史上最动荡的半年：股债双杀，油价狂飙，A股渐入牛境_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

史上最动荡的半年：股债双杀，油价狂飙，A股渐入牛境

华尔街见闻2022-06-30

作者：韩旭阳在经历了两年的疫情混乱之后，今年上半年的全球市场经历了一段十分颠簸的旅程。在股票市场，全球47个国家的MSCI全球股指遭遇了自1990年创立以来的最大上半年跌幅，全球股市蒸发了13万亿美元，美国基准股指陷入熊市区间。大型科技股纷纷遭到“屠杀”：今年以来，Meta（Facebook母公司）暴跌50%，苹果和谷歌跌23%，亚马逊跌36%。经济衰退恐慌迅速蔓延。与此同时，债市也“血流成河”。...

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游士_7495
·2022-07-01
韩先生就当个250装睡的认，叫不醒装睡的人
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游士_7495
·2022-07-01
不吹牛皮会死吗？
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深圳王爷
·2022-07-01
会写这种标题的家伙我都懒得喷，美股高点在半年前，A股历史最高点在十五年前，光凭这点就啥也没必要说了。
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猛逃
·2022-06-30
正常的股市走牛走熊都很平常。只能走牛不能走熊、不能作空的股市、房市都是不正常的，对于不正常的市场，避之不及也⋯⋯[思考]
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- zay:
  波动起来
  2022-07-01
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- 逸逸外婆:
  是的，股市就该这样的
  2022-07-01
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- 陈国阳1:
  可以
  2022-07-01
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查看更多 2 条评论
XeeNoComment
·2022-06-30
呵，A股牛市，机制上就不允许，牛市都是昙花一现！
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黑皮东东
·2022-06-30
韩先生？（如果是），你是否认为可以用中国方式解决全球问题！
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表示：预计政府债券在六个月内的跌幅不会超过10%。对大多数投资者来说，这是一个陌生的领域。各国央行已经看到市场面临压力，但尚未做出反应。俄乌冲突加剧了本已快速飙升的通胀，迫使各大央行上调利率，政治家们对全球新秩序发出了警告。大宗商品领域出现了自第一次世界大战以来最强劲的涨势：石油和天然气价格上涨了50%和60%，正在加剧全球通胀。这是自2009年以来油价最大的上半年涨幅。除此之外，小麦和玉米价格也上涨了20%和30%。因此，美国银行估计，整体的大宗商品领域将迎来自1915年以来表现最好的一年。但自3月以来，铜价下跌了近20%，这是其自2020年初疫情以来的最大季度跌幅，镍和锌分别下跌了20%和25%。美国银行大宗商品分析师 Michael Widmer 表示，市场可能会出现更多波动，主要原因是供应有限。他警告称：“未来6个月要面临的问题将尤其严重。”William Blair 的投资组合经理 Daniel Wood 表示这几乎是一场完美的风暴。新兴市场上半年也创下史上最差表现。波动性已经到了顶点。在货币市场，美元的强劲势头使其在上半年对一篮子全球主要货币升值了9%，对日元汇率上涨了15.5%，日元汇率已经处于1998年以来的最低水平。土耳其的通胀和其政策问题使里拉又贬值了20%；埃及作为最大的小麦进口国之一，现在已经被迫将其货币贬值超过15%。而处于另一个极端的是，俄罗斯的卢布汇率升值了40%。实际上，有两种货币兑美元的汇率依然保持上涨——巴西的雷亚尔和墨西哥的比索，分别上涨了6%和2%。与此同时，加密货币市场也受到了最近 TerraUSD 和 Luna “稳定币”崩盘的打击，比特币在今年第二季度暴跌55%。但市场也正试图看到一些积极因素：中国股市正接近进入牛市区间，已经从底部上涨了近20%。德意志银行的 Jim Reid 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