的深厚连结和高水平的外国投资使它看起来更像新加坡。自1990年以来，越南每年平均获得的外国直接投资流入量相当于GDP的6%，是全球水平的两倍多——而且远远超过中国或韩国在任何一段持续时期内达到的记录。随着东亚其他地区的发展和工资上涨，越南低廉的劳动力成本和稳定的汇率吸引了全球制造商。这推动了一轮出口繁荣。但是，外国和本国公司之间不断扩大的差距如今正在形成新的问题。\n02\n老挝与中国经济特区\n\n2018年，中国投资占老挝外国直接投资的近80%。中国投资的一部分正沿着传统路线流向曼德勒（Mandalay）等地，这座缅甸城市有历史悠久的华人社区。但大部分资金正涌入“经济特区”，以利用各种激励措施，如审批更快、税收或关税减免、对商品和资本流动管制的放松。\n中国从本世纪头几年开始鼓励企业展开海外投资。发展海外基础设施的宏大计划“一带一路”倡议加速了这一趋势。美国智库史汀生中心（Stimson Centre）的布莱恩·艾勒（Brian Eyler）表示，除铁路、公路和管道外，该倡议也推动经济特区这种“如今中国经济扩张的首选模式”。监管机构“泰国土地观察”（Land Watch Thai）的数据显示，在“一带一路”的旗帜下，已有160家中国企业向老挝经济特区投资了逾15亿美元。2016年至2018年间，中国仅在柬埔寨沿海城市西哈努克城（Sihanoukville）这一个经济特区就投资了10亿美元。\n中国的资本流向哪里，劳动力就流向哪里。在曼德勒，华人占总人口的比例从1983年的1%增至今天的30%到50%。在建立了经济特区的地方，这种转变更加急剧。2019年，西哈努克城所在省份的官员告诉《海峡时报》（Straits Times），之前两年该市华人激增至占总人口的近三分之一。中国移民的经济影响力也随着人数的增长而扩大。2017年的市场调查显示，曼德勒80%的酒店、超过70%的餐厅和45%的珠宝店都由华裔拥有和经营。\n03\n日本的东南亚投资：低调的巨人\n\n中国的海外金融版图引发了极大关注，但在东南亚的基建投资方面，日本仍然显著领先（见图表）。数据供应商惠誉（Fitch Solutions）的数据显示，日本在印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和越南的未完工项目的总投资额为2590亿美元，而中国为1570亿美元。由于新冠疫情导致新建基础设施投资停滞，两国的投资额自2019年以来都有所下降，但日本的领先优势略有扩大。\n\n日本一直不愿意将自己追逐大型基建项目说成是与中国竞争。尽管如此，还是不难看出日本在战略上的变化，尤其是在前首相安倍晋三执政期间。2015年，安倍政府和亚洲开发银行以及其他投资者推出了“高质量基础设施合作伙伴关系”（PQI），承诺在之后的五年内提供1100亿美元的政府和民间资本用于东南亚的基础设施项目（虽然朝向这一目标的进展没有得到密切跟踪）。它反复强调“高质量”的弦外之音在这一地区并非无人意会。\n尽管日本不能像中国那样通过大型国有企业调动私人投资，但相比其他资本主义经济体，其私营部门与政府的关系要密切得多，因而能顺畅地合作。南加州大学的坚田沙织指出，在与中国争夺地区性基础设施项目的过程中，日本有点回到了为它带来二战后经济繁荣的公私部门无缝合作的战略老路上。相比全盛期的“铁三角”（政治上占主导地位的自民党、政府机构和日本财阀），这种合作关系要松泛得多。但对外贸易和投资中的重商主义传统还是显而易见的。\n04\n云计算巨头抢滩东南亚\n\n海外市场占中国科技集团销售额的比例相对较小。去年，腾讯在中国大陆以外的收入约为50亿美元，不到总收入的8%。阿里巴巴的海外收入之少，甚至都懒得公布地区明细。但假如公布出来的话，没什么地方会比东南亚更引人注目。\n该地区有近七亿人口，数字经济增长迅速，关键是没有强硬的地缘政治主张。中国的科技巨头在投资了Lazada（阿里巴巴控股的电商企业）和Sea 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