巴菲特唯一加仓！他看到了什么？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

巴菲特唯一加仓！他看到了什么？

华尔街见闻2021-11-17

此前公布的巴菲特三季度上市公司持仓报告显示，三季度巴老还是在净卖出股票——19亿美元，加上一季度净卖出的39亿和二季度的11亿，今年以来巴老已经合计“减持”约70亿美元。估计未来公布四季度报告，2021年整年的减持量还会更高。美东时间11月15日，巴菲特的三季度持仓报告进一步公布了“细节”，结果在大量的减持和“按兵不动”中，巴老仅对一家公司进行了增持。巴老这是看到了什么？ 01、三季度报告“...

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稳稳的幸福520
·2021-11-18
股神[强] [666]
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- 稳稳的幸福520:
  [爱心]
  2021-11-18
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Lei1349
·2021-11-17
巴老估计市场在顶峰。手握现金更多安全
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唯物主义
·2021-11-17
不错
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嘞撸虎7
·2021-11-17
阅
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Fly2022
·2021-11-17
学习了👍
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方寸天地
·2021-11-17
股神的神操作
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雪佛龙在巴菲特建仓时的股息分红年率，高达6%；这是一个非常有竞争力的现金比例。\n2. 更重要的是，雪佛龙有能力在可预见的未来保持这一比率。（现在美股的分红都有债券化倾向，只要企业不陷入严重亏损，分红都是每个季度一次，就像美债的支付周期一样，而且非常稳定，加大了资金从债券市场持续向权益市场配置的动力）根据雪佛龙的测算（巴老肯定对此进行过验证，否则不会贸然下重手加仓），未来原油价格在60美元的情况下，未来5年将为股东创造250亿美元的“超额现金”回报。\n以上“承诺”有两个亮点：\n1）250亿美元的现金回报，是基于60美元/桶的原油价格。如果在此期间，油价高于60美元，实际现金回报只会更高；\n2）这250亿现金之所以叫做“超额”现金，是因为其并不包括分红现金和100亿美元的投资现金；换言之，在每年进行过6%的分红，并进行完巨额的新能源投资之后，还会剩这么多现金。\n巴菲特加仓雪佛龙时的成本约100美元，市值2000亿美元，五年250亿美元的“超额现金”意味着一年至少50亿，比例2.5%，再加上当时价格6%的分红，年回报8.5%。这还没包括里面暗含的新能源“期权”价格。\n芒格之前明确说过，伯克希尔喜欢现金流强大的公司，不喜欢那些只有账面利润，同时又把帐面利润变成固定资产的公司；而巴菲特持仓“从古至今”也都是这个路数——这也是为什么伯克希尔会“错过”特斯拉和亚马逊，因为它们现金流太差，而现在又把亚马逊加上了，在很大程度上也是因为亚马逊已经基本完成垄断，进入了可以提供稳定现金流的阶段。\n保险公司么，体量已经这么大了，能够稳定地吃融资成本和投资回报之间的“利差”，就是王道。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":878843903,"gmtCreate":1637173175412,"gmtModify":1637173175412,"author":{"id":"4097750500226180","authorId":"4097750500226180","name":"稳稳的幸福520","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83dc2c62153607ce13dd4163f6008fc","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4097750500226180","idStr":"4097750500226180"},"htmlText":"股神[强]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;","listText":"股神[强]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;","text":"股神[强] 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