9月非农爆冷，会影响美联储11月taper吗?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

9月非农爆冷，会影响美联储11月taper吗?

东吴证券2021-10-09

作者：段萌，陶川美国东部时间10月8日，美国劳工部公布9月非农就业数据：9月新增非农就业19.4万，远低于市场预期的50万;失业率降至4.8%，但劳动参与率下滑0.1%至61.6%。本次非农数据爆冷，主要受到政府部门就业减少的拖累，不过7月和8月的数据被上修共计16.9万，缓解了9月数据的疲软，新增就业3个月移动平均值仍接近60万。总体来看，我们认为9月非农虽然不及预期，但对于11月的taper...

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180

Sen001
·2021-10-11
[财迷]
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- Sen001:
  OK
  2021-10-11
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Youn7276
·2021-10-11
阅
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3
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CKWAI
·2021-10-10
来
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3
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-10-10
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白白玻璃菜
·2021-10-10
感谢分享
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- Youn7276:
  好
  2021-10-11
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T20211211017
·2021-10-10
好
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3
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- T20211211017:
  😄
  2021-10-10
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hhyw
·2021-10-10
好
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5
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- 滚股怪:
  Good
  2021-10-10
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mjng
·2021-10-10
Great
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5
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中国ChinaATM
·2021-10-10
卡农
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Youn7276
·2021-10-10
阅
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5
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- 快乐玩美股:
  [财迷]
  2021-10-10
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- kimxuan:
  [微笑]
  2021-10-10
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BabyShark222
·2021-10-09
唉
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- BabyShark222:
  唉三小
  2021-10-09
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- Paulyang:
  哎三小
  2021-10-10
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- Youn7276:
  好
  2021-10-11
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康康的
·2021-10-09
好
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- 康康的:
  好
  2021-10-09
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疑问
·2021-10-09
应该会在11月宣布taper, 明年开始实行，其实都是迟早的事
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- 云里梦里飞:
  可能会反复
  2021-10-09
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- Youn7276:
  好
  2021-10-10
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BRAVERY
·2021-10-09
來看看，在家躺著賺
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西餐
·2021-10-09
美国关心的核心是通胀、失业率；作为专业平台不要这么幼稚。这个问题值得讨论吗？就业率和失业率不是一个等量级，如果失业率是百万级，就业率就是10万级；会一样吗？
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- 云里梦里飞:
  媒体只为了流量
  2021-10-09
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- 53570b80:
  哎
  2021-10-11
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春天的小麦
·2021-10-09
发钱太多在家躺着就能赚钱为什么上班呢[微笑]
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CKWAI
·2021-10-09
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-10-09
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- zh2021:
  [鬼脸]
  2021-10-09
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- CJing:
  [强]
  2021-10-11
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href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/571611.html><strong>东吴证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：段萌，陶川\n美国东部时间10月8日，美国劳工部公布9月非农就业数据：9月新增非农就业19.4万，远低于市场预期的50万;失业率降至4.8%，但劳动参与率下滑0.1%至61.6%。本次非农数据爆冷，主要受到政府部门就业减少的拖累，不过7月和8月的数据被上修共计16.9万，缓解了9月数据的疲软，新增就业3个月移动平均值仍接近60万。总体来看，我们认为9月非农虽然不及预期，但对于11月的taper...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/571611.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/571611.html","article_id":"1107737901","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107737901","pubTimestamp":1633745834,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1593671620391","name":"东吴证券(国际)研报"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"总体来看，我们认为9月非农虽然不及预期，但对于11月的taper影响不大。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Will the non-agricultural cold in September affect the Fed's paper in 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good”)，我们预计十一月宣布taper的问题不大。\n加息方面，部分美联储官员的讲话表示充分就业是加息的条件。相对于美国国会预算办公室2020年的预测数据，当前美国经济距离充分就业仍有约700万的缺口。如果按照当前速度，月均新增就业约50万人，首次加息时点可能递延至2023年，晚于当前市场2022年12月的预期。更加乐观的假设下，若月均新增60万就业人数的速度来测算，12个月后(2022年9月)便可达到充分就业的条件。\n总体来说，我们将持续跟踪美国就业数据，并提示警惕在经济即将达到充分就业情况下的加息风险。此外，在疫情反复、飓风等外部因素的扰动下，劳动力供给侧的改善可能慢于市场预期，薪资上涨风险可能加剧通胀压力。\n风险提示：疫情扩散超预期，国内外政策超预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":828698538,"gmtCreate":1633908389698,"gmtModify":1633908389808,"author":{"id":"3584077952141019","authorId":"3584077952141019","name":"Sen001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6443dc6111d144d09291a133ffcb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584077952141019","authorIdStr":"3584077952141019"},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828698538","repostId":1107737901,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6155433,"gmtCreate":1633908397981,"gmtModify":1634716753521,"authorId":3584077952141019,"author":{"id":3584077952141019,"idStr":"3584077952141019","authorId":3584077952141019,"name":"Sen001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6443dc6111d144d09291a133ffcb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":828698538,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"OK","text":"OK","html":"OK"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":828821105,"gmtCreate":1633902815688,"gmtModify":1633902824836,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828821105","repostId":1107737901,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":828895852,"gmtCreate":1633879800262,"gmtModify":1633879800335,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorIdStr":"3576460381606543"},"htmlText":"来","listText":"来","text":"来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828895852","repostId":1107737901,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6153745,"gmtCreate":1633879810915,"gmtModify":1634716895983,"authorId":3576460381606543,"author":{"id":3576460381606543,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorId":3576460381606543,"name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":828895852,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"谢谢","text":"谢谢","html":"谢谢"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":828109147,"gmtCreate":1633855319877,"gmtModify":1633855319877,"author":{"id":"4089333678543710","authorId":"4089333678543710","name":"白白玻璃菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74206f695cebe3211a72720eb0f368","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089333678543710","authorIdStr":"4089333678543710"},"htmlText":"感谢分享","listText":"感谢分享","text":"感谢分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828109147","repostId":1107737901,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6154501,"gmtCreate":1633902835233,"gmtModify":1634716839133,"authorId":3577393549070429,"author":{"id":3577393549070429,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorId":3577393549070429,"name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":828109147,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好","text":"好","html":"好"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":828378539,"gmtCreate":1633853827878,"gmtModify":1633853827994,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"T20211211017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlight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