重画2016年以来走势图，这家券商发现了港股“历史性支撑”_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

重画2016年以来走势图，这家券商发现了港股“历史性支撑”

华尔街见闻2022-11-03

国信证券通过重新绘制2016年结构下的恒指走势图，发现恒指又见“历史性的支撑”，在40年的时间中，这种历史性的“大底”位置仅出现过5次，在该位置上买入持有一年收益率的中位数为38%，且正收益概率为100%。2022年过去的10个月里，港股真的很难。恒指从23500点下跌至14600点，跌幅接近38%，创下了自2009年4月以来的最低点。恒生科技指数跌势最大，从6000点下跌至2800点附近，跌幅...

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旷世猛男
·2022-11-03
上涨几率不止100%。听说好人才能挣钱……
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vanhan
·2022-11-03
阅
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vanhan
·2022-11-03
阅
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七宝七好
·2022-11-03
又在忽悠韭菜买入
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1
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就问你是不是傻
·2022-11-03
到底了？确定？
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抢菜抢菜抢菜
·2022-11-03
客气了，至少1000%
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6e6a8ced
·2022-11-03
你知道底在哪？参考日元💴
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喵呜喵
·2022-11-03
刮个台风都要停盘，这么古老的理由都没解决，你觉得港股还有救？！
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- 浴缸潜水员:
  台风停盘是法律规定，不是技术问题。
  2022-11-03
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老li投
·2022-11-03
这次问题太多，各个都是几十年没遇到的
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- Jiaoozi:
  保守了，这次是二战以来最严峻的
  2022-11-03
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打垮华尔街
·2022-11-03
还有的跌，到时候白菜价再入
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年，该支撑变得无效了呢？是因为俄乌冲突？还是因为美国对中概股的PCAOB法案？还是今年的房地产表现低于预期？或者美国加息过快？再或是疫情的持续影响？还是多个因素的合力，超过了港股之前几十年中的所有下跌因素影响？我们很难精确回答以上问题，但是我们注意到：今天的恒指，不再是以前的恒指了——因为它结构发生了巨大的变化，导致股息率过低。由于新经济被快速地引入指数，例如美团、小米集团、百度、阿里健康、阿里巴巴、京东集团、网易、海底捞等等，这些公司的特点是追求成长而股息很少。这样一来，就导致了恒指的分红比率（股利/净利润）的大幅下滑。在经济扩张期时，这个影响不显著，因为投资者更关注的是成长指标，但在经济收缩期中，分红比率的下滑就意味着股息率的下滑，加之对未来前景的存疑，新指数就缺乏了投资吸引力。下图是恒生指数的历史分红比率的变化：可以看出，恒生指数的分红比率（恒指的股利/净利润）在2021年创了近20年的新低，至23%，然而历史上平均值为40%。于是，我们有了一个实际的想法，如果股息率是在经济收缩期测算底部安全边际的有效工具，而2016年之后，恒指因为引入了新兴经济而指数有了质的变化，那么我们可以用2016年的恒指结构，即尚未引入批量新经济时期的恒指结构，来测算该指数目前的位置，以及股息率。带着这个想法，我们绘制了2016年结构下的恒指走势图（采用的是2016年1月份的恒指成分股及权重），可以看出，采用2016年结构的恒指，10月收盘价还在25443点，足足高过当下恒指10000点！两者很大的差异是：老恒指（2016年结构恒指）提供了更高的股息！于是，我们再绘制这样一张图：2016年前，我们采用恒生指数。2016年之后，我们用2016年结构的恒指替代（即假定恒指结构没有调整），用以观察其支撑。这一次，我们发现这个“带股息率”的恒指在2022年10月，再一次打到了历史的支撑上。该支撑自1980年以来的42年的时间里，无一例外的成为港股的重要底部。包括1998年的亚洲金融危机底、2003年的非典底、2008年的金融危机底、2016年的港汇波动底。有两点需要额外说明：1、其中，在2008年，极限低点距离支撑线22%，也就是说，参考历史，就2022年10月份的最低价，向下的最大空间为22%。2008年最低点当天，恒指股息率为6.6%；我们测算的2022 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