科技股“泡沫”迹象再现，纳指会重复9月暴跌行情吗？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

科技股“泡沫”迹象再现，纳指会重复9月暴跌行情吗？

英为财情Invest...2020-10-13

科技股最近的飙升，看起来有点似曾相识。虽然刺激方案的谈判毫无实质性进展，估值仍然高企，甚至有国会报告呼吁分拆科技巨头，但纳斯达克100指数周一仍然大涨3.1%，创4月下旬以来最好的单日表现。过去四个交易日累计上涨7%。与此同时，衡量股价潜在波动率的指标并没有下跌，反而是同步上涨——与常识相悖。鉴于潜在波动率走势受到期权价格的指引，这种罕见的同步表明市场对股票期权的需求正在推动股价上涨。这与8月底、...

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小鳄鱼吃小鱼
·2020-10-14
问好好多啊逗比啊都是，狂欢吧
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潘潘a
·2020-10-14
卜 🤨
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-10-14
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奉旨赚钱
·2020-10-13
好像没啥人气啊
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干掉佛祖
·2020-10-13
特朗普说：有他在，美股就不会崩！
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Paul_Lo_6119
·2020-10-13
你牛逼请晒空单
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-10-13
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技股“泡沫”迹象再现，纳指会重复9月暴跌行情吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-13 18:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200457426><strong>英为财情Invest...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>科技股最近的飙升，看起来有点似曾相识。虽然刺激方案的谈判毫无实质性进展，估值仍然高企，甚至有国会报告呼吁分拆科技巨头，但纳斯达克100指数周一仍然大涨3.1%，创4月下旬以来最好的单日表现。过去四个交易日累计上涨7%。与此同时，衡量股价潜在波动率的指标并没有下跌，反而是同步上涨——与常识相悖。鉴于潜在波动率走势受到期权价格的指引，这种罕见的同步表明市场对股票期权的需求正在推动股价上涨。这与8月底、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200457426\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200457426","article_id":"1117389223","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f63b769c643e0ff38e9cbf00081219"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117389223","pubTimestamp":1602586027,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1594375853987","name":"英为财情Investing"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"科技股最近的飙升，看起来有点似曾相识。虽然刺激方案的谈判毫无实质性进展，估值仍然高企，甚至有国会报告呼吁分拆科技巨头，但纳斯达克100指数周一仍然大涨3.1%，创4月下旬以来最好的单日表现。过去四个交","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"Signs of \"bubble\" in technology stocks reappear. Will Nasdaq repeat the September slump?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5054b99c4e621b79ce9994af82bb16a","symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"FB":0.9},"content_text":"科技股最近的飙升，看起来有点似曾相识。虽然刺激方案的谈判毫无实质性进展，估值仍然高企，甚至有国会报告呼吁分拆科技巨头，但纳斯达克100指数周一仍然大涨3.1%，创4月下旬以来最好的单日表现。过去四个交易日累计上涨7%。与此同时，衡量股价潜在波动率的指标并没有下跌，反而是同步上涨——与常识相悖。鉴于潜在波动率走势受到期权价格的指引，这种罕见的同步表明市场对股票期权的需求正在推动股价上涨。这与8月底、9月初科技股所经历的情况并无二致。难道科技股走出9月的暴跌阴影后，又要重蹈覆辙了吗？纳斯达克100指数走势科技股看涨期权逼近到期日，引发需求飙升无论买家是散户还是软银这样的大型机构，市场对于科技股看涨期权的需求飙升在2020年已经变成了熟悉的故事情节。野村证券的查理·麦克埃利格特（Charlie McElligott）在最新的一份研报中指出，看涨期权的大量买入是由单只的股票期权交易量推动的；随着在8月份交易的部分大型科技股看涨期权将于本周五到期，新的看涨期权需求大举卷土重来，迫使做市商做空Gamma，即买入更多的股票来进行风险对冲。周一，在十只成交量最高的期权合约中，苹果 的看涨期权占据了其中的四只；将于周五到期、行使价为125美元的苹果看涨期权有31万张合约易手，成交价比上周五的收盘价翻了两番。亚马逊 的看涨期权成交量已经触及过去五天均值的两倍，刚刚过去的周五，其成交量更高达34万张，创下自1月份以来的最高水平。除了看涨期权交易量的飙升之外，还有一个关键条件是低流动性。早在上周，摩根大通策略师肖恩·奎格（Shawn Quigg）就称，市场的低流动性环境为做市商的做空Gamma做好了铺垫，这会进一步放大市场的走势。泡沫会被马上戳破吗？当然，推动科技股价格走高的可能是一些更为简单的原因，比如说近期大型科技股表现不佳。在周一的大涨之前，纳斯达克100指数在10月份的表现落后于罗素2000小盘股足足6个百分点，是三年来最差的相对收益率。又比如说一些基本面催化剂，像是苹果14日凌晨的新品发布会，和亚马逊13、14日的Prime Day会员日。此外，RBC Capital Markets将苹果的目标价上调至132美元，比上周五的收盘价高出约13%；德意志银行也上调了Facebook 、谷歌等科技巨头的目标价，预计数字广告将强劲复苏。看涨期权的飙升并不意味着科技股将马上迎来暴跌，市场仍有可能维持泡沫状态一段时间。值得注意的是，这次科技股的上涨与8月有一个不同点是：最新的CFTC持仓报告显示，纳斯达克100迷你期货的净非商业空头仓位仍然维持在高位——两周前它们飙升至纪录高位。也就是说，虽然纳斯达克100近期已经有所反弹，但机构投资者仍然维持看空。而在8月份，机构仍然是多头为主。换言之，除了看涨期权需求飙升引发的做空Gamma式行情之外，周一纳斯达克100指数的上升在一定程度上也是轧空行情。但是，既然已经看到了与8月份同的泡沫迹象，投资者就无法完全忽视9月回调行情重现的可能性。正如Interactive Brokers首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）所说，股票价格与隐含波动率同步走高始终是一个反转的警告信号，表明期权市场似乎过于自满。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":309664750,"gmtCreate":1602680263570,"gmtModify":1703827408573,"author":{"id":"3557360781680678","authorId":"3557360781680678","name":"小鳄鱼吃小鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fcfa420ccac4533b28e226286682a12","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6295840391b9cdc17115677ba51429c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3557360781680678","authorIdStr":"3557360781680678"},"htmlText":"问好好多啊逗比啊都是，狂欢吧","listText":"问好好多啊逗比啊都是，狂欢吧","text":"问好好多啊逗比啊都是，狂欢吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309664750","repostId":1117389223,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":309839749,"gmtCreate":1602633310181,"gmtModify":1703827222416,"author":{"id":"3546732691340033","authorId":"3546732691340033","name":"潘潘a","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3546732691340033","authorIdStr":"3546732691340033"},"htmlText":"卜&nbsp; 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