摩根大通的CPI剧本：一旦今晚通胀低于7%，美股可能暴涨10%_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

摩根大通的CPI剧本：一旦今晚通胀低于7%，美股可能暴涨10%

华尔街见闻2022-12-13

无论通胀数据如何，美股都或将在今夜迎来更大波动。相较于本周三即将发布的FOMC声明，将于今晚公布的美国11月CPI数据更加牵动全球市场的心，可能直接左右美联储在12月的加息行动。目前的市场共识预期是，11月CPI数据或将同比增长7.3%，环比上升0.3%；核心CPI同比增长6.1%，环比同步上升0.3%，各项预测均较上月有所降温。并且考虑到近期大宗商品等价格的下行趋势，市场人士纷纷大胆猜测更为“...

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盘前盘后不一样
·2022-12-13
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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专注的投资者
·2022-12-13
感觉有点在赌CPI数据
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lllygz
·2022-12-13
高于上次呢？
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Fred_6810
·2022-12-13
我三倍杠杆，~30%期待
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Fred_6810
·2022-12-13
可不可以降低预期?
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catbig
·2022-12-13
反之亦然
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宛若一
·2022-12-13
吓死人
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CPI数据达到7.8%或更高水平，美股下跌4%-5%这意味着12月通胀较上月继续升温，或将进入重新加速的阶段，投资者也将因此怀疑11月数据是否出现了异常。在这种情况下，标普500指数将下跌4%-5%，发生概率为5%。2. CPI数据达到7.5%-7.7%的区间，美股下跌2.5%-3.5%如果11月通胀较前值放缓，但是放缓程度却未能达到0.2%，标普500指数或将下跌2.3%。若叠加近期的熊市反弹，市场或将出现更为剧烈的波动，届时标普500指数将下跌2.5%-3.5%，发生概率为25%。3. CPI数据达到7.2%-7.4%的区间，美股上涨2%-3%（可能性最大）若CPI数据触及这一区间，则将利好市场表现。并且考虑到12月的股市仓位虽仍处于历史低位，但是较11月有所回升，积极的CPI数据可能会引发空头回补，并推高近期交易区间，将标普500指数从3700-3900点推升至3850-4150点。在这种情况下，标普500指数将单日上涨2%-3%，发生概率为50%。4. CPI数据达到7.0%-7.2%的区间，美股大涨4%-5%更为乐观的通胀数据或将直接拉低明年美联储利率峰值，并且如果大宗商品价格进一步下降，股市多头有望高调进场。标普500指数将上涨4%-5%，发生概率为15%。5. CPI数据达到6.9%或更低水平，美股暴涨8%-10%若本次CPI能降温至如此程度，股市大涨或将带领美股走向本轮熊市的终点（较去年10月低点的反弹幅度已超过20%）。市场在此的逻辑是，通胀高烧正在加速消退，这将增强投资者对整体通胀在明年降至3%的信心。并且一旦CPI能回归至3%，无论劳动力市场火热程度如何，美联储似乎都不太可能将利率峰值维持在5%，而美联储的任何转向行动都将震撼股市。因此今晚标普500指数有可能暴涨8%-10%，发生概率为5%。无论数据如何 美股或将迎来更大波动不仅摩根大通预计市场会对大幅低于预期的通胀数据做出反应，根据金融产品做市商Optiver汇编的数据，市场或将迎来波动行情。数据显示，如果核心CPI数据像上月一样同比放缓0.2个百分点，今夜标普500指数涨幅至多将达到5.5%。但若数据出现“反方向”变化，即超预期上升0.2个百分点，标普500指数或将以下跌6%作为回应。媒体称，Optiver股票研究主管Tom Borgen-Davis在最新邮件中写道：鉴于11月CPI数据和12月9日的PPI数据，市场显然认为尾部波动的可能性更大。也有媒体曾分析称：很容易看出这些剧烈的市场波动预期来自何处。本周二的CPI数据报告、周三的FOMC议息会议和将于本周五的月度期权交割，可能会致使股市在12月上演季节性反弹，或将引发进一步的暴跌。而无论哪种情况发生，交易员均认为今晚标普500的波动率将较正常水平高出2.5%。根据Optiver的数据，综合近十几年来通胀数据发布当天的表现，本周二的溢价水平已经挤进前列。再加上，大量的短期期权交易可能会加剧通胀数据公布后的市场波动。彭博社汇编的数据显示，截止到12月15日本周四的标普500指数超短期期权是本周五交易量最大的合约之一，部分合约的交易量在某些情况下猛增25000%。合约的行权价在3500-4200美元之间，而标普500指数在上周五的收盘价为3934.38美元。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":623054704,"gmtCreate":1670939539409,"gmtModify":1670939541107,"author":{"id":"3491768000520904","authorId":"3491768000520904","name":"盘前盘后不一样","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3491768000520904","authorIdStr":"3491768000520904"},"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623054704","repostId":1110012637,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623056134,"gmtCreate":1670937844828,"gmtModify":1670937846530,"author":{"id":"3522994245105188","authorId":"3522994245105188","name":"专注的投资者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87dfad76100f77d00b16fd822ca41ae","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522994245105188","authorIdStr":"3522994245105188"},"htmlText":"感觉有点在赌CPI数据","listText":"感觉有点在赌CPI数据","text":"感觉有点在赌CPI数据","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623056134","repostId":1110012637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623026465,"gmtCreate":1670932830158,"gmtModify":1670932832018,"author":{"id":"3491288457950231","authorId":"3491288457950231","name":"lllygz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd69481eaef99582452309cafc58849b","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3491288457950231","authorIdStr":"3491288457950231"},"htmlText":"高于上次呢？","listText":"高于上次呢？","text":"高于上次呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623026465","repostId":1110012637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623028972,"gmtCreate":1670931732196,"gmtModify":1670931734088,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227"},"htmlText":"我三倍杠杆，~30%期待","listText":"我三倍杠杆，~30%期待","text":"我三倍杠杆，~30%期待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623028972","repostId":1110012637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623021618,"gmtCreate":1670931475734,"gmtModify":1670931477373,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227"},"htmlText":"可不可以降低预期?","listText":"可不可以降低预期?","text":"可不可以降低预期?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623021618","repostId":1110012637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623021066,"gmtCreate":1670931046155,"gmtModify":1670931047828,"author":{"id":"4110461951632430","authorId":"4110461951632430","name":"catbig","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d555f5f3ec452d5d46b80f9b89ed55","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4110461951632430","authorIdStr":"4110461951632430"},"htmlText":"反之亦然","listText":"反之亦然","text":"反之亦然","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623021066","repostId":1110012637,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623029304,"gmtCreate":1670930438909,"gmtModify":1670930440682,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"宛若一","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d546312891fb2eee822e9aaed7184f","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3439498180568292","authorIdStr":"34394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